Mid-Price Model 3 Expected To Begin Deliveries in June

It’s a nice problem to have. Last summer, Elon Musk announced that due to too much demand, Tesla was suspending production of its long-range, non-performance variant of the Model 3. Now, it’s back.

According to the Tesla.com configurator, the vehicle now costs $47,240 before options, taxes and destination charges, or $6,000 less than the performance version. That’s today, anyway. Like the performance Model 3, it comes with dual-motor, all-wheel drive. 0 to 60 acceleration is 4.2 seconds, compared with 3.1 in the performance trim. We haven’t fully gone through the purchase funnel, but the previous version of the non-performance trim offered a post-purchase $2,000 “faster acceleration” upgrade.

Lithium Iron Phosphate (LFP) Battery

Where the new version appears to differ from the prior version is the battery. This is a shorter, long-range version at 325 miles, compared to 358 miles previously. Also, the vehicle is eligible for half of the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) purchase incentive or $3,750. Taken together, the shorter range and lower incentive indicate that Tesla is using some variation of the Lithium Iron Phosphate (LFP) battery that it has been using in the RWD standard-range Model 3.

Based on how the IRA incentive works, the minerals for these batteries are most likely coming from Tesla’s Chinese battery partner, CATL, with battery assembly occurring in one of Tesla’s domestic plants. In a couple of years, when the “foreign entities of concern” rule phases in, which will exclude all things China, the vehicle will either lose the incentive entirely or Tesla will have to set up an IRA-compliant supply chain.

LFP batteries have some advantages, such as lower cost, no use of cobalt or nickel, and excellent durability. They are, however, less energy-dense and reportedly more subject to cold-weather range loss, but the chemistry is evolving and we have not seen any data at this point for this new vehicle. (This is the first production-version LFP battery to exceed 300 miles of range.) These batteries can be routinely charged to 100% with no consequences. So, as a practical matter, for daily use, if an owner of the prior lithium-ion long-range vehicle charged to 80%, the mileage nets to 286 miles, less than the 325 for the new battery.

We expect to see more EVs with LFP batteries. For example, Ford announced a partnership with CATL to build an LFP factory in Michigan. (The IRS rule making has not yet addressed whether a domestic battery venture with a Chinese company will be incentive-eligible. Iron has not been classified as a critical mineral, which may help.) 3 major South Korean battery companies (Samsung, LG, and SK) have been reported by Bloomberg to have LFP projects under development, including in North America. Bloomberg also reports, aside from Tesla and Ford, that Mercedes, Volkswagen, and Rivian are moving to incorporate LFP batteries.

Small Difference After Incentive

Unlike this new long-range and the standard range, the performance Model 3 is eligible for the full IRA incentive. That nets out to only a $2250 difference between the performance and long-range trim levels. We welcome the re-introduction of this intermediate trim level, but will this relatively small net difference be enough to matter?

The other thing that is orbiting is that Tesla is redesigning the Model 3. Details are few at this point but both the vehicle and the pricing could be affected.

UPDATE: This model is now eligible for the full IRA incentive, indicating that Tesla was able to make its supply-chain compliant.

The Potential Impact of the Lower CHEAPR Price Cap

Looking at the implication of the changes made to the CHEAPR rebate criteria on October 15, the lower price cap seems directly targeted at excluding the Model 3. The state (and everyone concerned about emissions) seeks to accelerate EV sales, and the Model 3 has higher sales volume than all of the other EV models combined (including BEV and PHEV), according to sales data published by Inside EVs. (Other vehicles will be affected by this, mainly from BMW and Volvo, but there were few rebates for these vehicles.)

The lower trim levels of the Model 3 have been within the previous $50,000 price cap. While it is possible to buy a Model 3 for under $42,000, you are pretty much limited to the base standard range and rear-wheel drive with no options.

Since Tesla began ramping production in the latter part of 2018, the Model 3 accounts for 46% of rebates as reported on the CHEAPR stats page.

If we restrict the range to only 2019 (almost – the range begins on 12/24/18), the numbers are more dramatic with the Model 3 accounting for 54% of rebates, six times the next highest-ranking model, the Toyota Prius Prime.

As can be seen from the filter settings on the above charts, CHEAPR stats are posted through 9/30 as of this writing. From what we have observed, the posting of the stats lags by 3-4 weeks. We don’t know if there is any lead/lag in the implementation (i.e. orders placed before 10/15 with the vehicle delivered afterward). In approximately 8 weeks, depending on the timing of future data loads, we will examine what impact the changes have had, and, over time, we’ll see if it slows overall EV adoption in CT.

The glimmer of blue sky in the photo was a brief break in the otherwise cloudy, cold, and windy spring day on which the 8th annual Westport Maker Faire was held.

The EV club was there in force with a Tesla Model S, Tesla Model X, Tesla Model 3, BMW i3s, BMW i8, Jaguar I-Pace, and Chevrolet Volt in a joint exhibit with TecKnow Smart Home Automation and Ross Solar – smart homes, smart cars, and renewable energy.

Visitor traffic from attendees was steady throughout the day. Club members were on hand to provide information about the vehicles and what it is like to drive electric. The number of EV options is proliferating, and these showcases are a good way for people who are pressed for time to gain an understanding of the types of cars that are available and what driving electric is all about.

The Tesla “summon” feature was a big hit with visitors and allowed some youngsters to get their first taste of “driving” electric (safely and legally, of course – part of our nefarious long-term plan for all 6-year olds to demand to drive EVs when they get their license in 10 years.)

A few specifics about the vehicles present at the showcase:

Tesla Model S – 370 miles of range with long-range option.

Tesla Model X – 325 miles of range with long-range option.

Tesla Model 3 – 310 miles with long-range option.

(Note: these are current ranges – Tesla has improved the maximum range over time.)

BMW i3s – 153 miles of range (plus another 47 on gasoline with the optional range extender gasoline engine).

BMW i8 – This is a plug-in hybrid which gets 18 miles of electric range before the gasoline power kicks in and extends the range for another 312 miles at 38 MPG.

Jaguar I-Pace – A battery electric vehicle like the Teslas with a range of 234 miles.

Chevrolet Volt – A plug-in hybrid with 53 miles of electric range and another 370 miles on gas at 42 MPG. This vehicle has been discontinued by GM as of last month. The final model year is 2019 and there are is still some availability.

First Tesla Model 3 in CT

Westport Electric Car Club Member Bruce Becker is the recipient of the first Model 3 from Tesla to be delivered to Connecticut. As an existing (or should we say pre-existing) Tesla owner of a Model S, along with an early dive into the packed reservation queue, Becker was able to land his prize. The only way to have gotten it sooner would have been to be a Tesla employee. As of the end of January, Tesla had only delivered 3,647 units of the Model 3 with a backlog of over 400,000 non-binding reservations.

A gathering at the charging stations outside of Staples High School in Westport brought a number of onlookers and local officials. The timing is propitious as the CT State Legislature has just convened it’s “short session.” There will be another push to pass legislation that would allow Tesla to open stores in Connecticut, which is one of only a handful of states that do not permit this. As a result, CT residents have to travel to neighboring states to purchase, depriving CT of millions in lost tax revenues, not to mention the economic activity that would result from Tesla investing in facilities and hiring locally, and not to mention that Tesla manufacturers clean transportation vehicles in the USA.

The Westport Electric Car Club has started a petition to tell our legislators to support this legislation. It is easy to virtually support this effort. Just text “EV CT” to 52886.

Bruce Becker, Model 3 Owner. Yes, that’s a BMW i8 in the back/center (Photo: Barry Kresch for WECC)

Details

Becker described the Model 3 as providing an exceptional driving experience, smooth, quiet, responsive, more fun even than his Model S.

 Westport First Selectman Jim Marpe was checking out the goods. (Photo: Barry Kresch for WECC)

View of the trunk and panoramic glass roof. (Photo: Barry Kresch for WECC)

Here is the “frunk.” No engine = more storage. (Photo: Barry Kresch for WECC)

All of the controls are part of the screen. Otherwise, the dash is a clean laminated strip, partly visible here between the screen and the steering wheel. (Photo: Barry Kresch for WECC)

Please support our petition. The legislature is on a short timeline to act and now is the time to be heard.