Fisker Ocean pictured above

Transfer Provision Details

The transfer provision is now in place for the federal incentive. This allows the buyer to transfer the tax credit to the seller and take the incentive as, in effect, a point of sale rebate, even if it technically still is a tax credit. Consumers still have the option to take the tax credit the old-fashioned way if they so choose.

The benefit of the transfer provision is the point of sale immediacy, but also the fact that a consumer does not need to have tax liability in order to utilize the credit. (The tax credit is non-refundable and has no carry-forward provision.) Another benefit of the transfer provision is that if you are financing the vehicle, it lowers the amount of interest paid because you are financing a smaller amount. The incentive does not lower the sales tax.

Dealer Registration

A dealership has to register at a portal created by the Treasury Department. This portal captures the transactions, the associated VINs, and enables the process whereby the Treasury issues reimbursement for the incentive to the seller and verifies the transaction at tax filing time. This applies to both new and used EVs. It also applies regardless of whether you are taking the transfer or the standard tax credit. In other words, if you are counting on the incentive, don’t waste your time speaking with an unregistered dealer.

According to Treasury press releases, about 50% of new car dealers have registered. This could still increase over time. Sellers of vehicles that are not eligible may not have a reason to register at present, though they would still need to if they sell used EVs. Not every dealer who registers gets approved, though we don’t have detail as to why that would be. Buyers of a vehicle from an unregistered dealer only get the standard tax credit.

Only a very small percentage of the 150,000 used car dealers have registered. Big sellers like Carmax and Carvana have not registered. Nor has Hertz which has been selling a large number of used Teslas.

There is no master list from Treasury delineating which dealerships have registered. This is very disappointing. The only option for consumers is to directly ask the dealership. (Some dealerships are advertising their registration.) We recommend making sure a dealer is registered before going there to shop if you are thinking about using the transfer.

The dealer issues a seller’s report for the transfer. You must get this before the car leaves the lot. If you do not, the only option available to you is the standard tax credit.

VIN Verification

Final determination of vehicle eligibility cannot be made until a VIN is available. Hopefully, dealers will be supported by their affiliated manufacturers and be able to accurately represent the status of a vehicle, including build to order.

Used EVs

A reminder, incentive-eligible used EVs must be at least two years older than the current model year and have not previously had an incentive associated with the VIN. Almost no used EVs have received an incentive, so for the time being the prior incentive consideration is largely beside the point. The income limits (see below) are half what they are for new EVs and the negotiated price must not exceed $25,000. Used EVs are eligible for the transfer provision. Hopefully, more used car dealers will register. In the near term, the transfer is more likely to be available from a new car dealer that also sells used EVs.

Battery Rules Lead to a Reduction in Eligible Vehicles

The new rules for 2024 are in effect, specifically higher thresholds for battery critical minerals, battery assembly, and the implementation of the first half of the foreign entity of concern (FEoC) rule. For the FEoC, no battery component assembly can take place in China as of this year.

A car must certified by the manufacturer that it meets the requirements and must appear on the EPA list at FuelEconomy.gov to be incentive-eligible.

It is not a surprise that the number of incentive-eligible vehicles has decreased. We expect a gradual recovery going forward as more North American assembly and battery plants come online, and more critical minerals come from eligible sources.

Income/MSRP Cap

The non-battery-related provisions of the incentive rules remain in place.

The income limit is $300K/$225K/$150K for joint/head of household/individual filers respectively. This refers to modified adjusted gross income. You can fulfill this requirement with either your current or prior year income. There is one exception to this, which is if you get married during the year you bought the vehicle and the income of your new spouse put you over the limit, you would not be disqualified.

The federal incentive has an MSRP cap of $55K for sedans and $80K for an SUV. The definition of MSRP includes factory-installed options but not software.

Discounting

We have been seeing reports that several manufacturers, and we have specifically seen reports of GM, Ford, and Hyundai, discounting vehicles to partially or fully compensate for the lack of an incentive. This is an example from GM Authority. Discounting is even better than an incentive because it lowers the sales tax.

Leasing

None of this changes the fact that these rules don’t affect leases. The finance company that holds the lease receives the incentive and it is not subject to battery, assembly or any other rules. The lessor is not required to pass the incentive to the consumer. And leasing costs tend to be opaque due to the different factors that determine them. That places a greater burden on the consumer to obtain the specifics of if/how the incentive is incorporated into the monthly rate. All of that said, however, EV leasing has shot up rapidly, as can be seen in this chart from The Peterson Institute for International Economics, using data from Edmonds. The biggest increases are from non-North American brands, so apparently, the incentive is getting passed along.

Advanced Clean Cars II Campaign

The bureaucratic term of art for the air quality in Connecticut is non-compliant. Yes, it’s dirty. We do not meet the requirements of the EPA clean air rules. Transportation is the most polluting sector and the easiest to decarbonize. The technology is here. It is steadily declining in cost. The ACC II regulations, the follow on to the first set of California standards, will get us there faster and with better consumer protections.

With the fate of this program hanging in the balance, and a concerted push from fossil fuel interests to kill it, the advocates have placed ads in local newspapers, billboards, and on chargers that accept ads. This is the ad that appeared in the CT Post. If you are concerned about cleaning up our air by accelerating EV adoption, please tell you state legislators. They need to hear from you now.

Also, see our op-ed in the CT Mirror.

Post by Barry Kresch

Can You Recommend a Dealership?

It is a common query we get. A consumer is shopping for an EV that isn’t a Tesla, Rivian, or Lucid. Maybe they had a poor dealer experience or their friend had a poor experience. Either way, they don’t want to waste their time walking into a dealership only for a salesperson to try and switch pitch them to ICE. That is by far the biggest complaint we hear. Followed by dealers who are clueless about EVs generally, don’t have a vehicle charged for a test drive, whose one EV expert “isn’t here right now,” or don’t know the incentives.

Using CHEAPR as a Proxy

While we have had personal interactions with some dealers, there are 270 licensed new car dealers in the state and we certainly don’t know all of them. Our workaround is to use CHEAPR rebates as a proxy. It isn’t perfect as some dealers do not sell CHEAPR-eligible vehicles. (The CHEAPR program has an MSRP* cap of $50,000.) And some manufacturers barely make any EVs. But for certain makes, it works well. We sort the data by make and compare like to like.

This information was compiled using data from the CHEAPR portal through December 21. There were 3677 CHEAPR rebates awarded in 2023 to this point. The program has been running pretty hot. Of these, 2022 were for Tesla and the remaining 1655 were spread amongst the other makes.

While we don’t quite have the entire year, we do have plenty of data to portray the good, bad and the ugly. As we have seen in past years, some dealers do a great job and some don’t even seem to know how to spell “EV.” There may be (and probably are) dealers for a given make that do not appear in these charts. That would happen if they had zero rebates.

Both battery electric vehicles (BEV) and plug-in hybrid vehicles (PHEV) are included in the data. The first chart is the number of rebates by make for non-Tesla brands, followed by dealership detail for all makes with a minimum of 10 rebates, listed alphabetically by make.

*The MSRP cap in CHEAPR is the base price of a given trim level, before options.

Photo above of the school bus battery pack

More EVs and More First-Responder Training

The EV club got its first request a couple of years ago from the Westport fire department asking if the club could have some owners bring their EVs to a training session. Since then, the requests have become more frequent. EVs are a lot more visible now but not widespread enough that help wrangling them isn’t needed. The club has supported trainings in Westport, Wilton, Fairfield, Northvale, Enfield, and now New Haven. This particular New Haven session was organized by Greater New Haven Clean Cities.

Participation

The EV Club greatly appreciates the EV owners who have brought their vehicles to these trainings to support our first-responders. If readers of this blog are interested in participating in future requests – and there will be some, we just don’t know when or where – please reach out to the EV Club using our webform or at info@evclubct.com

Firefighters See Several EVs and Electric Schoolbus

EVs present unique challenges in a serious accident. People may need to be extricated and firefighters must learn where the cable connections are and how to de-power the vehicle (assuming the vehicle hasn’t already done so on its own, which many are programmed to do). And in the event of a fire, special procedures must be employed.

This was a particularly well-attended session with approximately 60 first-responders in attendance.

EVs present were a Kia Niro, Tesla Model Y, Chevy Bolt, Chevy Volt, Ford F-150 Lightning, and an electric school bus.  CT has received a federal grant for 50 electric school buses, so the presence of a bus was timely.

The bus has a 317 kWh battery and gets 200 miles of range. It is equipped for bi-directional charging, though it hasn’t been enabled. One of the issues for bi-directional is that there is still a lot to be learned about how the battery will hold up with numerous additional cycles and who is responsible if it needs to be replaced prematurely. In some places, the utility owns the battery and takes responsibility, but that kind of arrangement is not in effect in CT.

The Chevy Blazer, pictured above, is one example of a vehicle losing the incentive.

Most EVs Lose Federal Incentive Eligibility

Unsurprisingly, as we have been forecasting for months, many EVs lost eligibility for the federal IRA incentive. This is due to the step-up in battery critical minerals sourcing and battery component manufacturing requirements, as well as the first half of the implementation of the foreign entities of concern rule. EV advocacy groups, manufacturers, and others have provided input to the Treasury Department during the public comment periods as this was all foreseeable. But not many changes were made.

Below is the list of every BEV and PHEV that is incentive-eligible as of January 4. This is fluid, and vehicles that have lost eligibility can regain it at any time. Manufacturers are wrangling their supply chains to become IRA-compliant as quickly as they can. These are screenshots directly from the Department of Energy (DOE) Website. We advise checking the DOE website for updates if you are in the market as it is updated continuously. We expect to be in this period of volatility for a couple of years.

BEVs

PHEVs

There are some notable absences here, such as the two less expensive trim levels of the Tesla Model 3, every GM vehicle not named Bolt, and the Ford Mustang Mach-E to name a few.

Notice what is listed to the right of each MSRP: “Check VIN.” The DOE website is intended as a general guide, but the determination for a specific vehicle is made at the level of, well, the specific vehicle. Manufacturers must register eligible VINs with the Treasury. Consumers must list the VIN on their tax return and are able to check VIN eligibility on the DOE website.

Same Model, Different Incentive

Different vehicles of the exact same make/model/model year can have different incentive eligibility. It could be due to changes in manufacturing supply chains during the model year. It could be timing, as model years are most frequently introduced in the fall, but the requirements change on January 1. The eligibility is also based on the “date placed in service,” which is the date the consumer takes possession. An eligible vehicle on December 31 may no longer be eligible on January 1. (Part of our input was to align the requirements with model year to minimize this. Manufacturers suggested at least basing it on the date of manufacture.) Finally, as foreign automakers stand up manufacturing in North America, there can be a mix of imported and domestically produced vehicles of the same model, potentially on the same dealership lot.

Yellow Flag

If a vehicle is purchased from inventory, there is a VIN. But for build to order purchases, there will not be a definitive incentive eligibility determination until the VIN is available, which is often a short time before delivery. In a dealership environment, where salesperson EV knowledge can be lacking, consumers will need to be vigilant. We wish there were an easier answer.

GM Workaround

GM lost incentives for all its EVs other than the soon to be discontinued Bolt but is discounting those previously eligible vehicles by $7500 until they regain eligibility, as reported by Reuters and others. GM attributed the incentive setback to minor components which are being re-sourced and expected fairly soon. Anyway, a discount is even better than an incentive because it also reduces the sales tax.

Reminders

None of this incentive mishegoss applies to leased vehicles. However, the seller has discretion regarding whether to pass along the incentive.

The transfer provision goes into effect this month. Tax credits can be transferred to the seller with the consumer receiving a point of purchase rebate. It also benefits buyers who would not otherwise have enough tax liability to burn off a tax credit.

Photo above – JuiceBox Home EV Charger

EV Club member, Vincent Giordano, has utilized the Eversource incentives to buy a level 2 home EV charger and participate in the incentive to charge off-peak. In the 2-part post below, also published in the Ridgefield Press, he describes his experience and how the incentive worked for him. Vincent is a member of the Ridgefield Action Committee for the Environment (RACE).

The process whereby consumers have been accessing these incentives has not always been without hurdles, but we have been receiving reports from consumers that the utilities have been responsive in addressing issues. The club has a description of the program on its incentives page. The incentives he describes from Eversource are also available, with some small differences, from United Illuminating. So, take it away, Vincent…

Level 2 Home Charger

If you have an electric vehicle (EV) or are thinking about buying one, Eversource will help you pay for an electrical upgrade, a networked level 2 EV charger, and for charging the EV. Hard to believe – but it is true. Eversource currently has a program to rebate up to $500 for a wiring upgrade to 240 volts for your EV charger, another $500 for purchasing a network-ed level 2 EV charger, and up to $300 per year if you sign up for the advanced managed charging program.

Why is Eversource offering these incentives? It is because they realize the huge impact EVs are going to have on the grid and the importance of managing the demand for power. According to CT DMV data, Ridgefield residents own more than 515 EVs and there are more than 30,000 registered EVs in CT. Having networked EVs allows Eversource to minimize EV charging when the grid is under pressure. In the future, with bidirectional charging, Eversource will also be positioned to buy power back from EVs.

I didn’t need to upgrade my electric wiring so I passed on the wiring rebate. However, since I ran over my charger cord with the snow blower this past winter, a new and improved EV charger was intriguing. In April I purchased one of the Eversource approved EV chargers, a JuiceBox. Then I attempted to apply for my $500 rebate and to register for the advanced managed charging program. I would like to be able to report a seamless rebate and registration process. But in truth, it was more convoluted and difficult than it had to be. Thankfully, each time I ended up in some administrative trap or do-loop, the Eversource EV team came to my rescue.

This week, I received a $500 rebate check, and in October I should be receiving a gift card with the managed charging payment. The demand response season is June – September. If you are interested in these rebates, a good starting point is the Eversource FAQs for the managed charging program.

With CT’s grid 90 percent renewable energy by 2030, transitioning from fossil fuels to CT’s grid will help to save the planet and reduce US reliance on dictators with huge oil reserves and territorial ambitions.

December Update and Managed Charging

I just received a $95 check from Eversource for charging my Chevy Volt for 5 months (May to September).  During those months I used 693.43 kWh of electricity to charge my car.  At 10.45 cents per kWh, my cost was $72.46.  So the $95 check more than covered my outlay.  And now that I understand the programs better, I could have earned even more.

In an earlier article, I explained the fantastic Eversource rebate program for electric chargers and any needed electrical upgrade.  In this article, I share my experience with Eversource’s charging programs.  There are more than 600 electric vehicles registered to Ridgefielders and just 90 of us are enrolled in Eversource’s charging programs.

Our family has a 2016 Chevy Volt plug in hybrid.  It is our day to day; go-to vehicle.   Other than in the coldest months, the Volt has a 60-mile range which easily meets all our local travel needs.  We go about our business and charge at home.  Starting each day with a full charge.   When I read that Eversource would pay up to $300 per year to charge our car, I decided to give their programs a try.

There are two programs.  A baseline and advanced charging program.  The baseline program rewards participants who shift at least 80% of their charging to off-peak periods.  Off-peak charging is charging outside of the hours of 3 pm to 9 pm on weekdays.  If, in a given month, you manage to charge 80% or more during the off-peak period, you earn a $10 incentive for that month.  That’s a potential earnings of $120 annually.   There is an additional incentive for participating in optional Demand Response (DR) Events. These events can happen between June and September and only occur on non-holiday weekdays.  You must participate in all optional DR events in a given month in order to receive the $20 incentive during DR Season.  Full participation in all four months of the DR Season, and you earn an additional $80.   The baseline tier incentives are capped at $200 per year.

The advanced charging program gives Eversource more control over your charger.  You are rewarded for partnering with them to coordinate your charging.  You are required to create a charging schedule and to do your best to not override this schedule.  You specify how much of a charge you would like and by when (e.g. 100% charge by 8 am).    The charging schedule is created at the time you enroll via energy hub.  Hang onto that email if you want to change your schedule in the future.  Participation in the advance program pays the participant $25 per month, capped at $300 per year

So how did I earn $95.  It turns out that I just missed the off-peak goal in May (76% vs. the 80% goal).  In June, I missed the goal again (66% vs. 80% goal), but I didn’t opt out of any DR events in June so I earned $20.  In July, I joined the Advanced Program and earned the advanced Tier incentives for July, August, and September ($25/month = $75). Thus a total of $95.  For our charging habits, the advanced charging program seems to be just fine.

Photo of Baldwin Parking Lot in downtown Westport

No More Free Juice

It shouldn’t come as a surprise. It was not expected that taxpayers would fund free charging forever.

Baldwin was the catalyst, but the policies described below are intended to apply to all town-owned parking areas, and going forward planning for parking includes consideration for EV charging.

The Board of Selectwomen today approved a charge of $.35 per kWh.

Baldwin is a timed lot, and the 3-hour limit applies to the EV spaces as well. There will be a 15 minute grace period before the vehicle is assessed an idling charge of $10/hour, billed in 15 minute increments.

If a vehicle pulls into one of these spaces with a near-depleted battery, 3 hours will not be enough to fully charge it. If the vehicle has an onboard charger of around 11 kW, some back of the envelope calculations indicate that it will be able to get about 30 kWh of charge, equating to roughly 130 miles of range, for a cost of $10.50.

Chargers at the town’s two train stations are exempted from any idling charges.

The charging spaces are for EVs that are charging only. Aside from combustion (ICE) vehicles, it is not permitted for an EV that isn’t charging to use one of these spaces. Citations will be given. We don’t know what the penalty will be, but currently if an ICE vehicle parks in an EV space at the train depot, a $25 fine is assessed.

The new policies will go into effect in January. Free juice reigns for the holiday.

12 chargers, 80-amp units (powerful for AC), have been installed at Baldwin with infrastructure for 12 more for when the time comes. The incentives available through Eversource provide for this kind of future-proofing. The chargers have J-1772 connectors.

Contretemps

Whenever public chargers are installed, it seems to generate some level of controversy.

We hope that nobody thinks installing public chargers is a bad thing. Given the importance of EV adoption in reducing greenhouse gases and other pollutants, and ongoing consumer concerns about range anxiety, public chargers are needed. These can be the powerful DC fast chargers, usually located along highway corridors, but also the less expensive level 2 AC chargers, such as those in Baldwin, in locations where there is more dwell time.

EVs currently account for about 7% of all vehicles registered in Westport. While Westport residents will no doubt use the chargers, it would be a mistake to think that all shoppers/diners are from Westport and that everyone in Westport has access to home charging.

Prime Access

These chargers are located near the front of the lot. It is common to see EV chargers located in what might be considered the prime spots for a parking lot or a building. We have heard the term “elitist” used to characterize this practice. The much more pedestrian explanation is proximity to the power source. Installing the chargers at the back of the lot would require more trenching and would be more expensive. (In a new-build situation, it is much easier to do this.)

In the EV community, most would prefer if the chargers could be located toward the “back of the lot.” Less tsuris.

Ongoing Evaluation

Since being energized, the chargers have been busy. Who doesn’t like free? Topping off may become a less frequent behavior when there is a fee that is higher than charging at home, plus an idling fee. These chargers are connected via the EVConnect service, as all town chargers either are or will be, and charging data, along with consumer feedback, will be used to inform future charger-related decisions.

Charging per kWh

As noted above, the fee is based on the kWh consumed in a given charge. Public EV chargers typically charge either using this method or by the minute. We think a per kWh fee is inherently fairer. You pay for what you use and slower charging vehicles are not penalized.

2023 was a notable year for the club as it produced a fully subscribed symposium and began a partnership with People’s Action for Clean Energy (PACE).

Northeast Electrical Vehicle Symposium

The EV Club produced its first conference, along with an EV showcase, in conjunction with the CT Tesla Owners Club. It was fully subscribed and is planned to be an annual event. It was hosted at the zero-emissions, LEED Platinum Hotel Marcel in New Haven, and covered topics ranging from the Advanced Clean Cars regulations to electrifying one’s home, EV incentives, utility programs, local EV-friendly zoning and a keynote from You-Tuber Out of Spec Dave. Recap here.

PACE

We have been working increasingly closely with the PACE (People’s Action for Clean Energy) organization. Our collaboration began with data, as we contributed the vehicle data we obtain to the data they use to analyze municipal energy use. This is a service that PACE offers free to any municipality – they’ll quantify energy use and show where there are opportunities to decarbonize.

We are aligned on policy as both organizations support direct sales, regulations for clean vehicles, the Energy Data Bill of Rights, and expanded distributed and shared solar.

We support each other’s events. This allows each of us to improve coverage throughout the state.

PACE offers a number of services for communities, including supporting HeatSmart campaigns for heat pump adoption, help with solar canopy siting, and data on building efficiency.

Finally, PACE has also been giving the club some financial support. We may be a volunteer organization, but we do have expenses! They also accept donations on our behalf. Go here. After clicking on an amount, you will go to a page that allows you to designate how you would like the donation to be used. Choose “create your own,” and type in “EV Club.”

First Responders

The EV Club continues to support our first responders when they hold EV training events. This year we worked with Fairfield, Windsor Locks, Northville, and Middlebury.

Incentives

Incentives are now more numerous, more complex, and a moving target. We decode them and keep up to date with changes for the federal and state EV purchase incentives, as well as the charging incentives offered by the utilities. This is our incentives page. We have worked with a number of individual members to sort through these and help with questions. We also had the opportunity to speak at length with Eversource regarding how to operationally improve the consumer experience with respect to incentives and dealing with voltage sags and transformer sizes that could limit solar production.

Our near term outlook is that the Foreign Entity of Concern rules, the first half of which take effect in January 2024, will cause a reduction in the number of incentive-eligible EVs.

The other important near term item is the transfer option. This enables the consumer to obtain the incentive as a point of purchase rebate rather than a tax credit. The consumer has an option to do one or the other. Aside from getting the incentive sooner, it also enables people who do not have the tax liability to burn off a tax credit to be able to utilize the incentive.

EV Showcases

We continue to support as many EV showcases as we can by helping to publicize the events, and recruiting owners to exhibit their vehicles. We encourage all EV owners to participate in these as it is a great way to discuss the virtues of driving electric and leave out the politics. We also supported and participated in events by Electric Car Guest Drive in New York.

The Club itself staged 2 showcases, one in May and a second in September as part of the Symposium. We were happy to include a Tesla Model Y patrol car owned by the Westport Police. We thank the CT Tesla Owners Club for working with us on these and for arranging for Tesla to give test drives.

If you would like us to post your showcase event, please see this post about the information we need.

Speaking Engagements and Tabling

• Stonington Energy Fair
• Fairfield Warde High School
• Interreligious Eco-Justice Network Forum on Advanced Clean Cars II, Greenwich
• Central Connecticut State University

Zoom Meeting Presentations

• SPAN – smart panels – what they’re about and what is involved in installing one in your home
• Renowned teardown artist and automotive engineer, Sandy Munro, tells it like it is
• IRA deep-dive into the EV incentives

Policy/News

• Rivian, after fending off a dealership lawsuit, has broken ground on a service center in Shelton.
• First Tesla Magic Dock in CT.
• Participation continues with the national Electric Vehicle Association Policy Committee.
• The last couple of years have been difficult regarding state level environmental legislation. Advanced Clean Cars II is stalled. It is possible it may come back but not certain. We continue to support a direct sales bill and the Energy Data Bill of Rights.
• EV Club CT had a presence at the Cybertruck Reveal Event.
• EV Club is happy to work with municipalities on EV charging, such as the new installation of 12 level 2 chargers (80 amp) in Westport.

EV Club Invited to Grand Opening of Tesla Sales and Delivery Center

This is the facility that is being built on tribal land at the Mohegan Sun Casino complex. The event is 12/20 and registration is here.

Much of the reporting in the mainstream press about this facility labels it as a loophole or a way to skirt the law. We believe this to be a mischaracterization. Tesla is following the law. Federally recognized tribes hold sovereign power on tribal land. It is up to the Tribal Council to approve such a facility and they don’t run scared from dealerships.

Data

We were able to bring the EV Dashboard back, tracking the level and characteristics of EV adoption in Connecticut. Access to data was granted courtesy of Atlas Public Policy, but sourced from the Department of Motor Vehicles.

Continued tracking of EV rebates by dealership, which is our proxy for which dealers are EV-friendly (applicable, obviously, only to those that sell CHEAPR-eligible vehicles). This typically gets updated around March of each year – it depends on when the data get published by DEEP.

Videos!

Find them on our YouTube channel

• New electric police patrol cars in Westport and Wethersfield (Tesla Model Y and Ford Mustang Mach-E, respectively)
• Owner video – Andre and his Polestar 2
• Fairfield First Responder EV training
• Sandy Munro and Corey Steuben riffing about all things EV and batteries (Meeting recording)
• Inflation Reduction Act Deep Dive (Meeting recording)
• Tesla Magic Dock Closeup
• Smart Panel discussion with SPAN (Meeting recording)
• Hotel Marcel Tech Deep Dive – Bruce Becker, Paul Braren, Will Cross

Global Temperature Rise is Already 1.2 degrees Celsius above baseline

The reporting coming out of COP 28 is that the mean temperature is already 1.2 degrees Celsius above the pre-industrial baseline and headed to exceed the critical 1.5 degree threshold by the end of this decade. With 10 months of data in hand, 2023 has already been declared the hottest year on record by a margin comfortable enough to be “safe” regardless of what happens in November and December. There is urgency here. It is not just about whether change will happen but how fast.

Transportation Is Low Hanging Fruit

We have to decarbonize everything, but some sectors of the economy are a heavier lift than others.

• Extracting CO2 from the atmosphere and sequestering it in concrete: hard
• Producing enough green hydrogen to power heavy industry: hard
• Aviation: hard
• Ground transportation: relatively easy.

In Connecticut, the transportation sector is the responsible for a larger amount of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions than any other at about 38% of the total, as reported by the Department of Energy and Environmental Protection (DEEP). EV models are becoming more plentiful all the time and generous incentives are available for purchase and charging.

Advanced Clean Car Regulations II

Connecticut, which has been following California vehicle emission rules for ~20 years and is a signer of the Zero Emissions Vehicle Memorandum of Understanding, has been going through the process of adopting the second phase of the California standards. The first phase expires in 2025.

These regulations, which apply to all classes of vehicles (the earlier regulations only applied to light-duty vehicles) would dramatically lower GHG, as well as particulate matter and nitrogen oxides. Aside from climate benefits, there are significant public health and economic benefits. CT suffers from terrible air quality, and we have the asthma rates to prove it.

A more detailed description of ACC II benefits with data are in this earlier post.

The regulations would require the phasing out of the sale of new internal combustion (ICE) light duty vehicles (and reducing the proportion of ICE heavy duty vehicles) by 2035. A portion of the EVs are permitted to be of the plug-in hybrid variety. ICE vehicles already in the fleet are not banned, nor are sales on the secondary market. It does, however, provide opponents a convenient line of attack as a “ban on gas cars.”

Phase 2 of Advanced Clean Car Regulations Blocked by Legislative Regulation Review Committee

Against this background, the legislature has blocked ACC II. The final step of the approval process, the step that follows legislative authorization, DEEP rule making, public comment, DEEP response, and a determination of legal sufficiency by the Attorney General’s office, is for a bipartisan legislative committee to make a determination regarding whether the regulations comport with legislative intent. The remit of the committee is narrow, but a GOP-led effort took it upon themselves to decide to overrule what had been authorized.

The bipartisan committee is made up of 8 members of each party, unlike the legislature as a whole where the Democrats hold a 2:1 edge. The regulations needed at least a tie vote to pass but all of the Republicans were against it and two Democrats, reportedly Senators Osten and Hartley, were wavering with at least one being a likely negative vote. With prospects cloudy, the governor pulled the regs before the vote.

It’s Not Over

The legislature could still authorize it. Democratic leadership will take the temperature of the caucus early in the coming week and then decide whether to raise it before the full body. The outlook isn’t particularly encouraging at this point.

Freedom!

House Minority Leader Vincent J. Candelora, R-North Branford, an opponent of the regulations, as reported in the CT Mirror, said,  “This is about protecting the residents of Connecticut and providing them choice.”

It feels good to know we are now protected, that we have the freedom to breathe dirty air, the freedom to do nothing to mitigate climate change, and the freedom to signal that new green economy jobs should go to other states.

In effect, Mr. Candelora and his colleagues are saying, “Let the market drive EV adoption,” a.k.a. the “business as usual case.” The point of policy is to accelerate the curve faster than BAU. A GOP flyer labels this the “ban without a plan.” This removes the context because, in fact, there is a plan. These are a few points regarding objections raised about the grid, charging infrastructure, and EV costs.

Grid

• As we move to a carbon-free society where everything is electric, it will be necessary to upgrade the grid. That is why DEEP and the Public Utilities Regulatory Authority (PURA) have a grid modernization docket.
• EVs are relatively grid-friendly since so much of the charging is done at night, during off peak times. This is a slide from the presentation that United Illuminating gave at the Club’s Northeast Electric Vehicle Symposium in September illustrating the benefits of off-peak EV charging:
• There is already a program in place that incentivizes Eversource and UI customers with home charging to charge during off-peak periods.

Charging Infrastructure

• There are over 700 public charging stations with over 2000 ports in CT, per the Department of Energy for the roughly 35,000 EVs, of which about 23,000 are fully electric. (And, yes, we know that vehicles transiting the state need to charge as well.) But, we’re not starting from a bad place. The number of chargers needs to grow along with the increase in EV adoption, and the chargers have to be available throughout the state.
• The federal Infrastructure and Jobs Act was passed about 2 years ago. Between the federal funds and state matching funds, there will be over $60 million invested in public EV charging stations. There have been no shovels in the dirt as yet, as the process took a while to get finalized. DOT expects installations to begin in 2024.
• There are incentives for the purchase and installation of EV chargers for both residential and commercial customers, developed by PURA and available through Eversource and United Illuminating. Some of the municipal utilities are offering incentives, as well.
• EV chargers are eligible for grants from the pool of Volkswagen “dieselgate” settlement funds.

EV Costs

• It is true that the purchase price of an EV is higher than a comparable internal combustion (ICE) vehicle. But it’s not that much higher, at least according to recent data published by the Kelly Blue Book:

These prices do not take into account incentives. At the present moment, assuming all qualifications are met, a buyer of a new electric vehicle can get a $7500 federal incentive and a $2250 CT incentive. CT also offers a higher incentive for lower income buyers. See our incentives page for more detail.

• Including operating and maintenance costs, in other words, the total cost of ownership, EVs are more economical relative to ICE. According to the Natural Resources Defense Council: “Bottom line: You can bank on saving across the life of your electric vehicle.” According to Money Magazine: “Upfront costs may be higher for EVs, but these cars are also much cheaper to operate and maintain — and the savings can add up. Over the life of your car, you will often spend less by buying electric.”
• EV prices will definitely come down going forward. The technology continues to advance across the board, but two reasons in particular are battery costs and scale.
  • Bloomberg New Energy Finance states, “BNEF expects average battery pack prices to drop again next year, reaching $133/kWh (in real 2023 dollars). Technological innovation and manufacturing improvement should drive further declines in battery pack prices in the coming years, to $113/kWh in 2025 and $80/kWh in 2030.” $100 per kWh is considered cost-parity with ICE.
  • Outside of Tesla, none of the manufacturers have thus far fully benefited from scale economics. That will change. These proposed regulations will accelerate that change.

Flexibility

Moving to EVs, let alone decarbonizing the economy overall, involves a complicated policy landscape at the federal, state, and even municipal level. Everyone recognizes this. In fact, in the FAQ document prepared by DEEP, it is stated,  “If we get to a point where it appears that the technology or the infrastructure deployment is such that we would not be able to meet the standards, the standards will change to help suit our needs. This has happened on several occasions in the past with the California standards.”

The vision of a hellscape where many cannot afford a car, and those that can will get stuck is simply not going to happen.

We would like to call out a very good myth vs reality opinion piece published in CT News Junkie, written by Rep. Christine Palm.

You Can Help

Without these regulations, we are back to a world where we really do have no plan, where we are back to passing non-binding resolutions that don’t deliver results.

You can help. Reach out to your legislator and tell them you support adoption of ACC II.

The big environmental advocacy groups, such as Save the Sound, CT League of Conservation Voters, and the Sierra Club are telling folks to reach out to Democrats since it is assumed there will be no Republican support and the Dems control the legislative agenda. We would encourage contacting your legislator regardless of party. CT participation in the original California standards had near-unanimous bipartisan support. There was some Republican support for these latest regs. It is unfortunate that clean vehicles and the environment have become part of the culture war.

Policy Matters

As a closing note, Bloomberg New Energy Finance reported this week that the Inflation Reduction Act is responsible for about $100 billion of newly announced investments in EV and battery plants. ACC II is complementary policy that will enable manufacturers to scale more quickly and for consumers to make use of the output of these new manufacturing facilities.

CT air quality is not in compliance with federal standards. Electrifying transportation is the easiest way for us to get there. If these regulations ultimately do not get enacted, the way forward will be harder, and in all likelihood, we will face a future remain out of compliance indefinitely.

Tesla Delivers First Cybertrucks

Bruce Becker, sustainable architect and senior correspondent of the EV Club of CT was an invitee to the Cybertruck reveal event in Austin, Texas and has sent some photos our way.

Tesla made a small number of deliveries today. We don’t know if any of the CTs are destined for CT. The Cybertruck and its distinctive, angular, polarizing design were originally teased in 2019. Production is now beginning in small quantities. Elon Musk stated in the most recent earnings call in October that the vehicle presents a manufacturing challenge with its flat, stainless steel panels and unique platform. Tesla reports plans to scale to 250,000 by 2025.

Orders are now being taken with a $250 refundable deposit. Pricing was posted today in the Tesla configurator. The vehicle comes in 3 trim levels, starting at $60,990 (RWD, 250 miles), $79,990 (AWD, 340 miles), and the “Cyberbeast”$99,990 (AWD, 320 miles, 0-60 in 2.6 seconds).

The Cybertruck is Tesla’s first high voltage vehicle (800-volt architecture), so charging should be extremely fast. It also has a plugout feature to power a home or another vehicle. We will keep a lookout for an appearance at the Tesla facilities in Milford or Uncasville.

At this time, the Cybertruck is not listed as being eligible for the federal incentive. Mostly, this is irrelevant at present since few will be placed in service this year. However, the vehicle is manufactured in Austin, Texas and it uses the 4680 battery cells made at the same plant, so it is likely to qualify. Also, you will notice that the price of the middle trim level is conveniently set at $79,990, or $10 below the cap in the Inflation Reduction Act for light trucks. Taking this into account, it may be just a matter of time until the vehicle is officially declared eligible. (The lowest-priced trim level will not be delivered until 2025 at the earliest.)