Photo at top taken under one of the solar canopies at the Hotel Marcel with the building in the background, from left to right: Daphne Dixon – Live Green CT, Paul Wessel – Greater New Haven Clean Cities, and Analiese Mione, Barry Kresch, Bruce Becker, and Paul Braren from the EV Club who organized the symposium.

“Sold-out” Conference

Well, it was free, but there was more interest than we were able to accommodate and we had to close registration. Early feedback has been extremely positive. such as this message:

“I attended the NEEVS yesterday and had a fantastic time. What a great lineup of speakers/presentations and lots of fun at the car show as well! I’m looking forward to future symposiums in the coming years. …. Again, I had a great time at the symposium (and the lunch was incredible).”

We would like to thank our sponsors: Live Green CT, Greater New Haven Clean Cities Coalition, EVConnect, Maxwell Vehicles, and ChargePoint, without whom we would have been munching on stale pretzels.

Of course, we also thank our attendees for joining us and being an engaged and interactive audience.

The Hotel Marcel provided excellent, eco-friendly hospitality. For anyone who may be nervous about switching from a gas to an induction cooktop, the quality of the food attested to how good induction cooking can be. Even the chafing dishes were induction.

We’ve had some comments about how a small committee was able to put together a jam-packed agenda in a short period of time. If anything, the challenge is less about finding content than winnowing it down to fit within our time parameters. As it was, our 3-hour speaker agenda took 4 hours with too little time for Q&A.

We want to give a shout-out to Rich Jordan, president of the CT Tesla Owners Club, for his help with the car show, to the Westport Police Department and their Model Y patrol car, and to Tesla for bringing vehicles for test drives.

Converted EV Van

Hotel Marcel architect and developer, Bruce Becker, talked about how Maxwell Vehicles converted an ICE van to electric, using a salvaged Model 3 battery and drive train. This van gets a lot of use shuttling guests to downtown New Haven, Yale, Union Station, Tweed Airport, and other destinations.

Out of Spec Dave

YouTube and X (Twitter) personality, Out of Spec Dave from Greenwich, CT, talked about his adventures as a road warrior, having driven lots of different EVs and experienced the many faces of public charging. Not all of them are happy faces. Part of the charging experience is knowing before you get to a charger whether the charger is in service and how fast it is charging. There is a gap in the eco-system here. He has launched the “Rate Your Charge” newsletter. Take a video or photo of your charge, describe your experience, and tag @outofspecdave on Twitter. These are being compiled in a weekly report posted to Twitter. For those not on Twitter, use this Google Doc: https://docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1FAIpQLSd9nE1JOulqidJNacpL230TdswfnnaWBTjdGIaky3ffkHF6EA/viewform?pli=1

PACE

Mark Scully from People’s Action for Clean Energy (PACE) spoke about their program to help municipalities decarbonize and save money in the process. This slide illustrates the cost savings projected in a transition to renewables.

United Illuminating

We get many questions regarding whether widespread EV adoption will crash the grid. While the grid does need to be modernized (and the Public Utilities Regulatory Authority has a grid modernization docket), Rick Rosa from Avangrid/UI discussed using EVs to optimize the grid. This slide is an example of optimization vs curtailment. EVs will be beneficial to the grid for the foreseeable future and, as such, there are incentives for EV owners to participate. See our incentives page for a more detailed description of the program with links to sign up for the residential or commercial incentives. This program is also offered by Eversource and it can offset the costs of buying and installing a 240 volt charger, as well as pay an ongoing incentive to participate in their managed charging programs.

Zoning for EV Readiness

Daphne Dixon of Live Green CT, who has done a lot of work with municipalities, gave a presentation that illustrated the complexity of zoning for EVs but also highlighted the significant benefits as noted in the example below.

All Electric, Zero Emission Home

Paul Braren provided a detailed description of his journey to create an all-electric home (solar roof seen in the photo, powerwall/VPP, 2 EVs, insulation for home and windows, heat pumps, smart panel, electric garden tools) and capture the available incentives. It has been a complicated road. This links to his full presentation.

IRA Transfer Provision

In his update on incentives, EV Club President, Barry Kresch, discussed the implementation of the transfer provision in 2024, and how it changes a tax credit into a point of sale rebate.

Advanced Clean Cars II

CT is a participant in the California Air Resources Board emissions requirements. It is now in the process of implementing the second phase of these regulations, commencing in 2027 through 2035. The rules require manufacturers to sell increasing amounts of zero emission light-duty vehicles, reaching 100% in 2035.  There is a separate set of regulations that would significantly lower emissions for medium and heavy-duty vehicles during this same period. Charles Rothenberger, Climate Attorney for Save the Sound, explained these regulations. The legislature has authorized CT DEEP to proceed with the required multi-step process. The slide below shows where we are and the remaining steps.

There is some concern that when the rules go back to the legislature, in which a bi-partisan review committee is supposed to examine them for legal sufficiency, that there may be an effort by opponents to short-circuit the approvals process. More on that to come.

We hope you see you next time!!!

Tesla Model Y Leads Rebated Vehicles

CHEAPR set another record in June in terms of rebates awarded with 421 rebates, way exceeding the previous high water mark that occurred just one month prior of 286.

The best-selling EV in the country, the Tesla Model Y, leads the field by far with 228, or 54% of all rebates. Other models with double digit rebates

• Tesla Model 3 – 51
• Chevy Bolt – 40
• Toyota RAV4 Prime – 33
• Volkswagen ID.4 – 15

E-Bike Rebates Sizzle

Things you can do in 13 minutes –

• Walk a mile
• Complete a simple crossword
• Reheat last night’s leftovers

Or

• Blow through the entire e-bike voucher budget!

One of the new components of CHEAPR authorized last year in Public Act 22-25, e-bike rebate vouchers, went live in July. It was available for all of 13 minutes before the entire budget was depleted with 6300+ applications received like a bolt of lightning. DEEP had originally budgeted $500,000 for this first year, but increased it to $750,000 when the strong demand became immediately clear. Still, that only extended the shelf-life by a scant few minutes.

Still Awaiting Traction for LMI rebates

There were only 4 of the supplemental Rebate+ incentives awarded to individuals who are income-qualified or live in distressed communities. There is hope for much higher numbers. We still counsel patience. DEEP has reported a good response with respect to the pre-qualification vouchers and the vouchers are good for a year. The public dataset does not contain information on the number of approved vouchers. The 4 incentives were all for new vehicles.

Fleet Rebate Postponement

The one new program component that still awaits launch is the fleet incentives. The eligibility is wide – commercial, non-profit, municipal, tribal entities. The limit is 10 incentives in a single year and 20 total. The standard CHEAPR incentive applies (i.e. not the supplemental), as does the $50K MSRP cap. Reminder, MSRP is defined as the base price of the trim level ordered without accessories. The light-duty program launch had been expected imminently, but DEEP is taking a step back. In the wake of the overwhelming e-bike response, they are looking to be prepared in the event of robust demand.

There is also a medium and heavy-duty vehicle component to this program. This will launch sometime next year.

Burn Rate Running Hot

At the September Board Meeting, DEEP expressed some concern about funds depletion as the program gave out $874,250 (not including e-bikes) in the month of June. They probably don’t need to worry, at least for a while, as Tesla has withdrawn the Model Y standard range. The Tesla website now only lists the long range and performance trim levels, neither of which qualify for a CHEAPR incentive.

EVs by City and County

Notes – There are differences every time we receive a file. In this case, the data do not include electric motorcycles and the handful of fuel-cell vehicles, which is different than in the past. Also, importantly for this post, there are 518 vehicles for which there is no geo record. That is why one of the columns in the bar charts is labeled “(Blank).”

Map

In the map at the top of the post, each bubble is a city, the size of the bubble reflects the number of registered EVs in that city, and the shades of color within the bubble depict the proportion of battery electric vehicles (light blue) and plug-in hybrid vehicles (dark blue).

County

Fairfield County remains the EV epicenter with 40% of registered EVs. Hartford and New Haven County follow with Hartford slightly higher.

City

The top cities remain the same, except that Windsor Locks increased a lot to rank number 8. There is not enough room to display all of the cities or all of the data labels. If anyone would like to know the number for a particular city, please reach out to the EV Club.

EV Count Trend by City

This is the trend for each city in 6-month intervals from January 2022 through July 2023.

Per Capita

There is a change in the per capita rankings with Westport slipping to second, behind the smaller city of Windsor Locks, after being the leader since we started tracking these stats 7 years ago. Smaller cities dominate this ranking.

These are the per capita chart filtered for BEVs and PHEVs:

EV Count by Make within City

We are again able to track this. It is a dense chart that is complicated to see in a screen shot. At least it is colorful! Again, space is a limitation, both in the number of cities that can be displayed as well as the number of makes in the legend. The large red part of the bar is obviously Tesla. If anyone is looking for specific information, let us know. The chart itself displays some of the makes, but above the chart is all of the makes/colors.

Below are two variations on the above chart – BEV by make within city and PHEV by make within city. It tracks more or less socio-economically with the BEV-heavy cities being the more affluent towns.

CT Hits 36K Registered EVs As Of July 1

We have not yet received a file from the DMV in response to our Freedom of Information Act Request. This information is pulled off the public web.

There are 2 numbers out there. One is from DEEP and it is 36,269 registered EVs. Atlas Public Policy has updated its dashboard and cite the number of registered EVs as 35,884. Both DEEP and Atlas source the information from DMV. It looks to me like DEEP is including electric motorcycles and the handful of fuel-cell vehicles that are registered here. Atlas clearly is not.

Please keep in mind that the data are net registrations, not sales. Net registrations include new registrations over the past 6 months (including people moving into the state who already own an EV), plus previously registered vehicles, less vehicles that have turned over (sold, donated, junked, or owners left the state). Consequently, you will see examples of discontinued vehicles in these charts, a few of which have a fair number of lingering registrations.

Fuel Type

The market continues trending toward fully electric Battery Electric Vehicles (BEV). The shift appears gradual in a trend line, which is because each new number is on top of an existing base. BEVs now account for 63% of EV registrations, up from 60% one year ago.

EVs by Make

The number of registered EVs by make are in the photo at the top of the post. Make is not the same as parent company (e.g. Chevrolet vs GM, Jeep vs Stellantis).

Tesla still retains a commanding lead with 14,408 or 40% of all EVs and 64% of BEVs. Tesla share of overall EVs is right at where it has been for years, while its share of BEVs is a little lower reflecting increased competition.

The second most widely registered moniker is Toyota with 4301, followed by Chevrolet (2204), Jeep (2078), Ford (1822), Hyundai (1817), BMW (1664), and Volvo (1393). All other makes are under 1000 and there is quite a long tail.

Model

There are a total of 111 different models in the dataset. This is summarized to the model level and does not separately break out different trim levels within model. Due to this large number, the graphic below is just an excerpt. Below are some of the manufacturers displayed separately.

Tesla

The Model Y is the fastest-selling EV out there by a mile and it has almost caught up to the Model 3 in terms of net registrations. The Y and the 3 have clearly taken share from S and X sales. There are still a few Roadsters hanging on.

Toyota

Toyota surpassed Chevrolet, following the cancellation of the Volt and the introduction of the RAV4 Prime, to be the second most widely registered marque. Toyota’s new BZ4X has yet to make much of an impact. The chart separately shows the Prius Prime and its progenitor, the Plug-in Prius, which was Toyota’s first plug-in vehicle. It looked like the original Prius and was a very low-range PHEV. The 2 units labeled RAV4 are the all-electric RAV4 that was built about 10 years ago as a compliance car (using a Tesla powertrain). There weren’t that many built and very few of them made it out of California. There are also 21 Prius vehicles in the file where the model isn’t noted. That is just life with these files.

Chevrolet

Chevy, at one time the most widely registered make, has slipped to number 3 with 2240 registered EVs, barely above Jeep. The Bolt finally overtook the Volt which was canceled in 2019. GM had a hit with the recently introduced EUV version of the Bolt. The Bolt was recently canceled by GM, but in the face of consumer outcry, it was announced that the model will be coming back using the new Ultium platform. No date is yet announced. Chevy has upcoming BEV versions of the Silverado pickup (fall 2023), Equinox SUV (spring 2024), and Blazer SUV (spring 2024).

Jeep

Jeep places fourth with 2078 registrations. Most of these are the Wrangler PHEV. The Grand Cherokee is also a PHEV. Stellantis has developed a new EV platform for future vehicles.

Ford

Ford, and its highly visible CEO Jim Farley, has been aggressive in pivoting toward EVs, as well as open about the challenges it presents for a legacy automobile manufacturer. He has made some big moves, such as the controversial Ford-e program to push dealerships to focus on EV sales and inking a deal with Tesla to access its Supercharger network as well as moving toward NACS connectors for Ford vehicles beginning in 2025. Ford’s recent vehicle efforts have been the launches of the high profile Mustang Mach-E and F-150 Lightning BEVs, extending 2 of the company’s iconic brands into electric propulsion. Ford has also recently refreshed its Escape PHEV, though the vehicle has not caught on and only registers 131 registrations after 4 years.

Hyundai

The Ioniq 5, a well-received recent entry, has quickly climbed to the top of the Hyundai registrations. Its newest entry, the Ioniq 6, has only recently begun shipping.

BMW

BMW was one of he earliest of the legacy manufacturers to build EVs, starting with the somewhat stubby i3 and its REx range extender variant with a small gasoline engine. The REx is not a true PHEV. The feature is intended to enable you to get to a plug. Since then, BMW introduced PHEV versions of some of its popular models, with the X5 having gotten the most positive reception. More recently, the company has debuted BEVs with ~300 miles of range, the i4, i5, i7, and iX.

Volvo

Volvo entered the EV space by making PHEV versions of some its popular ICE vehicles but has since begun manufacturing BEVs. The XC40 and C40 are the first of the BEVs. Since then, it has announced the EX30 compact SUV and EX90 SUV. The other models below are PHEVs.

Polestar

Polestar is Volvo’s corporate sibling, both owned by the Chinese company Geely, dedicated to manufacturing only electric vehicles. The company’s main entrant to date is the Polestar 2, an upscale sedan. The Polestar 1 is a high-performance PHEV sportscar that was discontinued in 2022. It was very expensive and never intended as a mass market entry. To the best of our knowledge, it had the longest electric range of any PHEV ever manufactured at 58 miles. The company has now introduced the Polestar 3, an SUV that will begin deliveries in the second quarter of 2024.

Nissan

Nissan was an early EV-mover with its Leaf. The numbers for that vehicle haven’t moved much in years. Now the company has introduced only its second EV, the SUV Ariya.

Rivian and Lucid

These 2 companies are the first of a new wave of EV-exclusive manufacturers that are using a direct sales model like Tesla. Deliveries began last year. The R1T is a pickup. The R1S is an SUV that uses the same frame as the R1T. The EDV with only 2 vehicles is the Electric Delivery Van the company is producing for Amazon, which is a part owner of Rivian. Lucid makes a very expensive sedan that in its longest-range trim level exceeds 500 miles.

Volkswagen

This is the final manufacturer that I am breaking out. The E-Golf is a discontinued model. The ID.4 was VW’s pivot to its new platform. The ID.3 was a success in Europe. This small vehicle was not offered in the USA. VW has had struggles with software and CEO turnover. The ID.4 hasn’t generated a lot of momentum since deliveries began at the end of 2020.

Rebates Way Up, Mostly Due to Tesla

DEEP has published stats through June 14th, but for the purposes of this post, we are looking at complete months, thus through May 31st.

As can be seen in the chart at the top of the post, rebates have really spiked. In fact, the 286 rebates in May is the most the program has ever had in a calendar month. This is mostly driven by Tesla.

Below is the trend of rebates by model. That green hockey stick is the Model Y. Price cutting by manufacturers has brought some popular models below the $50K CHEAPR MSRP cap. The Model Y is the best-selling electric vehicle and the best-selling non-pickup vehicle in the USA, and as soon as the base trim level became eligible, it zoomed right to the top in terms of rebate count. The brown line that is currently second is the Model 3. The base trim level Model 3, as well as the reintroduced long-range non-performance version are CHEAPR eligible.

Aside from the Tesla vehicles being the most popular EVs, Tesla has been the best organized in terms of helping eligible consumers claim the rebate. With dealerships, it is bit of roulette as not all of them are up to date on the program or have knowledgeable salespeople. We have also heard that some of the finance companies that dealerships use for leased vehicles don’t accommodate the incentive.

Ford recently announced a price cut for the F-150 Lightning and the base trim level will now qualify for CHEAPR.

Outside of the Tesla models, only the Toyota RAV4 Prime PHEV was rebated in double digits. The RAV4 had been a leader in the number of rebates but has been tracking at a lower level more recently. The Chevy Bolt, particularly the newer EUV variant, had been building as the company began to see daylight in its recall efforts, but that momentum is stalling with the cancellation announcement. The Bolt had come to dominate the value segment. It was small but not that small, with a roughly 238 mile range for about $30K. GM doesn’t comment on future plans before they become firm, but they have dropped hints that they value the Bolt nameplate and, who knows, we may see a variant of it on the new Ultium platform.

This is what May looks like.

New Rebate Plus – Rebates for Income-Limited Individuals

The latest piece of the CHEAPR program to go live was the loosened income standard and pre-qualification voucher for the supplemental income-limited rebates. The pre-qualification voucher enables the buyer to get a “cash on the hood” incentive, rather than be forced to float the cash until a reimbursement arrives. Also, the highly restrictive previous eligibility criteria was expanded to include anyone with an income level up to 3 times the Federal Poverty Level. More detail on this program can be found on this blog post here.

DEEP reported an encouraging early response in terms of voucher requests. To this point, very few rebates are appearing in the data. This shows rebates by month for Rebate +. The program soft-launched, meaning absent a marketing push, on March 29. It feels to us that given the multi-step process, it is too soon to know how well this new program is working.

There are several things that have to happen before a voucher request turns into an incentive.

• How long does it take to get the voucher approved?
• How long will the consumer take to place an order?
• How long will it take for the vehicle to be delivered?
• Is there any dealer friction over the new voucher process that holds up orders?
• How many people get a voucher that they then do not use?

Hopefully, we’ll be in a position to get a better read on this by the fall.

Post by Barry Kresch

Tesla Patrol Car Purchase Price Now Lower Than Ford Explorer ICE Police Vehicle

In 2019, when the Westport Police purchased a Model 3 for use as a patrol car for $52,000 vs. $37,000 for the incumbent gasoline-powered Ford Explorer, it was a good deal. But it had to be proven, as some were skeptical that the savings would be significant enough to overcome the $15,000 purchase premium. In our analysis, we found that when factoring in savings in fuel, maintenance, customization, and expected vehicle life, the Model 3 is projected to save over $50,000 over a 4-year period. The purchase price differential was recouped in the first year. That detailed analysis is here. Fast forward a few years, however, and things have really changed.

The law-enforcement version of the Ford Explorer, which comes with a few augmentations, such as a heavy-duty alternator, to be able to support the customization needs of the police, is now $47,000. The Westport Police expect delivery next month of their third Tesla and second Model Y, purchased this year, for which they paid $53,000. This new Tesla is eligible for Inflation Reduction Act incentives of $7500, making the acquisition price lower than the Ford.

The IRS code section 45W, clean vehicles for fleet incentives, applies to this vehicle. In 2023, obtaining the credit is a little cumbersome because an entity that does not pay taxes must file for “direct pay” to get the funds from the Treasury. This will become easier in January when the transfer provision goes into effect. The buyer transfers the tax credit to the seller and the seller gives the incentive as a rebate, deducted off the invoice price. This article describes the process for non-taxable entities.

The department buys the same Tesla vehicles that consumers buy. The Model Y that the police bought is the lowest-priced trim level – dual motor (AWD), standard range (279 miles). With continuing price-cutting by Tesla, that model, if bought today, goes for $47,740. At that price, it would also be eligible for a CHEAPR rebate of $2250. (CHEAPR rebates for fleet purchases are expected to be implemented within the next couple of months of this writing on 6/27/23.) The net purchase price for a Model Y will be $37,990, or $9000 less than the Explorer.

The Model Y now seems to be the EV of choice for the Westport Police, rather than the Model 3 due to the extra space. At the time the Model 3 was purchased, the Model Y did not yet exist. (The only other police department in the state with an electric patrol car is Wethersfield, which has a Ford Mach-E. The Westport PD also has other EVs for non-patrol duty uses, including these new additions.) A video walk through of a fully customized Model Y and the Mach-E can be found on the Club’s YouTube channel.

Increased Expectations for Vehicle Service Life

When we did the financial analysis in 2021, after the Model 3 had been in service for a year, we built an amortization schedule based on a projected 6-year service life for the Tesla compared to the historical 4 years for the Explorers. (After 4 years, the maintenance costs for the Explorers make it not cost-effective to continue using them as patrol cars.) Three years into the use of the Model 3, the police feel it is quite possible that the 6-year projection may be too conservative. The vehicle is holding up well. Maintenance costs are as low as forecast. The battery is in good shape (and they are monitoring it with Tesla-Fi). They intend to run with it as long as they can. Let’s say, and this may also be conservative, that the 6 years turns into 8 years. That means the capital cost of acquiring patrol cars gets cut in half.

How Is This Not a No-Brainer?

• Lower acquisition cost
• Lower fuel costs
• Lower maintenance costs
• Double the service life
• Better performance

Increase in Rebates Driven by Tesla

Since the MSRP cap was increased in July 2022, there has been an increase in rebates as more models have become available. Somewhat predictably, it is driven mostly by Tesla.

The 158 rebates in March was up from 115 one year ago (+37%) with 55 of the rebates being for Tesla.

Tesla Drives Higher Utilization; Model Y Now Eligible

The CHEAPR program has been consistently underspent for several years, even before the budget was increased. Aside from most of the new program, as authorized in Public Act 22-25 from one year ago, not yet being yet live, there has been a low utilization rate. Rebates have only been received for roughly one third of eligible vehicles. Tesla is more efficient than any of the other companies in terms of incorporating incentives into their sales flow, and the consultant for CHEAPR, the Center for Sustainable Energy, has said that in states they administer, when Teslas are eligible, the utilization is higher. Add to that, Tesla has been cutting prices over the past year and now the Model Y, both the standard range and long range non-performance, are eligible. If Tesla were to bring back the Model 3 long range non-performance, it too, would likely be eligible.

The first of the new program components to go online will be the revised program for income-limited individuals (LMI). The current LMI program has seen very little activity, none in March.

Updates on CHEAPR Implementation

Almost one year ago, SB-4 was voted into law as Public Act 22-25, an environmental omnibus that made extensive changes to CHEAPR, the state EV purchase incentive program. The easiest change, raising the MSRP cap from $42,000 to $50,000 was implemented in July. The other changes required extensive platform revisions and we are just now getting to the point where these other items will go live. Below is the slide from the deck that DEEP presented that outlines the timetable.

Revised income-limited (LMI) program

The program remains on track to launch the revised income-limited program, including a pre-qualification voucher in second quarter. Our guess is that it will likely be toward the end of the quarter, especially since they have yet to make a final selection of a marketing vendor. These LMI rebates are known as Rebate+ New and Rebate+ Used.

To recap, the new LMI program expands eligibility to individuals or households earning up to 3 times the federal poverty rate. The current program requires enrollment in designated governmental assistance programs, which is more limiting. The other important addition is the ability to become qualified before the purchase and get a voucher. This way the incentive will be cash on the hood like the standard CHEAPR rebate. The current post-purchase process will be retained, as well, for the sake of continuity. We suspect it will fall away in time but that will be based on utilization data.

The LMI rebate for new vehicles is $2000 that gets added on to the standard $2250 rebate. There is also a $3000 rebate for used EVs. Used rebates can only be obtained if the vehicle is purchased through a dealer (either a new car dealer that sells used vehicles or a used car dealer), in other words, not through a private sale.

The LMI incentives have really struggled for traction since they were introduced, with only 8 being given out during calendar 2022 (5 new, 3 used). This change is sorely needed, along with effective marketing.

Expanded Options for Used EVs?

The eligible used vehicles for the Rebate+ Used have been restricted to vehicles that were eligible for the standard rebate when new. We never saw the point of that since these are income-limited rebates. We feel any used EV should be eligible. We have spoken to DEEP about this and we expect there will be a revision here, which would be effective when the new Rebate+ program goes online in a couple of months. Stay tuned.

Expansion to Non-Residential

At present, the incentive is available only to individuals. In the third quarter, referenced in the slide as “CHEAPR Fleets launch,” eligibility will be expanded to businesses, fleets, non-profits, municipalities, and tribal entities. This could potentially be a huge pool of purchasers. These entities are capped at 10 incentives in one year and 20 total.

E-Bikes

The state will incentivize e-bike purchases, something that was left out of the federal IRA legislation. This will be a gradual rollout over the remainder of the year, with possible tweaks continuing even after that. It is possible for an LMI individual to get as much as $1500 towards the purchase of an e-bike with an MSRP of no more than $3000.

Program Performance

CHEAPR has been underperforming for years, defined as spending below its budget. It started to happen in a serious way in 2019 when the MSRP cap was lowered from $50K to $42K. The reversal of that as of July 2022 is helping, though we are in a more difficult environment at this time with higher prices and constrained supply chains.

The program rebated $1,894,000 for 1174 rebate instances in 2022. This remains less than the program’s old budget of $3MM annually, and way less than its new budget which is between 2-3 times that, depending on how much is collected in greenhouse gas fees. Not to mention that unused funds rollover. There is a substantial available war chest to fund the expanded program.

The 1174 rebate number is less than the 1408 in 2021. However, the pace picked up in the second half of 2022 after the MSRP cap increase, increasing 69% (737 vs 437) over the first half, and slightly higher than the 696 of the second half of 2021. The 216 rebates in Jan and Feb of 2023 are pacing well ahead of the corresponding period from 1 year ago when the number was 116.

34% Utilization Rate

The biggest area of concern is the utilization rate. which DEEP reported to be 34%. In other words, 34% of rebate-eligible vehicles actually got a rebate. This has been an ongoing pain point and has been the single biggest reason that it has been difficult to budget for this program. There could be several reasons for this: lack of promotion/consumer awareness, lack of dealership participation, and potentially important, we have heard that not all finance companies, which hold the title to leased vehicles, have set themselves up to deal with the rebate.

The changes to the program made in PA 22-25 are good ones and we will do our part to get the word out.

Post by Barry Kresch

CHEAPR as a Proxy for EV-Friendly Dealers

It is not unusual for a consumer to reach out to us, usually after a bad sales experience, and ask if we can recommend a dealership. We have some recommendations from members who have had good experiences, but nothing that covers every vehicle make and every dealership across the state. This is our attempt to at least partially address this.

We are using CHEAPR rebates sorted by dealership within vehicle make as a rough proxy for dealer EV-friendliness. There are some limitations. Not all makes have CHEAPR-eligible vehicles. They may be too expensive (e.g. Jaguar) or they’re just not in the game (e.g. Honda). EV prices have gone up in this inflationary time and the CHEAPR MSRP cap was $42,000 for the first 6 months of the year, rising to $50,000 as of July.  There have been continued difficulties with vehicle availability, but at least we are comparing like to like.

Some dealerships are charging a “market adjustment,” meaning the vehicles are being sold for above the MSRP. That does not get reflected in CHEAPR. The MSRP cap is based on the manufacturer’s base MSRP for the trim level without options. That may, however, have deterred some consumers from doing business with them.

There continues to be wide variation among dealership performance, as in past years. If you know of a dealership but do not see it in the charts, that means there were no rebates associated with it in 2022. Sometimes there seems to be a conflict in that a particular dealership name includes a different make than some of the rebates credited to it. That is because the way the dealership name is represented in the data does not indicate that it sells other makes. I cross-checked all the instances of this and the data are correct.

Mitsubishi, which had only one rebate is omitted. Subaru, also with a low count, is included. Chevy and Toyota drove the biggest numbers. Tesla is omitted for obvious reasons.

Rebates by dealership in alphabetical order by make and ranked by the number of rebates within make. All data from the Center for Sustainable Energy.

Based on new data released by the Department of Motor Vehicles, Department of Energy and Environmental Protection, and the Department of Transportation, the number of electric vehicles on the road has increased to 30,181 up from the 25,444 published in July and 21,377 one year ago. The year over year increase is 41%.

This information comes from what has been published by DEEP and is not the granular data that we request in order to produce the Interactive EV Dashboard. No ETA on that at this point.

Tesla’s Model 3 remains the most widely registered vehicle with the Model Y at number 2. Some newer EVs, such as the Wrangler and Mustang Mach-E now make the list.

Fairfield County remains the EV nexus. This is the percent distribution (not population adjusted).

The definition of EV includes both battery electric vehicles (BEV) and Plug-in Hybrid (PHEV) vehicles, as both are included in the state’s EV goals. The market continues its trend toward BEVs. As can be seen in the chart below, BEVs now have 62% share, up 3 points from one year ago. If that increase seems small, it isn’t. Given that it is based on total registrations, it takes a pretty big shift to move the needle that much. (Case in point – the Chevy Volt, a PHEV that was discontinued in March of 2019 is still the 7th most widely registered vehicle.) For whatever reason, fuel cell vehicles and battery electric motorcycles are not included in the dataset. They don’t account for many vehicles, but they have always been part of the data we have received in response to our FOIA requests.

Recent trends have improved, and no doubt, lingering supply chain issues have been a restraining factor, but we are still a long way from where the state has determined we need to be. This chart looks at the trend historically, where we are today, and then a straight line model to the 2025 and 2030 goals of 150,000 and 500,000 respectively.