Barry Kresch

Interactive EV Dashboard – EV Adoption in Connecticut

Note: These data are obtained via a Freedom of Information Act Request from the Department of Motor Vehicles. The data are registrations, not sales, and represent all light-duty electric vehicles registered in the state through the end of last year. The definition of “electric vehicle” or “EV” follows what is used in the MultiState Zero Emission Action Plan Memorandum of Understanding (MOU). This MOU has sets forth the EV adoption goals the state has set for itself, which are 150,000 registered EVs by 2025 and 500,000 by 2030. The definition of EV in the MOU includes Battery Electric Vehicles (BEV), Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles (PHEV), Fuel Cell Electric Vehicles (FCEV), and Battery Electric Motorcycles (BEMC). These different “fuel types” are captured as a variable, enabling the report to be filtered, so for example, we can choose to only look at BEVs.

Why do this?

I don’t do this just to make pretty charts. In my past life in media, we used to have a saying: “If you can’t measure it, you can’t sell it.” The same holds true for public policy. The ZEV MOU already suffers from the fact that it is a resolution and has no teeth. The real work is all of the under-the-hood advocacy and policies that will get us to where we need to be. Those of us who work on behalf of the EV Club or in other organizations such as the Sierra Club, Save the Sound, or the League of Conservation Voters, know all too well that the devil is in the details. I put this out there for the purposes of policy planning, citizen advocacy, holding the state accountable regarding its progress toward achieving its ZEV Plan goals, and under the principle that transparency is best.

There are 21,382 EVs registered in CT as of Jan 1, representing 14.3% of the 2025 goal and 4.3% of the 2030 goal. It is obvious that we have a long way to go.

The DMV publishes top line data, but the details add texture and insight. Knowing where there are clusters (or deserts) of EVs can help with planning for charging expansion. We track the details of which fuel types are registered and which models are succeeding with consumers. The extreme example: there are only 3 fuel cell vehicles registered in the state. Is it a wise use of resources to promote this technology, which the state extensively does, and which inevitably comes at the expense of supporting electric vehicles and mass transit?

A new dataset is obtained every 6 months, based on current statutory reporting requirements. Changes in policy can be correlated with the differences we see over time in the trended data.

Finally, many people don’t know that it is possible to get these data using public records requests and that it breaks no laws. In this and a subsequent post, I summarize many, though not all, of the charts in the dashboard.

About the Charts

I have not displayed the values in some of the charts below due to lack of space. If you are interested in seeing all of the data that I have charted, it is in a BI dashboard and posted to the website here. The values are displayed either by default or by hovering over a chart element. There are slicers (checkboxes) on most of the pages that can be used to filter the data. To check multiple boxes, depress the command key on a Mac or the control key on a PC. There are 29 pages (subject to change). Pagination is below the fold. Scroll down and click on it, and it will display the other pages and page titles.

Fuel Type

Battery Electric Vehicles account for 59% of EVs and growing faster than PHEVs. This is largely due to the Tesla Models 3 and Y. BEVs are up 59% from one year ago, while PHEVs are up 50%. There are currently 12,513 BEVs, compared with 8,827 PHEVs.

Tesla still has a commanding lead among EV makes

With 8944 registrations, Tesla is still way out in front of all other manufacturers. It is almost 3 times that of the number 2 make, Toyota, which has 3238, followed by Chevy with 1855. If the data are filtered for BEVs, the number 2 make is Chevy with 824.

Tesla accounts for 42% of all registered EVs and 71% of all battery electric vehicles (BEV). Despite numerous announcements from other manufacturers, this number has been holding steady with each successive wave of data.

Tesla – 8944 Registrations

There were more Model 3’s entering the file than the Y even though the reporting is that the Y is Tesla’s top-seller. This pattern is likely due to supply constraints. We know that customers are waiting a long time for their Model Y. The new plant in Austin, TX is expected to go online soon which will help alleviate the supply crunch. In the chart below, which is the trend in net registrations, the Y is growing faster than the 3, which speaks to the 3 having higher turnover, not unexpected for a vehicle that has now been around long enough for lease expirations or turnover for other reasons.

Toyota – 3238 Registrations

The Prius Prime and RAV4 Prime models, which account for almost all of the Toyota registrations, are plug-in hybrids. The RAV EV is a battery electric vehicle that was built in small numbers as a compliance car. The Mirai is a fuel-cell vehicle. There are 3 of them in the state and none currently for sale in CT as far as we know. Toyota did a refresh of the Mirai that became available in November 2021. They have been the manufacturer pushing hardest for fuel cell. Toyota is introducing its first battery electric vehicle, the bZ4X, an electric SUV (or EUV) later this year, according to its website.

It looks like Toyota has a hit on its hands with its RAV4 Prime. It came out of the gate strongly, but its success seems to be coming at the expense of the Prius Prime, where growth has greatly slowed. Note: The version of the Prius that pre-dated the Prime, simply known as the Plug-in Prius (one of those, “Why did they bother building this?” head-scratchers with a pitifully short electric range of only 11 miles), is folded into the Prius Prime numbers. (There are 1838 Primes and 421 of the older model.)

Chevrolet – 1855 Registrations

Chevy was at one time the leader in number of EVs registered, mainly driven by the now defunct Volt PHEV. Of course, Chevy is the tragic story of last year with the extensive recall of the Bolt due to a small, but unpredictable, incidence of battery fires. After the Bolt’s refresh with a lower price point, sales picked up, but the recall slammed on the parking brake. The Bolt has yet to overtake the declining Volt.

Chevy has made a number of high-profile announcements, including an electric Silverado pickup and an electric Equinox, both anticipated as 2024 model year vehicles.

Ford – 1034 Registrations

The big news from Ford was the introduction of the BEV Mustang Mach-E and the F150 Lightning. There was a limited production run of the Mustang this year, but enough to make a noticeable difference. There is a much smaller bump for the Escape PHEV. Deliveries of the F150 Lightning will begin later this year. Ford reports a strong order book and this will be the first EV pickup for sale, reaching the market faster than the Chevy Silverado and Tesla Cybertruck.

Hyundai – 897 Registrations

There was some progress with the Kona BEV. The big introduction of the year was the Ioniq 5. The file from the DMV includes the “Ioniq EV” with no “5” designation, so we may not yet be seeing it.

BMW – 875 Registrations

BMW was a relatively early EV player, with the BEV i3 and high-end, sporty PHEV i8 models. It has a relatively large number of models, mostly PHEV, mostly uninspiring performers. Recently, they have gotten some traction with the X5 PHEV. The imminent launches of the iX and i4 may build on this.

Note: for these charts, I combined the i3 and i3 REx. DMV classifies the i3 as a BEV and the REx as a PHEV, even though the range extender is an under-powered engine that enables you to get to a place to plug in, a preferable option to being dead-sticked, but not intended to function like a regular car as with other PHEVs. Most of the i3s are of the REx variety.

Volvo – 654 Registrations

Volvo had exclusively been selling PHEVs with modest success with its XC90. More recently it introduced the BEV XC40 Recharge.

Nissan – 652 Registrations

Nissan sold the first mass market EV to go on sale in this country, the BEV Leaf. It is still with us, though never a particularly strong seller. Nissan has announced an electric SUV called the Ariya, scheduled to be on sale by the fall of this year as a 2023 model.

Jeep – 489 Registrations

The first plug-in from Jeep became available in the state this year, a PHEV Wrangler, and it has gotten off to a decent start.

A few more charts:

Porsche – 433 registrations

Its most recent model, the expensive BEV Taycan has had a faster growth curve than earlier PHEV entries.

Honda – 419 registrations

Despite its having gotten off to a strong start, Honda stopped supporting the PHEV Clarity in this state a couple of years ago. It   has now been discontinued. Honda also made a short-range BEV Clarity that was never sold in CT. The registration count for this model will gradually erode. Honda has announced a BEV SUV called the Prologue, schedule for a late 2023 introduction as a 2024 model.

Audi – 337 registrations

Kia – 260 Registrations

Chrysler – 256 Registrations

Chrysler introduced the Pacifica, the first PHEV Minivan, but never sold very many. They arguably still have the category to themselves.

Volkswagen – 250 Registrations

VW has moved on from the BEV e-Golf to its new platform and its introductory vehicle, the BEV ID.4 (there is a smaller ID.3 that has been a success in Europe). The ID.4 looks to be an improvement over past sales performance, but this was a supply constrained vehicle in 2021.

Mitsubishi – 91 Registrations

Mitsubishi is another manufacturer that was one of the earlier movers in terms of introducing EVs. There is the micro-compact BEV iMieve and the PHEV Outlander. The former never seemed like a serious entry. The latter was the first plug-in SUV available in the country but has never done more than minimal volume.

Mercedes-Benz – 75 Registrations

Mercedes is an example of a major manufacturer that prides itself on cutting-edge technology that has thus far failed to have even a minimal impact with electric vehicles. The company now has a new EVA2 platform and EQ branded vehicles with the EQS sedan to be available this year.

Polestar – 52 Registrations

Polestar manufactures 2 EVs, the Polestar 2, a BEV and the Polestar 1, a high-performance, expensive plug-in hybrid. The chart below may not appear to have a vehicle label, but if you look closely, you will see a “2” at the bottom. Only the Polestar 2 has any ownership in CT.

Polestar, owned by Geely, which also owns Volvo, initially opened only 3 dealerships, 2 in CA and one in NYC. It was their way of avoiding this state’s retrograde laws against direct sales. One of our Polestar-owning members advises that the car is appearing in at least some local Volvo dealerships. Volvo dealerships can be certified to repair them, as well.

These charts are not an exhaustive review of every make. There is quite a large long tail with 22 makes having fewer than 100 registered EVs.

Electric vehicles may have finally reached a tipping point in consumer interest. 7 of the 9 auto ads in the Super Bowl featured EVs. Gas prices are high, which in years past caused hybrid sales to spike. The main headwind seems to be the chip shortage. Bloomberg just released a report that in Europe, overall car sales in January declined year over year for the 7th straight month due to this reason.

The top photo, is a panoramic shot taken by Dawn Henry at our Green Wheels EV Parade and Showcase, showing some of the breadth of EVs on the market, though not all of them are rebate eligible.

CHEAPR Rebates by Dealership Updated

by Barry Kresch

At the EV Club, it is not uncommon for us to have consumers tell us about their dealership experiences as they buy an electric car. These are highly variable. Some dealerships make an effort to sell EVs. Others try to convince customers to buy an ICE vehicle instead. Some have vehicles that are charged and ready for test drives, others not so much. Oftentimes, the customer knows more about the vehicle than the salesperson.

Some dealers make the CHEAPR rebate the seamless experience it is intended to be. Others try and push it onto the consumer to varying degrees. (Just for the record, for a new vehicle CHEAPR incentive, the dealer is supposed to submit the paperwork and the rebate should appear as a credit on the invoice. This “cash on the hood” aspect is the best thing about the program design.)

The approach here is to use the number of rebates awarded as a proxy for EV-friendliness. It does have some limitations in that not every dealer sells CHEAPR eligible vehicles, which are BEVs and PHEVs that have an MSRP of no more than $42,000.  Some of the newer EVs that are showing early signs of success are either completely or mostly above the MSRP cap. Examples are the Ford Mustang Mach-E, Jeep Wrangler PHEV, and Volkswagen ID.4.

Freedom of Information Act request

The data below were obtained via a Freedom of Information Act request to the Department of Energy and Environmental Protection and are from 2021 only, intending to reflect the current state of the market. There were Tesla rebates in 2021, but these are not included in the tables because Tesla sells corporately, and it is safe to say it does want to sell EVs. If a dealership does not appear in any of the tables, it is because there were no rebates associated with it. Some dealerships sell more than one make. We had granular data as to which vehicle model received the rebate, so they a dealership may be assigned to multiple brands accordingly.

There is often a very large gap between the dealers with the strongest performance and most of the rest, as you will readily see.

Toyota

Toyota has been the recent king of CHEAPR rebates with two popular PHEVs that are eligible (RAV4 Prime and Prius Prime). A1 Toyota has been a consistently strong performer. At the other end of the spectrum, New Country Toyota, located in the city (Westport) with the highest per capita EV ownership in the state, awarded a paltry 5 incentives.

Hyundai

Hyundai has been more of a factor recently with its Kona and Ioniq lineup. Brandfon and Danbury Hyundai were the standouts.

Chevrolet

All of these rebates are for the Bolt. This benighted vehicle first had the launch of its refreshed model and sibling EUV delayed due to the pandemic. When it was finally introduced last year, it showed stronger results than its predecessor. Then a small number of battery fires, for which the cause proved maddeningly difficult to pin down, ultimately cascaded into a full-blown recall of every Bolt manufactured. According to a recent report in MotorBiscuit.com, which characterizes the Bolt as “doomed,” Chevy has shifted its hopes to its planned EUV version of the Equinox, along with an electrified Silverado. Both of these are 2024 model year vehicles, expected to be on sale in the fall of 2023.

Nissan

The Nissan rebates are for one of the first EVs introduced, namely the Leaf. This BEV has never been a particularly strong seller, which is reflected in generally low rebate counts. Still, there is a considerable spread with Harte leading the pack. Nissan is introducing a new BEV called the Ariya.

Kia

Kia makes both a BEV and PHEV version of its Niro and one dealership that stands above the others.

Honda

Honda pulled the plug on its Clarity PHEV, a vehicle that had received little corporate support over the past couple of years. It is one of the few PHEVs with an electric range of over 40 miles. Westport Honda, which had tremendous success with the Clarity, does not appear on the chart, presumably because what we’re seeing here is the selling off of residual inventory. Honda will not have a replacement electric vehicle until 2024 when it plans to release an EUV called the Prologue.

Subaru

Subaru has one plug-in, the PHEV CrossTrek, which is not a strong seller.

Mini

There is a Mini BEV and PHEV.

Chrysler

Chrysler has been selling the Pacifica PHEV minivan for some years. It has never been a big seller. The vehicle from the company’s sister brand, the Jeep Wrangler PHEV, is meeting with early success but is above the MSRP cap.

Volkswagen

VW has transitioned from its e-Golf to the ID.4, the first of its new generation of BEVs to be sold in this country. Most of the ID.4 trim levels exceed the MSRP cap of the CHEAPR program.

Ford

Ford has made major progress with its strategy of producing electric versions of its iconic Mustang and F150 nameplates. The EUV Mustang Mach-E is above the MSRP cap and is currently supply-constrained. The electric F150 Lightning has yet to begin deliveries. Only the base trim level will qualify for the rebate based on the pre-release announced pricing. Usually, early production focuses on the premium trim levels which are more profitable. The rebates here are for the Fusion Energi PHEV, a low-volume vehicle.

Mitsubishi

Mitsubishi has been selling its Outlander PHEV sport utility vehicle. Reportedly, a success story abroad, it never found much traction here.

CHEAPR Quietly Finishes a Quiet Year

We can begin with the good news: 2021 was an improvement over 2020, though that is a low bar. Otherwise, meh.

There were 90 rebates awarded and $110,250 expended in December. The annual totals are 1390 rebates and $1,588,000, so another year in which the program did not spend its budget. With funds rolling over, that should mean a war chest of over $6 million for 2022. (The comparable annual totals for 2020 are 675 rebates and $723,500.)

The program also continues its recent trend of being dominated by PHEVs with the Toyota RAV4 Prime leading the way. 62 of 90 rebates in December were PHEV.

This is the distribution of models for the full year. The Model 3 Standard Range Plus was eligible before the price increase and the Model Y Standard Range was eligible briefly before Tesla halted production. As the year progressed, deliveries of the RAV4 Prime ramped and it correlated with a decline in Prius Prime deliveries. The RAV4 is likely to be a bigger part of 2022.

There appears to have been one Rebate+ incentive given in December.

This program has been in a trough for quite some time, and as we’ve written before, the next chance to approve changes will be at the March board meeting on March 16th, 3:00 – 5:00 PM. Unfortunately, their format is for public comments to occur at the end of the meeting. So they are essentially noted for the record and not used as input, something else that needs to be reconsidered.

Post by Barry Kresch

Tesla Remains Leading EV Make by a Large Margin In New DMV Data

The new data, taking us through the end of 2021 have arrived from the DMV. It will take a little time for me to update the dashboard, but here are some top line tidbits.

There are 21,392 total EVs registered in CT as noted on the DMV website. The definition of EV includes battery electric vehicles (BEV), plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEV), fuel cell (FCEV), and battery electric motorcycles (BEMC). This definition follows what was included in the MultiState Zero Emission Vehicle Action Plan Memorandum of Understanding that was signed a few years ago. For some reason, in the detail files provided to me, the total is 5 fewer EVs at 21,387.

Fuel Type

BEVs remain the dominant fuel type.

These are the top EV makes. Tesla remains dominant by a mile.

The gap is even wider among BEVs

Within Tesla, the individual model numbers are:

• Model 3 – 4268
• Model Y – 2278
• Model S – 1694
• Model X – 692
• Roadster – 12 (Can’t overlook these.)

It is no surprise that the Model 3 enjoys a wide lead since the Model Y is a newer entrant. The Model Y is reportedly outselling the Model 3, but in the most recent 6 months, there were a higher number of 3s than Ys entering the file (1032 vs. 955). The guess here is that Y deliveries are more backlogged and this will change after the Austin plant revs up.

These are the top 10 cities ranked by the number of registered EVs.

Recovery Induced Rebound in EV Sales

After a truly dismal, pandemic-influenced 2020, where EV registrations increased by an anemic 18.2%, there has been a rebound in 2021 to an increase of 54.9%. CT now has 21,382 EVs, up from 13,800 one year ago. Of course, the pandemic is still with us, but the brief, severe recession is over. Demand has been sharply stronger. If anything, the current numbers are supply constrained.

Newly Registered Vehicles

Keep in mind these are net registration numbers and that there is always turnover in the fleet. If we look at the number of new EVs registered in 2021 vs 2020, the trend is steeper with a 121% increase.

There was an administrative extension of registrations in 2020 that may have caused the Jan ’21 number to be somewhat overstated.

This increased rate of growth is good news, but on a more cautionary note, it puts the state at only 4.3% of the way toward its 2030 goal of 500,000 registered EVs.

The underlying detail of these numbers, which allows us to chart fuel type, make, model, city, etc. is not yet available. We expect it within the next couple of weeks. Nationally, the big sellers have been the Tesla Model Y and 3, Mustang Mach-E, VW ID.4, and Toyota RAV4 Prime. There were several important introductions that happened too late in the year to have much of an impact, such as the Hyundai Ioniq 5, Mercedes-Benz EQS, GMC Hummer, and Rivian R1T and R1S. Of course, GM suffered a serious blow with its large recall and manufacturing interruption of its Bolt and Bolt EUV. The Honda Clarity PHEV ceased to be produced in 2021, though there is reportedly some dealer stock around.

This is the last post of the year for this blog and we wish all of our readers a happy and safe 2022! We hope to kick off our 2022 reporting on all things EV in CT with details of the final EV Rate Design incentives for chargers and charging to be offered through the utilities. The program is slated to go into effect in a few days, but we have not yet seen the final documents.

Soft November 2021 Rebate Level Led By Toyota

Our state EV purchase incentive program has its slowest month of the year in November with only 69 rebates awarded. The pattern of recent months continued.

The Toyota RAV4 Prime is by far the dominant model with 42 of the 69 rebates, or 61%. The next highest model is the Hyundai Kona Electric with 9. The Prius Prime, which had been the most rebated model prior to the ascendance of the RAV4 barely registered with only 4 rebates. Toyota is no doubt expending a lot of effort to understand why the Prius has fallen off so. It seems that consumers looking for fuel efficiency are gravitating toward a model that can do more, not to mention have more electric range.

There were no Tesla rebates as the base trim level Model 3 no longer qualifies due to a price increase. There were no Bolt rebates as GM pushes its way through its massive recall. Perhaps by February, we’ll begin to see new Bolt sales.

Driven by the RAV4, PHEV rebates accounted for 49 of the 69 rebates.

The Rebate+ incentives continue to be sparse with 2 rebates for used vehicles going to a Nissan Leaf and a Kia Soul.

Looking in the Rearview Camera Back Over a Busy 2021

As the year winds to a close, we take this opportunity to give our sincere thanks to all who have joined us for our meetings, events, advocacy, and information efforts. We look forward to seeing you in 2022!

Legislation

2021 was a disappointing year for climate legislation with our top priorities of direct sales, TCI, and adoption of the California emission standards for medium and heavy-duty vehicles not making it through the legislature.

The EV Club worked with the other members of the CT EV Coalition on these efforts but the Club was the tip of the spear on direct sales. We wrote blog posts and op-eds such as here (Hartford Courant)and here (CT Mirror). We called, emailed and met with legislators and gave testimony in support of SB 127, a bill we call EV Freedom. Our social media team did an outstanding job promoting direct sales and debunking bad PR meant to sow confusion and doubt about direct sales. Club member Will Cross – also Communications Director for Tesla Owners Club of Connecticut – built a platform, evfreedomct.com, to educate and inform the public about the bill, allow readers to show support by signing a petition and using social media to reach legislators and share excellent EV footage debunking many of the myths being advanced about direct sales.

The EV Freedom Bill made it out of the Transportation Committee but did not get called for a vote in the Senate. We were told that we were 1 vote shy. The bill will be reintroduced by Senator Haskell in 2022.

We held a well-attended press conference, as seen in these photos, with state officials, environmental organizations, labor, and others speaking.

We had support from Tesla and Lucid and were graced by the presence of a Model Y and the Lucid Air. Also, Rivian brought a pre-production R1T to Hartford and gave rides to legislators, followed by a small reception for club-members in New Haven. This was the vehicle’s first appearance in the state.

We thank the bill sponsors, Senator Haskell and Representative Steinberg, our friends at the CT Tesla Owners Club, and all of our members and others who reached out to their representatives, wrote an op-ed, or gave testimony before the legislature.

The only way this bill will pass is if constituents keep the pressure on. 2022 is an election year and it is the time to make our voices heard. We will be asking everyone to reach out again. Each year starts anew. If you have contacted your representatives in the past, memory is fleeting; it is important to do so again. Our state’s ability to meet its EV and emission reduction goals depends on it, not to mention that it has overwhelming consumer support. We will be communicating more specifics about the policy agenda for 2022 as they become available.

The footprint of the club continues to expand. We have now become a go-to source for press when comments about EV-related news are sought, including a recent, not as yet published article from CNN.com. The EV Club has also been invited to sit on the policy committee of the (national) Electric Vehicle Association (formerly the Electric Auto Association) even though we are not a chapter. The EVA formally endorses direct sales and will be another resource for us.

Events

• The EV Club again partnered with Sustainable Fairfield to stage an EV Parade from Westport to Fairfield for National Drive Electric Week (NDEW). This year it was followed by an EV showcase at the parade terminus with speakers.
• We supported as best we could other NDEW events held around the state, such as a successful event at Central Connecticut State University in New Britain.
• We were pleased to again support the Electric Car Guest Drive folks at their ride and drive event in Montgomery, NY.

Speaking Engagements

• AIACT – All electric home and BEVs webinar for architects
• Sustainable Essex – Deep dive into EV charging
• Route 7 EV Corridor dedication

• Municipal Police EV Adoption Workshop
• West Hartford Environment Committee
• Sustainable Weston
• Sierra Club Hartford
• Save the Sound Legislative Panel
• Webinar (Please subscribe to our YouTube Channel!) – How to Save on an EV and Get Free Charging

(We will be updating our incentive content. There is a lot of news on the near-term horizon with the PURA/utility incentives about to be finalized, and the possibility of major changes to the federal purchase incentive in the Build Back Better bill.)

Data

• Two updates to the EV Dashboard with more charts added.
• Track of CHEAPR performance, which continues to under-perform (that means allocated funds are underspent)
• Financial Analysis of Westport Police Model 3 patrol car, along with modeling out the financial implications for fleet adoption.

Select Meeting Speakers

• Marissa Gillett, Chair of Public Utilities Regulatory Authority, spoke about the upcoming EV Rate Design.
• Congressman Himes – A look forward to climate legislation
• Citizens Climate Lobby – Dr. Roger Kuhns discussed a proposal for a carbon tax with dividend.
• Stephen Wagner of South Windsor Planning and Zoning discussed using zoning regulations to improve charging access
• Kim Pacquette, early Tesla FSD beta tester spoke early in the year, followed by a recent panel of local drivers who have the received the recent upgrade

Westport Fire Department

EV Club Members loaned their vehicles for training so first responders can learn how to handle the cables and where to cut if necessary. We have had another request, this one from the Bethel Fire Department. We are waiting on a firm date before asking for volunteers. All that is involved is leaving the vehicle for a few hours so they can look at the wiring.

Club members participated in a fund-raiser to help Louisiana residents after the hurricanes. It was a grassroots effort driven by Tesla owners and coordinated with local LA resident, Clean Technica journalist, Johnna Crider.

Finally, this post is being composed on giving Tuesday, though it most likely will not make it live until Wednesday (yep, that’s what happened). The EV Club does not take donations, but several of our esteemed partners on the EV Coalition would be happy for any largess, for example, Save the Sound, The Sierra Club, Acadia Center, League of Conservation Voters, Electric Vehicle Association. If you are considering further giving options this year, please consider them.

Please scroll to the bottom of the home page to fill out the form to join the club (free) and sign up for our email blasts inviting you to our virtual meetings and events.

CHEAPR Reporting for September 2021

The top-line CHEAPR stats for September have been released. With 124 rebates, the pattern of recent months continues with more rebates than one year ago when the economy was struggling, but much lower than the corresponding month in 2019 when the old MSRP cap was in place.

The way the reporting works, any of the income-limited Rebate+ incentives are reported as a separate row of data. The count that is published on the CHEAPR website is that of rebates. There was one of the Plus incentives awarded in September, so the 124 rebates represent 123 vehicles. The Plus rebate was for a new vehicle. There has yet to be a rebate awarded for a used EV.

The program has increasingly been shifting toward a predominantly PHEV program. This continues in September with PHEVs representing 81 of the 124 rebates.

Toyota appears to have a big success on its hands with the RAV4 Prime, a PHEV version of its popular SUV. It was by far the most rebated vehicle with 67 rebates accounting for 54% of all rebates. There were 30 Tesla Model 3 rebates. All other models accounted for fewer than 10 rebates. Since RAV4 Prime deliveries have ramped, it seems to have cannibalized sales of the Prius Prime.

The PHEV shift was exacerbated by the travails affecting the Chevy Bolt. The Bolt and the new Bolt EUV had only one rebate each. It will take GM a little time to dig itself out of this hole and recover from any reputational damage. Manufacturing of the Bolt has resumed, but club-member Bolt owners are still waiting for the disposition of their vehicles, whether it is a repair or a buy-out.

Going forward, the most rebated BEV, the Tesla Model 3 SR+, will start to fall out of the data fairly soon as the price was raised and it is now above the MSRP cap. Many of the newer BEVs, such as the Mustang Mach-E, are also above the cap. The chart below shows rebates by vehicle.

Reporting Resumes After A Hiatus

This blog follows the state EV purchase incentive program, CHEAPR. It’s an important part of the state’s effort to support EV adoption. The surveys from rebate recipients indicate it is an important factor in deciding to drive electric, and we have no reason to doubt those findings. However, the program’s performance has been disappointing for close to two years now.

Early this year, the CHEAPR board approved major changes to the program. The amount of the incentives were raised on a temporary basis (through the remainder of 2021, funds permitting). Incentives for income-limited individuals were added in the form of a supplemental incentive for new vehicles as well as an incentive for used EVs. There was also a welcome “backdoor” move to permit consumers to use the incentive 2 more times. I say “backdoor” because it was never discussed at a board meeting and was not included in any of the proposals that the board voted on. It just happened.

The program changes took effect on June 7th. We now have reporting through August 31st. The reporting does not yet provide for the new Rebate+ incentives. However, it was revealed at the board meeting that over the 12 weeks since the start of the new program, there was only 1 income-limited rebate awarded. This was an “Rebate+ New” rebate, the supplemental rebate for a new EV. The most convincing reason offered for this was that the public assistance programs that qualify an individual’s eligibility apply to people who simply don’t have enough income. It was suggested that the program should be recalibrate, possibly with an income-based qualifier. The convenience (easier to document) of the public assistance formulation may just not hit the right target.

The other proposed explanation is that the initial birthing pains plus insufficient outreach and a lack of collaterals has brought us to this place. DEEP resisted making any changes until the end of the year review. 1 rebate in 12 weeks sounds like a convincing data point to us.

Another “backdoor” issue, in that as with the extra opportunities to use the rebate, it was never discussed but just appeared, is the restriction on vehicle models for used rebates. If there is already the public assistance qualifier in place, we don’t see the point of further restrictions. The eligible models for the regular CHEAPR have pretty much been ported over to the used program with the additional restriction that no vehicle manufactured before the inception of CHEAPR can qualify. A very low income population is likely going to buy an older car with high mileage.

Over the past three months, the rebate levels have not quite recovered to where they were two years ago (429 vs. 467). Rebate numbers declined dramatically last year in the teeth of the pandemic. (The number from 2 years ago is with the previous higher MSRP cap in place.)

70% of the rebates over the past 3 months have been for PHEVs. To see the program turn so heavily into a PHEV rebate program is distressing but not surprising. Many of the popular BEVs, especially those with larger battery packs, are more than the $42K limit. The reason for this trend is very obvious: The Toyota RAV4 Prime. It accounted for 58 of 130 rebates and seems to be cannibalizing the Prius Prime to some degree. We will watch it over the next few months.  The new Jeep Wrangler PHEV is above the $42K cap. The Chevy Bolt, which had been doing better since it was refreshed this year, had a big drop, expected given the travails of the fires and the extensive recall.

The board meetings are now scheduled on a quarterly basis, so new developments are not likely forthcoming for some time. The public audience was unusually vocal this meeting. In particular, there were many requests for the MSRP cap to be raised at least back to where it used to be ($50K). We will update with more complete reporting when available.

Fairfield County is Home to 41% of EVs

7023 of 17,217 EVs in the state are registered in Fairfield County.

The map at the top of the post shows the distribution of EVs across cities. The larger the bubble the greater the number of EVs, with the top cities being Greenwich, Stamford, Westport, Fairfield, Norwalk, West Hartford, and New Canaan. These ranks don’t change that quickly but Norwalk has overtaken West Hartford. There is nowhere near enough room to display all cities in the static screenshot of the recent trend below. In the interactive dashboard, there is both a slider and a slicer to help navigate the larger charts.

Adjusting for population reveals a different rank with mostly smaller towns in Fairfield County dominating: Westport, Weston, New Canaan, Greenwich, Woodbridge, Darien, and Wilton.

The two charts below show EVs by make by city. These do not come directly from the DMV because the DMV separates the geo from the other information. I have created my own estimates based on the available data. Again, the screenshot is not large enough to display all cities and all of the makes in the legend. The dominant orange color is Tesla. Below the bar chart is the same data in map form with bubbles sized to overall EVs and the wedges representing each make. Again, it looks better in the dashboard which has more visual flexibility.

If anyone has any questions about a particular city, please email EVClubCT@gmail.com.