CHEAPR Changes Likely to Impact the Tesla Model 3

The Potential Impact of the Lower CHEAPR Price Cap

Looking at the implication of the changes made to the CHEAPR rebate criteria on October 15, the lower price cap seems directly targeted at excluding the Model 3. The state (and everyone concerned about emissions) seeks to accelerate EV sales, and the Model 3 has higher sales volume than all of the other EV models combined (including BEV and PHEV), according to sales data published by Inside EVs. (Other vehicles will be affected by this, mainly from BMW and Volvo, but there were few rebates for these vehicles.)

The lower trim levels of the Model 3 have been within the previous $50,000 price cap. While it is possible to buy a Model 3 for under $42,000, you are pretty much limited to the base standard range and rear-wheel drive with no options.

Since Tesla began ramping production in the latter part of 2018, the Model 3 accounts for 46% of rebates as reported on the CHEAPR stats page.

CHEAPR rebates 5/31/18 - 9/30/19
CHEAPR Rebates by Model, 5/31/18 – 9/30/19

If we restrict the range to only 2019 (almost – the range begins on 12/24/18), the numbers are more dramatic with the Model 3 accounting for 54% of rebates, six times the next highest-ranking model, the Toyota Prius Prime.

CHEAPR rebates 2019
CHEAPR rebates by model, 12/24/18 – 9/30/19

As can be seen from the filter settings on the above charts, CHEAPR stats are posted through 9/30 as of this writing. From what we have observed, the posting of the stats lags by 3-4 weeks. We don’t know if there is any lead/lag in the implementation (i.e. orders placed before 10/15 with the vehicle delivered afterward). In approximately 8 weeks, depending on the timing of future data loads, we will examine what impact the changes have had, and, over time, we’ll see if it slows overall EV adoption in CT.

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