Very Few Manufacturers Account for the Vast Majority of EVs on the Road

While the growth of the number of EVs registered in the state of CT was a reasonably robust 35% from 2017 to 2018, there are actually very few manufacturers that account for most of them. These data were compiled as part of the Electric Vehicle Club of CT’s annual update of data obtained via a Freedom of Information Act request of the Department of Motor Vehicles.

As illustrated by the chart below, only 3 manufacturers, Tesla, Chevrolet, and Toyota, account for 69% of all EVs registered in the state.

Plugins Growth

Tesla is the largest with 26%, followed by Chevrolet with 24%, and Toyota with 19%. Recent trends only accelerated that. The growth from 2017 to 2018 was fueled by the same 3 companies which accounted for 73% of year on year growth. If one were to add Nissan, that grows to 80%.

The growth of Chevrolet was accelerated by the introduction of the BEV Bolt, giving Chevrolet two of the top-selling EVs including the PHEV Volt.

Toyota has met with success with its Prius Prime PHEV and that catapulted them from nowhere to third among all manufacturers in vehicles registered.

The big X factor is the Tesla Model 3. When this data set was generated in early March, very few had been delivered to customers in the state. Tesla stated that they have several thousand Model 3 reservations in CT as of early this year. And in August, the Model 3 alone represented roughly half of all plug-in sales nationally according to Inside EVs. We have seen many club members take delivery of this vehicle and fully expect that it will completely upend the current picture.

Let us remind ourselves that as of this writing Tesla is still not allowed to open stores in CT. Many manufacturers have announced ambitious EV plans. We hope they follow through. Our club is brand agnostic, but we support Tesla coming into the state. There is expected to be another attempt pass the necessary legislation to enable it when the next legislative session commences, and we ask our members and friends to reach out to their legislators to let them know there is a deep base of support for this.

EV Club Board Member Dawn Henry will present the Climate Reality Presentation (a.k.a. the Al Gore presentation) at the Westport Senior Center on Thursday, September 20.

Dawn is a graduate of the Climate Reality Leadership Training, and the presentation will include actionable steps that anyone can take to reduce our carbon footprint. This will be followed by a short presentation on EV basics by Club Board Member Barry Kresch, and an EV showcase, courtesy of the car club. Here are the particulars:

Date: Thursday, September 20

Time: 4:00 – 5:00PM – Climate Reality Presentation

5:00 – 5:15PM – EV Basics

5:15 – 6:00PM – EV Showcase

Location: Westport Senior Center, 21 Imperial Avenue, Westport, CT

Registration: The event is free but registration is required. Anyone interested in attending, please contact WestportEVClub@gmail.com

The club supports various EV showcase events as they have been a proven way to spread the word about EVs.

Attendees from the general public who are interested in EVs can have a conversation with an owner about their real-life experience owning a plug-in vehicle and not be in a pressured sales environment. It is ideal for someone who is anywhere from early in the learning curve to the point where they may be focusing on the fine points between a couple of vehicles they have narrowed their search to as they get close to making a purchase decision. Customer experiences at dealerships (excluding Tesla) can vary wildly, with some dealerships embracing EVs and having a knowledgeable staff to others which can be indifferent or hostile. This is a great way to arm oneself with important knowledge. These events are also a great way to interact with media or politicians who are often present.

Our experience as EV-owners at numerous events of this nature is that most people still don’t know much about EVs or the types of models available.

WE SEEK EV-OWNER CLUB MEMBERS to bring their EVs to one or more of these events. Please email WestportEVClub@gmail.com if you are interested in participating. We will follow up with details.

AVANGRID COMPANY FAIR

Expected attendance ~400. This is a fair for Avangrid employees. Avangrid has recently been buying Chevy Bolts to use for their corporate fleet. The CEO will give a short talk on the advantages of EVs from a corporate perspective.

TIME/LOCATION – Tuesday, August 7, 11:30 AM – 2 PM. The event will be held at Avangrid HQ at 180 Marsh Hill Road, Orange, CT.

There is a barbecue and attendees will be served lunch. This is a short lead time. RSVP by Friday, August 3 if interested.

NATIONAL DRIVE ELECTRIC WEEK

The club is participating in the local NDEW event in Fairfield. This is a combo EV Showcase and Ride and Drives. There is a mix of EV owners as well as dealers who participate. The Ride and Drives are only done by the dealers. There will also be speakers. Turnout at these events has been good, both from the perspective of EV owners and spectators. EV owners can come for just a part of it. Those interested, please register here

TIME/LOCATION – Saturday, September 8, 10 AM – 2 PM. Fairfield Warde High School (under the new solar carports), 755 Melville Avenue, Fairfield, CT

CLIMATE REALITY PRESENTATION + EV EVENT

Club board member Dawn Henry will be giving the latest iteration of the Climate Reality Presentation (the Al Gore slide show). She is a certified presenter. Following the CR presentation, there will be a talk about EV basics followed by an EV showcase.

TIME/LOCATION – Thursday, September 20, 4:30 PM – 7 PM. Westport Senior Center, 21 Imperial Avenue, Westport, CT

SUSTAINABLE LIVING EXPO

Expected attendance ~1000. There is an EV showcase that is held in conjunction with this event.

TIME/LOCATION – Saturday, October 13, 12 PM – 2 PM. Stepping Stones Museum, Norwalk, CT.

Leadership Transition

Club founder, Leo Cirino, has stepped down as club president. Leo was widely recognized for his tireless and effective advocacy for clean transportation and received multiple awards from area organizations. Leo will be the first club President Emeritus and was presented with a plaque during the club news conference of April 21. The new club president is Bruce Becker. ​

Leo, who is a forward-thinker when it comes to clean transportation and vehicle electrification, founded the club in 2009, the first EV club in Connecticut. During his tenure, the club worked on numerous projects to showcase EVs, educate the public, and develop charging facilities. It could be why Westport has the highest EVs per capita of any town in the state.

Updated EV Dashboard

The EV Interactive Dashboard is now updated. There are now 2 years of data represented in the model: February 2018 and March 2018. The data are a snapshot from these two points in time.

This comes to us from the CT Department of Motor Vehicles. Club President Bruce Becker filed a Freedom of Information Act to obtain it. The file includes every vehicle registered in the state of Connecticut.

A few words about the dataset.

There is no personal information. The fields that are given to us are make, model, model year, city, and fuel type. There is no plug-in hybrid (PHEV) fuel type in the file. We build that from the vehicle model. We then overlay census data that allows us to consolidate cities to counties, incorporate median household income by city, and calculate per capita stats.

To reinforce a couple of key points, the data in the file are not vehicle sales; it is the current vehicle fleet in the state of CT. It doesn’t matter if someone owns, leases, bought new or used. The year is the model year of the registered vehicle and should not be interpreted to be sales by year.

The model is interactive. The checkboxes are “slicers.” Checking a box will cross-filter all of the charts on that page. Similarly, clicking into a chart element will also cross-filter. You can click on more than one check box. If you are on a Mac, depress the command key while clicking. For PC, use the CTRL key. Hovering over a chart element will cause the value to display.

This model has multiple pages. The page bar is at the bottom of the screen.

Click here to spawn a web browser version of the dashboard

The browser version is a little balky, but such is life. If anyone has a PBI subscription and wants to see a PBI.com dash, send an email to WestportEVClub@gmail.com.

Look to upcoming posts to see our take on the highlights from the data set.

A ribbon-cutting for the largest cluster of charging stations in Connecticut will be hosted by the Electric Vehicle Club of Connecticut, Connecticut Fund for the Environment, and the Connecticut Electric Vehicle Coalition on June 13, 2018, at 5:00 PM in Hartford. This event is open to the general public.

777 Main Street in Hartford is a LEED Certified Platinum building with 285 apartments and 40,000 square feet of commercial space. The development includes a total of 29 EV chargers: six Tesla superchargers, eight Tesla destination chargers, eight Clipper Creek level 2 chargers, and six level 2 and one level 3 DC SAE combo ChargePoint chargers.

A reception and panel discussion of EV policy in the Penthouse of 777 Main will follow, from 5:30 to 7:00 PM. Moderator and panelists:

• Claire Coleman – Energy and Environment Attorney at CT Fund for the Environment
• Matt Macunas – Legislative Liaison and EV Policy Specialist at CT Green Bank
• Kerri Enright Kato – Director of DEEP’s Office of Climate Change
• Emily Lewis – Policy Analyst at The Acadia Center

Subject to interest and time, an EV “ride and drive” will be available. An array of new electric vehicles are expected, including BMW, Nissan, Chevrolet, Tesla, and Honda.

About 777 Main

777 Main was designed and developed by Becker and Becker. Principal Bruce Becker, also the president of the Electric Vehicle Club of CT, stated, “80% of EV charging is done at home. Residents of apartments and condos typically have less access to charging, which is a significant barrier to ownership for a lot of people, especially in cities. The ambitious emission-reduction goals set by the state underscore the importance of increasing the number of EVs from the 6,264 registered as of March. This project in Hartford, CT serves as an example for adding charging features in housing developments as an impetus to accelerate EV adoption.”

35% Increase in 2017

The number of plug-in vehicles registered in CT has grown by 35.1% in a comparison of 2 data points one year apart.

The Westport Electric Car Club received an updated vehicle ownership file from the CT Department of Motor Vehicles which was obtained via a Freedom of Information Act request. This enables us to make comparisons with a similar file acquired 1 year ago. These files contain no personal data, just make, model, model year, and city.

This translates to 6264 vehicles this year compared to 4636 the prior year. The term EV includes both battery electric vehicles (BEV) and plug-in hybrid vehicles (PHEV). EVs represent .28% of all vehicles registered in the state this year, up from .20% last year. EV sales have been growing by double digit percentage increases for several years now, but when looking at a number like .28% of all vehicles, the context is that these recently manufactured EVs are in a file that contains all of the existing fleet in the state.

Keep in mind that these data points are static snapshots of vehicles registered. It is not the same as new car sales. It would include the purchase of used vehicles and it would not include vehicles that were sold or had a lease expiry. Broadly speaking, since they aren’t the same numbers, this 35% increase compares with a 26% increase in the sales of new EVs nationally in 2017 vs. 2016. As this post is being written the March 2018 EV sales figures are being released. Inside EVs is reporting a record month, with EV sales up 43% compared to March 2017.

Makes

The most widely represented EV make in CT remains Tesla with 1617 vehicles, followed by Chevrolet with 1504 and Toyota with 1191.

Cities

With respect to cities, Greenwich remains the city with the most EVs at 511. Westport is third with 266, though it has the highest per capita incidence of EVs at 1%, roughly 3.5 times the incidence of the state as a whole.

One of the most frequent questions we got when we did our analysis last year was how many fuel-cell vehicles were in the file. The answer this year is the same as last year: NONE!

There were several new models represented this year, including the Honda Clarity PHEV, Chrysler Pacifica PHEV, and the Mini-Cooper PHEV.

Increases

The makes with the largest percentage increases among those with a major EV presence (arbitrarily defined as at least 300 units) are Chevrolet at 52.4%, Toyota at 51.9%, Nissan at 33.3%, and Tesla at 21.4%. The Chevy increase was driven by the introduction of the BEV Bolt. Toyota introduced the Prius Prime, the new version of its plug-in Prius which is selling much better than the previous model. Nissan is transitioning to the new Leaf.

The elephant in the room is, of course, the Tesla Model 3. Given that Tesla is the most widely represented EV brand in the state and given the fact that there is a backlog of unfilled reservations, if Tesla manages to wrangle its manufacturing bottleneck, it could change the complexion of the numbers. There were only 4 Model 3s included in this file. During recent testimony in Hartford, Tesla reported having over 3000 Model 3 reservations in the state. In Westport, Tesla represents 51% of all plug-ins and it accounts for 8.3% of all of the Teslas registered in the state. That projects out to something like 250-300 Model 3 reservations in Westport. In other words, if this is accurate, it represents a number roughly equal to all of the plug-ins currently registered in the town.

We won’t know for a while about the Model 3, but we will be following up with additional information from our analysis of the data and an update to our interactive dashboard. Stay tuned!

First Tesla Model 3 in CT

Westport Electric Car Club Member Bruce Becker is the recipient of the first Model 3 from Tesla to be delivered to Connecticut. As an existing (or should we say pre-existing) Tesla owner of a Model S, along with an early dive into the packed reservation queue, Becker was able to land his prize. The only way to have gotten it sooner would have been to be a Tesla employee. As of the end of January, Tesla had only delivered 3,647 units of the Model 3 with a backlog of over 400,000 non-binding reservations.

A gathering at the charging stations outside of Staples High School in Westport brought a number of onlookers and local officials. The timing is propitious as the CT State Legislature has just convened it’s “short session.” There will be another push to pass legislation that would allow Tesla to open stores in Connecticut, which is one of only a handful of states that do not permit this. As a result, CT residents have to travel to neighboring states to purchase, depriving CT of millions in lost tax revenues, not to mention the economic activity that would result from Tesla investing in facilities and hiring locally, and not to mention that Tesla manufacturers clean transportation vehicles in the USA.

The Westport Electric Car Club has started a petition to tell our legislators to support this legislation. It is easy to virtually support this effort. Just text “EV CT” to 52886.

Bruce Becker, Model 3 Owner. Yes, that’s a BMW i8 in the back/center (Photo: Barry Kresch for WECC)

Details

Becker described the Model 3 as providing an exceptional driving experience, smooth, quiet, responsive, more fun even than his Model S.

 Westport First Selectman Jim Marpe was checking out the goods. (Photo: Barry Kresch for WECC)

View of the trunk and panoramic glass roof. (Photo: Barry Kresch for WECC)

Here is the “frunk.” No engine = more storage. (Photo: Barry Kresch for WECC)

All of the controls are part of the screen. Otherwise, the dash is a clean laminated strip, partly visible here between the screen and the steering wheel. (Photo: Barry Kresch for WECC)

Please support our petition. The legislature is on a short timeline to act and now is the time to be heard.

The New Peak Oil

There was a documentary film called “Collapse,” which premiered at the Toronto International Film Festival in 2009 about a self-styled investigative journalist named Michael Ruppert who claims to have predicted the 2008 financial crisis. In this film, he purports to forecast a looming disaster caused by an insufficient supply of fossil fuels to support a growing world economy. “The mortal blow in human industrialized civilization will happen when oil prices spike and nobody can afford to buy that oil and everything will just shut down,” is how he characterized it.

Had that come to pass, it would certainly would have created some urgency to find alternatives. But that was then. Less than a decade later, we find ourselves awash in fracked oil and natural gas, and in the midst of a slow-burning (pun intended) climate crisis, where the political leadership at the Federal level in our own country, the largest country in terms of cumulative greenhouse gas emissions and the second largest in terms of current emissions, is more resistant to doing something about it than almost all other countries.

While Ruppert was wrong about “peak oil”, he made another comment that was more prescient with respect to the larger political dynamic: “It’s kind of sad because we as a species have become so disconnected from the Earth. We don’t have any real contact with the Earth. We don’t have any sense of its functions, its feeling, its seasons, its timings.”

If you would like more of a freak-out, albeit in a more soberly detailed, journalistic style, try reading The Sixth Extinction by Elizabeth Kolbert, who discusses (among other things) species adaptation in past cycles of climatic change and how this time is different. (It’s happening a lot faster, folks, too fast for evolution to keep up.)

Peak Oil and EVs

Where this fits with EVs, of course, is that transportation accounts for 40% of petroleum use globally. The meaning of the phrase “peak oil” has changed from meaning the scarcity of supply to the turning point in consumption level. The projected EV adoption rate is a big factor in determining when that occurs.

According to a survey of forecasts published by Bloomberg, the earliest this is likely to happen is shortly before 2030, as forecasted by Bank of America. The intersection point in terms of the cost curves of EVs and conventional vehicles is forecasted to be 2025. The point at which EV sales surpass ICE sales is forecasted to be 2038. Others, such as major petroleum exporters Saudi Arabia and Russia, forecast this peak oil point to be further out, more like 2050. 

The Landscape

One may be forgiven for feeling a sense of cognitive dissonance when looking at the landscape for EVs in the USA.

• We have not reached the tipping point with consumers purchasing plug-in vehicles.
• There is a Federal tax credit, flaws and all.
• Tax credit notwithstanding, the political environment at the Federal level is largely unfavorable to clean energy. Auto manufacturers have had success in persuading the current administration to back away from phase two of the Obama CAFÉ requirements.
• There is a mixed landscape across the states with some offering incentives and others that add a surcharge to EV registrations.
• Many dealers are reluctant to sell EVs. (This is a link to a 2015 NY Times articleabout this subject. This is a link to a more recent, candid, and thoughtful article by an employee at a Chevy dealership about the challenges of selling EVs, even when working for a dealer who is supportive.)
• EVs remain under-marketed.
• A recently reported study conducted by KPMGof 1000 auto industry executives reported negative sentiment for near/medium term EV prospects. To quote from Green Car Reports, “76% of executives see internal combustion engine vehicles as still more important than electric drivetrains for a very long time.” They felt the biggest hurdle is a lack of charging station infrastructure. (Strangely, they were more bullish on fuel-cell vehicles to break out, even though there is even less hydrogen infrastructure.)

And yet there have been numerous ambitious announcements by major legacy auto manufacturers.

• GM has announced the development of a modular EV platform that will be the basis for 20 or more vehicles. This flexible platform is intended to lower the cost substantially. They anticipate selling1MM EVs per year (globally) by 2026 (and “bury Tesla”).
• Ford announced an $11 billion investment in 40 plug-in vehicles by 2022.
• Volvo intends to phase out gasoline engines by 2024.
• Fiat/Chrysler announced the future of automobiles is electric. This by CEO Sergio Marchionne, the same person who several years ago asked customers not to by his Fiat 500e BEV.
• Volkswagen, in the wake of “dieselgate,” has announced a pivot to EVs and, as part of the settlement for the diesel emissions fraud, a $2 billion investment in charging infrastructure.

At least part of the reason for these plans is what is happening outside of the USA.

• The EV poster child is Norway, where 52% of new car sales are now EVs, and their goal is to phase out diesel and gasoline by 2025. They are using a panoply of carrots and sticks, including generous subsidies, to drive this result which they hope can be phased out over the next 10 years. And the price of gasoline is 15.86 krone per liter (Jan 2018), or about $7.65 per gallon (compared to $2.53 in the USA, per AAA).
• Paris plans to ban diesel by 2025 and phase out gasoline vehicles by 2030. Britain and France plan to ban the sale of gasoline and diesel vehicles country-wide by 2040.
• China has ordered the discontinuation of 553 vehicle models that are the most polluting.
• Japan now has more charging stations than gasoline stations.

Plug-in vehicle models are becoming more numerous. Electric propulsion is beginning to be incorporated into larger vehicles. The energy density in batteries is steadily improving. Prices are coming down to the point where, eventually, incentives won’t matter. The EVs on the market now have mostly been well-received, are fun to drive, and will only get better and more diverse.

While there are different forecasts about when EV sales will overtake those of internal combustion vehicles and when peak oil consumption will occur, nobody thinks it won’t happen. The Georgetown Climate Center held a webinar on February 13 regarding planning for charging infrastructure for an EV corridor in the Northeast. Just to excerpt one sentence with respect to combating carbon emissions, “Without electrification of the transportation sector, there is no clear path to meeting our goals.”

CHEAPR

States have been going their own way, whatever the direction of what may be happening Federally. Connecticut has been a consistent supporter of EV adoption and reduced emissions on a number of fronts. And with good reason, as the Department of Energy and Environmental Protection (DEEP) estimates that the transportation sector accounts for about 40% of emissions statewide.

CHEAPR, which stands for Connecticut Hydrogen and Electric Automobile Purchase Rebate, offers rebates to purchasers of plug-in or fuel-cell vehicles. The program began in May 2015. It was announced in November 2017 that another round of funding had been procured to replenish the pool, bringing the total funding since the program’s inception to $5,064,500. According to the CHEAPR website, 2,332 rebates have been issued since the program started, and the amount of funds remaining stands at $1,093,250 These numbers are as of January 11, 2018. (That website link can be used to access all details about CHEAPR.)

Unlike the Federal tax credit, CHEAPR is a rebate so it is of use to people who are not in a position to utilize a tax credit. Some dealers will do the paperwork and just deduct it from the invoice. Unlike the Federal program, there is a $60,000 cap on base MSRP for eligible vehicles. If you are aware of CHEAPR but haven’t checked lately, there were changes made in August 2017 with respect to which vehicles qualify for each level rebate. The maximum rebate was raised to $5,000 (for fuel-cell vehicles, which are expensive). Other rebate levels are $3,000, $2,000, and $500 based on car type and electric range.

There are 3 fuel-cell vehicles on the eligibility list. We’d like to ask our readers, has anyone seen any of them “in the wild” in CT?

Charging Infrastructure

Connecticut has supported charging stations as well as provided credits to municipalities to install charging stations through the Clean Energy Communities Program. In Westport, where town administrations have been supportive of the club’s efforts, there are 19 public charging stations that have been obtained in this way. They are located at the two Metro-North stations, the public library, Staples High School, and town hall. There are two other charging stations downtown that were installed by the Tri-Town Teachers Credit Union and Karl Chevrolet. Of these 21 charging stations, 17 are level 2 and 4 are level 1. In addition, there are other chargers in nearby towns as well as at certain rest stops on the expressways. The expressway chargers are level 3 fast chargers. And, of course, Tesla has built out its own proprietary charging network which spans the country.

CT is a member of the CARB consortium of states that follow the stricter California emissions requirements. CT is also one of the ZEV states, a subset of the CARB states, that mandate the sales of zero-emission vehicles.

Still No Direct Sales Bill

The other, more dubious, news is that CT remains a Tesla-free state (one of only 5 nationally, none in the Northeast), meaning that the company is not permitted to open stores in CT. In 2017, as in 2016, the “Tesla Bill” failed to make it to a vote in the legislature. Let’s keep in mind that the most widely-owned EV marque in CT is Tesla, but customers are forced to either travel out of state or transact online. It has been reported that the state is losing $15 million per year in sales tax revenue plus the revenue from the investment in facilities and employment. The bill is up for consideration again in this year’s “short session.” Contact your state legislators and tell them you support this bill.

So why do we need an “act of Congress,” so to speak, for Tesla to be able to do business here? It’s all about the dealer franchise laws. These laws were created many decades ago and the purpose was to protect dealerships (which are independently owned businesses) from predatory competition from the manufacturers they represent. There was never any Tesla-type scenario envisioned at the time these laws were written. And given the decidedly mixed reception that the dealer networks of the legacy manufacturers have given EVs, along with the fact that close to 99% of new car sales are still of the internal combustion variety, it is understandable why Tesla has a business model focused on direct sales.

The proposed compromise that was unsuccessful in CT would have carved out a narrow exception to the franchise laws that would fit Tesla (and nobody else, at least not at present. For a more detailed explanation of the bill, see our earlier blog post discussing it.) But Tesla has had some success in other states in arguing that the franchise laws simply don’t apply. Just this month, according to the Providence Journal, DMV lawyers in Rhode Island concluded that franchise laws only apply to manufacturers with franchisees. Residents of Eastern CT can pay a visit to the Tesla showroom opening in Warwick, RI later this year.

Model 3

Some people have asked us if a Tesla Model 3 is eligible for the rebate since it is not sold in the state. It is. (The only thing to watch out for with respect to the Model 3, where there is currently a lengthy lag from reservation to delivery, is that the funds don’t get applied until there is a VIN number which doesn’t happen until the vehicle is in production. CHEAPR funds have been replenished several times to this point, but the availability is not guaranteed indefinitely.)

For folks interested in supporting Tesla coming to CT, the company has set up a Facebook

page and a website has been set up by a local group of Tesla owners. Also, please sign our online petition by texting “EV CT” to 52886.