The Department of Energy and Environmental Protection (DEEP) issued the attached Notice of Technical Meeting for February 8, 2019, from 9 a.m. to 4:30 p.m. ET, in the Gina McCarthy Auditorium, DEEP Headquarters, 79 Elm Street, Hartford, Connecticut. 

The purpose of the technical meeting is to inform the recommendations of the EV Roadmap. The technical meeting will consist of four panel discussions with subject matter experts presenting on key topics, followed by a question and answer session with the audience. 

November 26, 2018

AN ELECTRIC VEHICLE ROADMAP FOR CONNECTICUT

NOTICE OF SCOPING MEETING AND OPPORTUNITY FOR PUBLIC COMMENT

As recommended by the Comprehensive Energy Strategy issued on February 8, 2018, the Department of Energy and Environmental Protection (DEEP) initiates this proceeding to develop an electric vehicle roadmap (EV Roadmap) for Connecticut. The EV Roadmap is anticipated to identify Connecticut-specific policies, programs, and strategies that the State of Connecticut should pursue to optimize deployment of electric vehicles (EVs) and associated infrastructure. Moreover, the EV Roadmap is intended to support development of a self-sustaining EV market, and ensure that increased electricity demand from EV deployment is a benefit rather than an impairment to the electric grid.

DEEP will conduct a scoping meeting on December 14, 2018, at 10 a.m. EST, in Hearing Room 2 at DEEP’s New Britain Office, Ten Franklin Square, New Britain, Connecticut. The purpose of the meeting is to brief stakeholders on the proposed scope of the EV Roadmap proceeding and to take public comment on the proposed scope of the EV Roadmap, which is provided below.

Draft Scope EV Roadmap

Overview

The EV Roadmap will outline the 2030 vision and objectives necessary to support the deployment of increasing numbers of light-duty zero emission vehicles (ZEVs) in Connecticut necessary to meet air quality and climate goals and to inform the parameters DEEP will consider when soliciting electric vehicle supply equipment (EVSE) infrastructure proposals under the VW NOx Mitigation Grant. In so doing, the document will review and describe a summary of user trends and projections, regional and federal efforts to date, and zero emission options beyond light-duty fleet applications.

Accelerating ZEV adoption and creating a robust fueling infrastructure Even with increasing demand, a growing roster of vehicle models, and an expanding network of both public and private infrastructure, the EV market is still in an early stage of maturation. To further support development of a self-sustaining EV market and the necessary infrastructure, the EV Roadmap will build on existing efforts already underway and make recommendations on the following elements:

• Education, outreach, and marketing
• Public and private fleet strategies
• Sustainable funding in the form of incentives, financing, manufacturer partnerships, or other
• Partnering with dealerships
• Bringing clean transportation options to low- to moderate-income communities
• Streamlining building codes and permitting
• Future proofing
• Interoperability
• Consistency of customer experience
• Data collection (EV registrations, charging station data, etc.)

Fueling/charging cases

Increasing market penetration of ZEVs requires increased deployment of fueling/charging infrastructure. In turn, accessible and reliable infrastructure will support and encourage further adoption of ZEVs in the state. Building out self-sustaining fueling/charging networks will require ongoing private-public partnerships and open communication to ensure that planning efforts are coordinated among multiple fueling/charging cases, including public, residential, and workplace charging.

The EV Roadmap will discuss and make recommendations on the following fueling/charging cases:

Public

• Public charging infrastructure ownership models
• EV fast charging
• Corridors, destinations, state facilities and properties, around town
• Hydrogen refueling stations

Residential • Single family homes

• Multi-unit dwellings

Workplace

• Workplace charging opportunities
• Outreach to promote workplace charging
• Opportunities to reduce impact of charging during peak hours
• Workplace charging host guidance
• Leadership recognition

Rate design and demand charges

Rate design and demand charges for residential, commercial and industrial customers set market signals. Market signals may be necessary to encourage beneficial off-peak charging that improves the efficiency of the grid and reduces costs for all electric ratepayers. Further, ZEVs can be a demand- response resource and/or function as distributed energy storage, enabling a reduction in investments in new electricity infrastructure and shifting load from peak to off-peak hours.

The EV Roadmap will explore and recommend crafting a rate design and demand charge strategy that encourages EV adoption while mitigating adverse electric demand and costs and harnesses the benefits of EV flexible load capabilities.

ZEV’s beyond light-duty vehicles

The EV Roadmap will discuss emerging applications for medium- and heavy-duty vehicle and non- road electrification in order to identify cost-effective strategies that target transportation electrification opportunities beyond light-duty vehicles including fleet and freight applications.

Planning forward with VW EVSE

As a part of the Volkswagen settlement, Connecticut has been allocated almost $56 million for use towards offsetting the excess oxides of nitrogen (NOx) emissions caused by VW’s actions. DEEP’s plan for the allocation of VW funds is set forth in the State of Connecticut Mitigation Plan and focuses on extensive mitigation projects to reduce NOx from a wide array of mobile sources. In accordance with a federal Consent Decree (Appendix D-2), Connecticut reserved up to 15 percent of these funds for electric and hydrogen vehicle infrastructure/EVSE.

EVSE project funding, like NOx mitigation funding, will be awarded through an open, competitive and transparent process that will comply with all applicable state and federal procurement requirements.

In November 2018, DEEP issued $12.1 million for a variety of clean air projects. DEEP will offer additional rounds of funding at a later date and will include a competitive grant opportunity for electric and hydrogen vehicle charging/fueling infrastructure. The EV Roadmap will both inform and outline funding priorities in this category.

DEEP plans on following the preliminary timeline detailed below:

Action Preliminary Timeframe DEEP initiates EV Roadmap proceeding and notices scoping meeting November 21, 2018 DEEP scoping meeting December 14, 2018, at 10:00 a.m.

Comments due on proposed scope December 20, 2018, by 4:00 p.m.

DEEP technical meeting January 2019 DEEP issues draft EV Roadmap February 2019 DEEP hearing on draft EV Roadmap February 2019 Comments due on draft version EV Roadmap March 2019 DEEP issues final EV Roadmap April – May 2019

By way of this Notice, DEEP is accepting public comment on the proposed scope of the EV Roadmap proceeding through December 20, 2018, by 4:00 p.m. EST. Written comments may be filed electronically on DEEP’s website or submitted to DEEP.EnergyBureau@ct.gov. All materials submitted by stakeholders in this proceeding will be posted on DEEP’s Energy Filings website under the matter “EV Roadmap.” Any questions can be directed to Debra Morrell at (860) 827-2688 and/or via e-mail at DEEP.EnergyBureau@ct.gov.

The Connecticut Department of Energy and Environmental Protection is an Affirmative Action/Equal Opportunity Employer that is committed to complying with the requirements of the Americans with Disabilities Act. Please contact us at (860) 418-5910 or deep.accommodations@ct.gov if you: have a disability and need a communication aid or service; have limited proficiency in English and may need information in another language; or wish to file an ADA or Title VI discrimination complaint. Any person needing a hearing accommodation may call the State of Connecticut relay number – 711. Requests for accommodations must be made at least two weeks prior to any agency hearing, program or event.

Notice filed with the Secretary of State on November 26, 2018.

The New Peak Oil

There was a documentary film called “Collapse,” which premiered at the Toronto International Film Festival in 2009 about a self-styled investigative journalist named Michael Ruppert who claims to have predicted the 2008 financial crisis. In this film, he purports to forecast a looming disaster caused by an insufficient supply of fossil fuels to support a growing world economy. “The mortal blow in human industrialized civilization will happen when oil prices spike and nobody can afford to buy that oil and everything will just shut down,” is how he characterized it.

Had that come to pass, it would certainly would have created some urgency to find alternatives. But that was then. Less than a decade later, we find ourselves awash in fracked oil and natural gas, and in the midst of a slow-burning (pun intended) climate crisis, where the political leadership at the Federal level in our own country, the largest country in terms of cumulative greenhouse gas emissions and the second largest in terms of current emissions, is more resistant to doing something about it than almost all other countries.

While Ruppert was wrong about “peak oil”, he made another comment that was more prescient with respect to the larger political dynamic: “It’s kind of sad because we as a species have become so disconnected from the Earth. We don’t have any real contact with the Earth. We don’t have any sense of its functions, its feeling, its seasons, its timings.”

If you would like more of a freak-out, albeit in a more soberly detailed, journalistic style, try reading The Sixth Extinction by Elizabeth Kolbert, who discusses (among other things) species adaptation in past cycles of climatic change and how this time is different. (It’s happening a lot faster, folks, too fast for evolution to keep up.)

Peak Oil and EVs

Where this fits with EVs, of course, is that transportation accounts for 40% of petroleum use globally. The meaning of the phrase “peak oil” has changed from meaning the scarcity of supply to the turning point in consumption level. The projected EV adoption rate is a big factor in determining when that occurs.

According to a survey of forecasts published by Bloomberg, the earliest this is likely to happen is shortly before 2030, as forecasted by Bank of America. The intersection point in terms of the cost curves of EVs and conventional vehicles is forecasted to be 2025. The point at which EV sales surpass ICE sales is forecasted to be 2038. Others, such as major petroleum exporters Saudi Arabia and Russia, forecast this peak oil point to be further out, more like 2050. 

The Landscape

One may be forgiven for feeling a sense of cognitive dissonance when looking at the landscape for EVs in the USA.

• We have not reached the tipping point with consumers purchasing plug-in vehicles.
• There is a Federal tax credit, flaws and all.
• Tax credit notwithstanding, the political environment at the Federal level is largely unfavorable to clean energy. Auto manufacturers have had success in persuading the current administration to back away from phase two of the Obama CAFÉ requirements.
• There is a mixed landscape across the states with some offering incentives and others that add a surcharge to EV registrations.
• Many dealers are reluctant to sell EVs. (This is a link to a 2015 NY Times articleabout this subject. This is a link to a more recent, candid, and thoughtful article by an employee at a Chevy dealership about the challenges of selling EVs, even when working for a dealer who is supportive.)
• EVs remain under-marketed.
• A recently reported study conducted by KPMGof 1000 auto industry executives reported negative sentiment for near/medium term EV prospects. To quote from Green Car Reports, “76% of executives see internal combustion engine vehicles as still more important than electric drivetrains for a very long time.” They felt the biggest hurdle is a lack of charging station infrastructure. (Strangely, they were more bullish on fuel-cell vehicles to break out, even though there is even less hydrogen infrastructure.)

And yet there have been numerous ambitious announcements by major legacy auto manufacturers.

• GM has announced the development of a modular EV platform that will be the basis for 20 or more vehicles. This flexible platform is intended to lower the cost substantially. They anticipate selling1MM EVs per year (globally) by 2026 (and “bury Tesla”).
• Ford announced an $11 billion investment in 40 plug-in vehicles by 2022.
• Volvo intends to phase out gasoline engines by 2024.
• Fiat/Chrysler announced the future of automobiles is electric. This by CEO Sergio Marchionne, the same person who several years ago asked customers not to by his Fiat 500e BEV.
• Volkswagen, in the wake of “dieselgate,” has announced a pivot to EVs and, as part of the settlement for the diesel emissions fraud, a $2 billion investment in charging infrastructure.

At least part of the reason for these plans is what is happening outside of the USA.

• The EV poster child is Norway, where 52% of new car sales are now EVs, and their goal is to phase out diesel and gasoline by 2025. They are using a panoply of carrots and sticks, including generous subsidies, to drive this result which they hope can be phased out over the next 10 years. And the price of gasoline is 15.86 krone per liter (Jan 2018), or about $7.65 per gallon (compared to $2.53 in the USA, per AAA).
• Paris plans to ban diesel by 2025 and phase out gasoline vehicles by 2030. Britain and France plan to ban the sale of gasoline and diesel vehicles country-wide by 2040.
• China has ordered the discontinuation of 553 vehicle models that are the most polluting.
• Japan now has more charging stations than gasoline stations.

Plug-in vehicle models are becoming more numerous. Electric propulsion is beginning to be incorporated into larger vehicles. The energy density in batteries is steadily improving. Prices are coming down to the point where, eventually, incentives won’t matter. The EVs on the market now have mostly been well-received, are fun to drive, and will only get better and more diverse.

While there are different forecasts about when EV sales will overtake those of internal combustion vehicles and when peak oil consumption will occur, nobody thinks it won’t happen. The Georgetown Climate Center held a webinar on February 13 regarding planning for charging infrastructure for an EV corridor in the Northeast. Just to excerpt one sentence with respect to combating carbon emissions, “Without electrification of the transportation sector, there is no clear path to meeting our goals.”