The chart at the top of the post shows the number of rebates and amount of funds awarded monthly through August 2024. The reason for the dip in August is that there is only partial-month reporting available at this time.

This information is based on recent the CHEAPR board meeting.

CHEAPR Program Running Hot

As can be seen in the chart, the CT EV purchase incentive program has been running hot over the past 16 or so months. Between price cuts on the Tesla Models 3 and Y, along with new models being introduced by the legacy manufacturers, CHEAPR has dispensed $7.9 million worth of rebates this calendar year through July 30 with another $600 thousand in the processing pipeline. Last year, $8.9 million was dispensed in total and this year will clearly exceed that. Fortunately, there have been carryover funds from past under-performance, but those will be burned through by next year.

Cuts Looming

The Department of Energy and Environmental Protection has budgeted $9.2 million annually for incentive payments. Incentive payouts follow consumer demand and rebate levels, and 87% of the expenditures have been going to the Battery Electric Vehicle (BEV) standard incentive. The remainder is divided amongst PHEV rebates, along with supplemental rebates and used EV rebates for income limited individuals. A cut to the size of the standard rebate for BEVs will be used to slow the burn rate. While final action has not yet been taken, it is expected that the $2250 standard BEV rebate will be rolled back to $1500 as of January 1. Based on the first quarter run-rate, a further cut to $1000 is possible for July.

EVs are currently in over-supply and discounts are widely available. It might make sense to take advantage of the full rebate while it is still here.

Increases for Plus Rebates

If cuts are made to the standard rebate, the tentative plan is to increase the size of the plus rebates. These rebates are for people who have a household income of no more than 3 times the federal poverty rate, or are enrolled in a qualifying state or federal government assistance program, such as food stamps or free school lunches, or live in an environmental justice community or distressed municipality. (This is the page that details these criteria.) For a new BEV, the Plus incentive would increase to $3000 from $2000, for a total incentive of $4500, assuming the standard incentive is rolled back to $1500. There would be increases in the PHEV incentive, and used BEV/PHEV incentives as well.

Increasing the Plus rebates will not break the bank as there are relatively few of them.

The legislature authorized increasing the size of the Plus rebates to up to 200% of the standard rebate level, which is what this would be if the standard rebate were to be cut to $1500. It is not clear to us how the Plus incentive could be further increased without exceeding the 200% threshold.

The same legislation called for a program goal to dispense 40% of the funding to EJ/distressed communities by 2030. Currently, the closest proxy we have to that number, the Plus rebates, sits at about 6%, looking at the data since the end of June. That is a lot higher than it used to be, but nowhere near 40%. Clearly, a direction has been set for the program and we should expect to see changes between now and then.

One of the changes that has driven higher participation in the Plus rebate process is the option of a pre-qualification voucher. That way, the buyer knows they’re approved before the purchase, and the incentive can come off the invoice price (as opposed to a post-purchase reimbursement which is what it was initially).

Will The Marketplace Change In A Way That Affects This?

Much of the non-Tesla part of the manufacturing side of the industry has announced pullbacks in their BEV expansion plans and a revived emphasis on plug-in hybrids. The numbers in the CHEAPR program aren’t showing this to this point, though there is a lagging effect in terms of announcements relative to consumer adoption. The point is that if PHEVs gain market share, it will slow the burn rate. Unlike in the Inflation Reduction Act, PHEV incentives in CHEAPR are much lower than BEV incentives, $750 vs $2250 at current rates.

Fleet Incentive Postponement

A major program enhancement passed in the 2021 legislation and codified in Public Act 22-25 is the implementation of a very inclusive incentive for fleets – commercial, non-profit, municipal, and tribal. There had been $2 million budgeted for this in 2024, but the program is still in the design phase and will not launch this year. As indicated by the $2 million (which is not necessarily the number going forward), this is a finite resource. Equity will be prioritized for fleets, but it is not the only consideration. The tentative rubric that was developed for prioritizing the submissions is described in this earlier blog post from the time of the legislative session.

Rebates by Make/Model

This is the number of rebates by make/model for available Q3 data. Keep in mind that qualifying vehicles must have a base trim-level MSRP of no more than $50,000. (This is different than the Inflation Reduction Act federal incentive MSRP definition, where the price cap includes factory-installed options.)

Vehicle to Band

Heard at the NorthEast Electric Vehicle Symposium, dateline September 16, 2024…

An important partner for the EV Club is the PACE organization (People’s Action for Clean Energy). PACE president, Mark Scully, plays in a band, Temporary Sanity, that had an outdoor gig at Burlington Tavern Day over the weekend. Since there was no power near the stage, a gas generator was used, which unfortunately, ran out of gas midway through the set. Talk about range anxiety!

However, the band’s sound tech drives a Rivian R1T, so no problem! They just plugged the equipment into the vehicle. It worked seamlessly and barely made a dent in the battery state of charge. Let’s think about this – what would use more energy, powering an electric guitar or moving a 7,148 pound vehicle?

It’s not quite “Where’s Waldo,” but the truck is a little hard to spot – it is on the right side of the photo, powering zero-emission tunes.

EVs are hard to beat, but they also have a good beat and you can dance to them.

New Rivian Test Drive Center

Rivian recently opened a service and test drive center in Blauvelt, New York. Blauvelt is just across the Mario Cuomo (Tappan Zee) Bridge in Rockland County. The recently opened service center in Shelton does not offer test-drives. That is why it was a treat to have them join us at the Symposium to offer test-drives locally.

Truck-Powered Presentations

For those of you who saw the Sunday presentations delivered from the bed of a Ford F150 Lightning pickup, the mic and PA were powered by the truck, courtesy of our sponsor, Earthlight Technology. Below is Bryce Jones of Pirelli Tires speaking about what goes into an EV tire.

It was nice harmony that we were able to have a representative from Pirelli Tires present at the Hotel Marcel, which in a previous life served as a Pirelli manufacturing facility and headquarters.

Bryce Jones of Pirelli Tires presenting 0n the bed of a Ford F-150 Lightning under a solar canopy.

Photo: Shawn O’Sullivan

Hotel Marcel, formerly Pirelli Tires HQ, with solar canopies in foreground.

NorthEast Electric Vehicle Symposium Set for September 15th and 16th

We thank our Gold Sponsor: BMW

Sunday – EV Test Drives

Sunday will feature test drives with 10 EV models:

• BMW i4, i5, iX
• Tesla Cybertruck
• Rivian R1T, R1S
• Alfa Romeo Tonale
• Kia EV6, EV9, Niro

Sunday – EV Showcase

There will be a showcase with approximately 50 vehicles. These include many late-model EVs, such as a BMW i7 and a Tesla Model X, an electric garbage truck used by the City of New Haven, and 2 electric police patrol cars from Westport.

Sunday – “Sage on a Stage” Short Presentations

We will be using the bed of an electric pickup truck as our stage! Here is the agenda.

Monday Policy Symposium

• 9:00 – New Haven Mayor Justin Eliker welcomes attendees
• 9:15 – Rep. Jonathan Steinberg introduces Marissa Gillett
• 9:25 – Marissa Gillett, Chair, Public Utilities Regulatory Authority discussing transportation electrification and the equitable modern grid
• 10:15 –  Claire Coleman, CT Office of Consumer Counsel
• 10:45 – Break
• 11:00 – Moderator Matt Ferrell of the YouTube Undecided Channel leads a panel discussion of people from a municipality, condo association, commercial enterprise, and an installation contractor, who describe their experiences navigating incentives, wrangling the utilities, and other challenges. This is a ground-truth level look at the intersection of policy and lived experience.
• 12:00 Lunch
• 1:00 – Brandon Smith of EVNoire discusses how workplace charging promotes fair access to EVs.
• 1:45 – Daphne Dixon of Live Green CT discusses Model EV Zoning Regulations that have been developed in concert with the federal Department of Energy.

This is a free event. The location is the Hotel Marcel in New Haven. Free registration is here.

EVA-EVInfoSheet-20240818

Above photo is a wrapped Cybertruck which ships with the stainless steel body panels. We have seen lots of folks having fun with wrapping it.

First Public Test Drives of a Cybertruck to Be Offered at NorthEast Electric Vehicle Symposium

Tesla has confirmed that they will offer supervised Cybertruck test drives. This will be the first public test drive of the Cybertruck offered in the state. We hope you can join us!

Steer By Wire, High Voltage Architecture

While there are many strong opinions about this polarizing vehicle, Tesla has introduced features that have not yet been rolled out to other models. The vehicle is reportedly extremely nimble due to 4-wheel steering and steer-by-wire. A little bit of pressure on the steering wheel sends a signal down the wire to the motors, making for extremely responsive handling. This ~6500 pound vehicle will handle like a compact car.

The truck has an 800-volt architecture which, for high-power EVSE, will make for blazingly fast charging speeds. The other thing 800 volt architecture does is reduce the amount of wiring needed.

The not so low-voltage battery is a 48 volt lithium ion battery. We have been living with 12-volt since the mid-fifties (before then, the standard was 6-volt). Over the past 70 years, way more electronics have been introduced into vehicles. It is only a matter of time until higher power levels become the norm.

Here’s Where to Go Cybertruckin

NorthEast Electric Vehicle Symposium

Date/Time: Sunday, September 15th, 12-4

Location: Hotel Marcel, 500 Sargent Drive, New Haven, CT

Policy symposium on Monday, September 16th

The event page is here.

Free registration is required. We do have a capacity limitation. Please register here.

Other available test drive vehicles include the BMW i4, i5, and iX, the Rivian R1T and R1S, and the Alfa Romeo Tonale. It is permitted to test drive multiple vehicles. That will be arranged separately.

Attendees can register for either or both days.

For any questions, please contact us at info@evclubct.com

BMW Signs on as Gold Sponsor

They will offer test drives of the i4, i5, and iX battery electric vehicles. There will be an i7 on display in the showcase.

In addition to BMW, we have confirmation for the Rivian R1T and R1S, as well as Tesla Model 3 and Model Y. We are working on a couple of others.

There will also be a Tesla Cybertruck and a Rivian e-delivery van in the showcase. Amazon has purchased 100,000 of these vans and Rivian is using them for mobile service.

Test drives are offered on Sunday, September 15th, from 12-4PM. The event is being held at the Hotel Marcel in the Long Wharf area of New Haven. Here is the event page with registration link for the NorthEast Electric Vehicle Symposium 2024.

Photo above – EV registration trends. Post and chart by Barry Kresch

Updated EV Registration Counts as of July 1, 2024

• 52,691 Registered Electric Vehicles in CT
• 33,386 Battery Electric Vehicles
• 19,211 Plug-in Hybrids
• 91 eMotorcycles
• 3 Fuel Cell

These data come from the Department of Energy and Environmental Protection (DEEP) and is the semi-annual update that is required by the legislature. We won’t have the full dataset that enables us to publish the dashboard for a couple of months.

The increase over the past 12 months has been 57%. Despite the frequent gloom and doom reporting in the general press around EVs, we are just not seeing it in the CT registration data. The sales data are pretty positive, too. According to Kelly Blue Book, EVs as a percentage of total car sales was 8% nationally, a record, exceeding the previous record of 7.2% set in the second quarter of last year.

EV Makes

Just one caveat as we look at some of the top performers. This is a relatively unclean dataset. For example, Subaru is spelled 3 different ways and shows up as 3 separate totals. I have not cleaned this up. I do this for the main dashboard. Also, the file does not enable the cross-filtering that can be done in the dashboard.

Tesla still maintains a far larger share than any other manufacturer but it is slipping. At 19,117 vehicles, its share of all EVs is 37.7%, down from 39.7% 12 months ago. Keep in mind, this is net registrations, so there is a lagging effect due to the historical base. Its share of BEVs is 57.3%, down from 63.8% one year ago.

The next two automakers, Toyota and Jeep are riding their successful PHEV models. In the case of Toyota, it is the RAV4 Prime and Prius Prime. Jeep has climbed to the third position as a result of its PHEV Wrangler and, to a lesser extent, the newer PHEV Grand Cherokee.

Hyundai has moved into fourth position with models such as the Ioniq, Ioniq 5, Kona, and some PHEV models.

The other makes with at least 1000 registered EVs are Chevrolet, Ford, BMW, Kia, and Volvo.

Models

The Tesla Model Y is the most widely registered EV in the state, overtaking the Model 3. As noted by Kelly Blue Book, the Model Y is now the best selling vehicle in the world (including ICE vehicles). In CT registrations, it jumped 67% from 12 months ago, so it is clearly selling well locally. It is also single-handedly buoying Tesla. The Y increased 29% from 6 months ago. Tesla overall grew 15%. If we exclude the Y from the base, the rest of Tesla grew only 5%.

The Jeep Wrangler also grew by 29%, though off a much lower base. The Toyota RAV4 Prime, the third largest EV with 2553 units, increased 16%.

The models with greater than 1000 registrations in rank order are the Tesla Model Y, Tesla Model 3, Jeep Wrangler PHEV, Toyota RAV4 PHEV Prime, Toyota Prius Prime PHEV, Tesla Model S, Chevy Bolt, Jeep Grand Cherokee PHEV, Tesla Model X, and Ford Mustang Mach-E.

Under Construction – Photo above is a selfie from YouTuber Out of Spec Dave, taken when he visited the new service facility last month before it was completed. Used with permission.

Opening Set for August 19th

The new Tesla service location in Stamford is set for a soft open on August 19th, with the official opening to follow in September. An announcement in April from Royal Properties indicated that Tesla had leased a 42,000 square foot location at 106 Commerce Road in Stamford. It is off I-95, exit 6, near the border of Old Greenwich. It is in a commercial district with lots of nearby shops and restaurants.

There will be a limited number of appointments booked in August while the facility ramps up over the course of the next month. Tesla still has its other CT service center in Milford. Stamford is in Fairfield County, which is home to 39% of all EVs in the state. Teslas make up 44% of all the EVs and 66% of all the battery electric vehicles in Fairfield County.

Of course, we all know there is a need for a service center upstate and Tesla was thwarted when trying to build in East Hartford and South Windsor.

Service, Not Sales

It can’t be said enough. This is a service center only. Connecticut’s particular flavor of free-market capitalism forbids Tesla and other EV manufacturers that don’t sell through dealerships from opening stores (unless you happen to be located on tribal land, which is not subject to the state franchise laws).

There will be a formal reception to inaugurate the new facility. Stay tuned.

Update – Opening postponed to August 26th.

post by Barry Kresch

CT Roundtable for Climate and Jobs Panel

The CT Roundtable for Climate and Jobs recently hosted a virtual event entitled “Transportation Infrastructure and Electric Vehicles in Connecticut.” I was one of two panelists, along with Jay Stange of Transport Hartford and the Center for Latino Progress.

In some ways, we were an odd pairing, since Jay’s transportation concerns are more about biking, walking, transit, and multi-modal transport. He is a lot more focused on e-bikes than EVs.

But maybe we are not such a mismatch. In many respects, we share similar views. The EV Club supports actions that reduce greenhouse gas emissions along with pollutants such as nitrogen oxides and particulate matter.  There is a need for affordable transit, not to mention our roads are undeniably choked with traffic. Some not specifically EV positions the club supports:

• Investment in mass transit and last-mile transport.
• Support for clean micro-mobility, such as e-bikes.
• Disappointment at the loss of free bus fare.
• Support for active transit – hike and bike trails, protected bike lanes on city streets.
• Reversal of the destruction of neighborhoods and the fabric of urban life due to the heedless way interstate highways were built.

That said, I hope he and other representatives of “Environmental Justice” (EJ) communities come to value the importance of accelerating EV adoption for the financial benefits accruing to EV owners, the health benefits of zero-emission vehicles, and the economic activity that the EV industry is creating. It would be unfortunate if this constituency were left behind.

The Value of EVs in EJ Communities

According to this paper by the University of Michigan, “More than 90% of vehicle-owning households in the United States would see a reduction in the percentage of income spent on transportation energy—the gasoline or electricity that powers their cars, SUVs and pickups—if they switched to electric vehicles.”

EV adoption improves air quality, and this improvement is especially beneficial to the EJ communities that sit at the nexus of our major highways, and which suffer disproportionately from asthma and other cardio-pulmonary conditions. Adoption by those living in the community and those who simply drive through the community are both needed.

There was a failed attempt late last year and again during this year’s legislative session for CT to adopt the second phase of the California emissions standards, known as Advanced Clean Cars II, that were designed to accelerate EV adoption. According to an analysis by the American Lung Association, the proposed ACC II standards would have yielded

• $11.5 billion in monetized health benefits
• avoided 1060 premature deaths
• avoided 22,900 asthma attacks
• avoided 120,000 lost workdays.

It has been a challenge politically to get EJ communities more involved in advocating for EVs, even though the transportation sector is by far the largest emitter. As advocates were wrangling support for ACC II during the legislative session, the lack of enthusiasm in the EJ community was palpable. The Black and Puerto Rican Caucus in the legislature largely stayed non-committal, or at least felt that they had other, more urgent priorities. In the face of unified Republican opposition, the Democrats were not able to maintain enough of their majority to pass it on their own.

The arguments we hear in opposition to advocating for higher rates of EV adoption are mostly that EVs are too expensive and there are not enough places for people who do not have a private garage to charge. The first argument is diminishing faster than many realize. The second is still a challenge but certainly a solvable one.

EV Prices Are Coming Down

EV prices are coming down due to a mix of lower battery costs and vehicle oversupply. The oversupply may not last forever, but the trend will continue as battery technology continues to improve and production gets scaled. Sometimes the lower price comes in the form of a discount, even though the MSRP hasn’t been changed. In addition, there are federal and state incentives that apply to a purchase or lease, as well as incentives for used vehicles. The federal and state incentives are stackable.

Let’s look at one example, the new Equinox from Chevrolet. The base trim level begins at $33,600. It is eligible for a $7500 federal incentive as well as a $4250 CHEAPR incentive from CT for EJ community residents. Given new authority from the legislature, the $4250 may increase to as much $6750. If that does happen, the cost would fall below $20,000. This is for a new car. There are incentives for used EVs as well, in the amount of up to $4000 (federal) and up to $3000 (state). As always with incentives, rules apply. See the EV Club incentives page for a guide.

Access to Charging

The second barrier, access to charging, is real, though it can be solved and there are lots of examples of how technology and policy can move this along.

This is primarily a level 2 charging problem, meaning that the need is for an adequate supply of 240-volt AC chargers. These chargers need to be situated in places where vehicles have a reasonable amount of dwell time to charge while they are parked. Level 2 charging is much less expensive and less of a stress on the grid than DC fast chargers.

• New multifamily buildings that have parking should be required to install EV spaces.
• New and existing apartments or condos can take advantage of generous incentives to install chargers. In EJ communities, there are adders that could enable most or even all of the cost to be covered.
• Chargers can be popped into streetlamps. There are some pilots in this country, but this is already in use in parts of Europe. It involves rewiring the streetlamp. If the lamp bulb is swapped out for an LED, then there is enough power to spare for the EV charger. Aside from streetlamps, there are other curbside options available.
• Banks of chargers can be situated in public parking areas.
• The Federal Department of Energy has an initiative promoting workplace charging for residents of these communities. The Club has booked a presenter from EVNoire for our conference in September who will discuss this.
• There are efforts to electrify “distributed fleets” (e.g. Uber and Lyft). The New York City Taxi and Limousine Commission is requiring these fleets to be electrified as a condition of licensure. There is a program in California called the Clean Miles Standard Program that aims, using incentives and mandates, to have 90% of these fleets be electric by 2030. Many of these drivers live in working class communities. It will help speed acceptance of EVs. This may require at least supplemental use of DC Fast chargers as some of these vehicles spend a large part of the day in service.

EV adoption by municipal fleets is a great lead by example opportunity. At our conference in September, we will have an electric school bus and electric garbage truck, both from the City of New Haven. There will also be an electric police patrol car from the Town of Westport.

Finally, just building chargers isn’t enough. Nothing works without an investment in public education and outreach.

We thank the CT Roundtable for Climate and Jobs for hosting this event and discussing this important topic. Click here to find the recording of this event.

Post by Barry Kresch

The Utilities and PURA Have Worked Out Their Differences

I spoke today to United Illuminating and they advise that they and the Public Utilities Regulatory Commission have come to a meeting of the minds. The EV charging incentives are back and here to stay, that this is not merely a “suspension of the suspension.”

The incentive program is the same for both Eversource and UI, except for some minor differences in approved chargers and telematics vehicles due to the companies using different third-party program implementers. Eversource advises that they ended up not pausing the incentives.

Eversource further advises that these are the current status in terms of funds availability in the different parts of the program. (We don’t have status from UI.)

• Most business level 2 verticals are filled except for Workplace. They are putting new applicants on a waitlist.
• Level 2 residential is still available.
• DCFC applications are being accepted through September 1.

UI’s claim is that the dispute centered around timely reimbursement. The program is a pass-through. They get reimbursed for the funds outlay and carrying charges, but do not make a profit on this. Delays in the reimbursement may cause them to delay other investments or potentially impact their cost of capital.

We don’t feel in a position to critically evaluate their assertions vis a vis PURA, but that is what we heard today. Regardless, it is good news that the dispute is behind us.