The used car market, in general, is more than double that for new vehicles. That does not appear to be the case for EVs to this point.

CHEAPR Likely to Implement Used EV Incentive in 2021

CHEAPR, the CT state EV purchase incentive program, is considering offering incentives for purchases of used EVs. This incentive would be limited to lower and middle-income individuals/families. There are a number of changes being considered by CHEAPR, but with respect to used EVs, the legislature specifically authorized this incentive, the proposal was well received by the board, and the public comments were favorable. It seems a lock to happen, though there are below the line development tasks that will cause it to not be available until next year.

What is the State of the Used EV Market

We don’t have access to the data that would enable us to definitively answer this. But we have some information that may be useful for drawing inferences.

During the CHEAPR board meeting of July 17th, there was a presentation by the auto-dealership representatives on the board. They stated that there are few used EVs in the marketplace and the prices were low, creating an unvirtuous circle. They support the incentive and think that that it promises to sufficiently stimulate consumer demand so that dealers will be willing to bid more aggressively at auctions to augment the supply in the state.

The used EV incentive will differ from the new car incentive in that it will also apply to independent used car dealers. Used car dealers do not have to be affiliated with a manufacturer. A Google search for “used EVs for sale in CT” brought up a results page consisting of only independent dealers, mainly large ones like Carvana, Iseecars, and CarGurus. Those companies had both paid and organic listings on this first page of the search results. A search for “used Teslas for sale” brought up a largely similar set of sites, except that Tesla itself appeared, as it is in the business of retailing its own used vehicles. There is another company specializing in used Teslas called OnlyUsedTesla.com.

I suspect that the board members who represent the dealerships are not factoring Tesla into their thinking. For them, EVs are still a niche product and many of the non-Tesla EVs in the used marketplace are the first generation (read: low range) models. (We may be at a point where this is beginning to change as later model EVs are now coming off-lease.) And the dealers, based on the search results and their own words, aren’t making a serious effort to source and sell them. The fact that the independents are spending money on sponsored links indicates that there is at least a minimally viable business. Search is highly targeted and can yield a positive return on a small campaign.

Quantify Used EVs from the DMV File

To get some kind of quantification of used EVs relative to new, I went back to the file we recently got from the DMV of all registered EVs in the state as of July 1, just to get an idea of what was entering the market. My proxy for used EVs was vehicles added to the file between January and July with a model year earlier than 2019. This is a rough measure and is reflected in the chart at the top of the post. Each bar represents vehicles added to the file in the first half of the year sorted by make, with the orange portion being those that are categorized as used by our proxy measure. 22% of the EVs added to the file could be characterized as used based on this definition. 47% of the vehicles added are Tesla, but only 10% of those fit this definition of used.

• This, coupled with the information from the dealers, indicates a small used EV market at this point.
• Even though it is small, there is a used EV business.
• The fact that there is no franchise requirement begs the question of whether Tesla could sell used EVs in Milford (or elsewhere in the state) using the same rationale that led to their being able to lease. In the case of new vehicle leasing, customers still have to go out of state to pick up the vehicle. Would that be a requirement if they could sell used?
• The EV Club is supportive of a used CHEAPR EV incentive, but based on this information, along with the LMI restriction, we don’t expect that it will be disbursing large sums in 2021.
• It is important, as used and possibly other incentives, are incorporated into CHEAPR, that the stats page be updated to track them separately.

The CSE, DEEP’s consultant for CHEAPR, has been sent back to model new scenarios and we will see what they forecast.

Turnover Analysis of EV Makes Driving Adoption

When we build our semi-annual EV dashboard with data sourced from the DMV, we, of course, look at trends by vehicle make. The analysis in this post is intended to give a more focused look at the recent impact of the various EV makes by isolating the vehicles that departed between January and July 2020 and comparing that turnover to the new vehicles added in the most recent July file.

The chart above shows that Tesla has low turnover, coupled with a high number of new vehicles added. That is not a surprising result. When analyzing EV adoption data, the answer to almost every question is “Tesla.” But the impact is seen more starkly in this view compared to the “trends by make” or “waterfall” charts in the dashboard. Since the outsized presence of Tesla tends to overwhelm everything else, it makes it hard to visualize any movement that may exist elsewhere. The answer: show the data without Tesla.

What pops on this chart is the contribution increase from Hyundai. This may be an early signal of a serious EV push, followed this past week by the announcement that Hyundai is spinning off its Ioniq marque into a dedicated EV sub-brand (like Volvo with Polestar) and plans 3 new EV model introductions over the next several years, beginning with a mid-sized crossover in 2021.

Toyota, which has occupied a distant number 2 position over the past couple of years with its Prius Prime PHEV, showed a smaller increase on a lower base.

Ford is going in the opposite direction, with more EV turnover than additions. They have an eagerly anticipated launch in 2021 of the Mach-E, a crossover that bears the iconic Mustang logo.

Audi, Land Rover, and Subaru also spiked, but the numbers were low. Audi showed 9 departures and 34 adds for its new e-Tron. Land Rover, just entering the plug-in world (and separate from the Jaguar iPace), went from having 0 EVs to 16. Subaru had one departure and 19 adds.

37 CHEAPR rebates in June

This tepid number was only slightly higher than the 27 in May, closing the quarter with a soft 81 rebates total and 275 for the first half of the year. This 275 compares to 818 during the first half of 2019.

Partly, this was due to the recession, but a lot of it has to do with the changes made to the program in October 2019, when the price cap for vehicle eligibility was lowered from $50K to $42K. You can see in the graph that the numbers immediately tanked in November and have stayed low.

CSE Proposal for CHEAPR Program Revisions

The CHEAPR board met on July 17th to entertain proposed program changes submitted by their consultant, the Center for Sustainable Energy (CSE). These proposed changes were a decidedly mixed bag. DEEP is accepting public comments until August 12th. Email comments to the at deep.mobilesources@ct.gov

These are our positions:

Dealership Data Request

The club regularly gets requests for dealer recommendations. Usually, this follows a poor dealership experience. We have an informal list of some dealers that have been recommended by members, but it is not complete and doesn’t cover the whole state.

So we would like to let the data do the talking to the extent it can. Our objective is to publish a list of top dealers for each brand and we hope to have representation across the state.

We made the request to CHEAPR, which is run by the Center for Sustainable Energy (CSE), on June 23. On July 7, they advised that they were working on it. We are still waiting as of this writing on July 26th. Hopefully, we will receive it soon.

We will be using rebates is a proxy for sales and it is imperfect. When we publish the data, we will describe in detail what it represents and its limitations. We have asked for granular data. We will cut and sort the data to make it as clean as possible, perhaps by brand by county.

There was a recommendation in the DEEP EV Roadmap to create a dealer recognition program. We support this as long as it isn’t vaporware. If it proves to be truly robust and stays up to date, then we may back off of the data.

We hope to be able to post the actual data soon. This doesn’t seem like a difficult request.

EVs are not uniformly distributed across the state

Fairfield County has consistently tracked at around 40% of EVs in the state and is 41% in this July 1, 2020 iteration. This compares with its having 26% of the state’s population. All of the other counties under-index relative to population.

EV Distribution by City

The top cities largely held their position in terms of the number of registered EVs with Greenwich, Stamford, and Westport in the top 3 positions. This chart excerpt shows the most recent two data points, January and July, for the largest cities. Greenwich added the largest number of any city with 69 additional EVs since January.

EVs Per Capita by City

Westport remains the leader in EVs per capita, followed by Weston, New Canaan, Woodbridge, and Greenwich. This screenshot is an excerpt of the top cities. The full list can be viewed in the dashboard (use the scroller).

Fuel Type Trend

The mid-year 2020 update for the interactive EV Dashboard has been published. The relatively strong performance for BEVs contrasts with the change for PHEVs, which increased only 1% over the past 12 months. As of July 1, there were 6874 BEVs and 5092 PHEVs (along with 25 electric motorcycles and 3 fuel cell vehicles).

This has been the recent trend, with PHEV growth leveling off beginning with the January 2019 data point (covering the 2018 calendar year).

Trend of Registered EVs

There are now 12,624 EVs registered in the state, as of July 1.

While the overall EV growth was slower than we would like, the last 6 months, perhaps surprisingly since they included the pandemic, was similar to the prior 6 months. There have been reports of EVs suffering a smaller sales decline than the industry at large. The 16.9% growth rate of the past 12 months is almost exactly double the 8.1% of the last 6 months.

Trends by Make

The pattern that we have seen over the last few iterations of the dashboard holds here, namely that Tesla is the big driver. This chart tracks the change in EV registrations by Make since 2017. It is an excerpt – all makes are available in the dashboard.

Tesla now accounts for 40% of all registered EVs in the state with 5035 vehicles. (For charts in this blog post that do not display values, those can also be seen on the dashboard by hovering over a chart element.)

If we look at it from the perspective of the contribution of each make to the increase of the past 12 months, it is even clearer. This waterfall chart shows that Tesla was responsible for 74% of EV growth (all EVs, not just BEVs). Some manufacturers, as can also be seen in the trend chart, are seeing declines in net cumulative registrations.

Trends by Model

When we drill into the individual models, it is the Model 3 that defines the picture. The growth of the Toyota Prius Prime (Prius Plug-in and Prius Prime are combined in these charts) has greatly slowed. The Model S and X have a steady, but not terribly large increase (and it is likely the Model 3 is cutting into sales of the S in particular). The Model Y has yet to make its presence felt with just 29 of them in the file. The Chevy Volt, once the most widely registered model in the state, has been discontinued. It has a presence in the used EV marketplace, but the overall numbers are showing a gradual decline. The Nissan Leaf is another major early EV that has slowed considerably in recent years.

The outlook for the rest of the year has to be characterized as uncertain. We aren’t close to being done with the pandemic and the bad economy. Manufacturers have delayed refreshes and new introductions until 2021. We are expecting significant refreshes for the and Bolt, the new Ford Mach-E, Rivian SUV and pickup, among others. The chart below is also an excerpt of individual model trends with the full chart available on the dashboard.

Newly Registered EVs

This is the chart of EVs by Make registered in the past 6 months. Tesla accounted for 47% of all new registrations, which is why it’s current share has increased, and why BEVs are growing. There were a total of 1525 vehicles registered in the past 6 months. With a turnover of 578 vehicles, the net increase was 947.

The increase we are seeing, assuming it remains similar for the second half of this year, is pacing below the necessary compound annual growth rate to meet the objectives of the ZEV MOU.

A word about the data:

The EV Club of CT has a standing Freedom of Information Act Request with the Department of Motor Vehicles. The DMV updates its census of EVs semi-annually, and when they do, they send us a file of the vehicle details. A reminder that this dataset is registrations, not sales. It includes new vehicle sales or leases, used EV purchases, people moving into the state who own EVs. We do not get the “denominator,” meaning all of the vehicles registered in the state, so we are not able to look at EV share of the total market.

The dashboard itself is interactive. Hovering over a chart element will display the value. The charts can be filtered by clicking in a chart element or by checking the boxes in the slicers. Multiple boxes can be checked. Please contact us if you have any questions.

CHEAPR Rebates Continue to Crawl – Revised Guidelines Needed

UPDATE: CHEAPR Board Meeting Scheduled for July 17th.

CHEAPR recently published updated stats through May 30. The recent trend continues. May rebates totaled 25. The breakdown is 14 BEV, 11 PHEV, and 0 Fuel Cell.

With the publication of the May dataset, CHEAPR restated its data for April. For those who saw the blog post regarding the April data, the 13 rebates have been revised to 17. It is not unusual that minor adjustments are made a little after the fact.

CHEAPR has been pacing severely under budget as defined by total rebate dollars awarded relative to a straight line pacing of the $3MM annual budget (i.e. $250K monthly). Any month where rebates are under $250K will cause this underage to widen. The amount rebated in May was $26,500 and the expended funds are now 81% under the pace number.

The most rebated vehicles were the Tesla Model 3 with 8 rebates and the Toyota Prius Prime, also with 8 rebates.

CHEAPR publishes stats on its website and makes an Excel download available, which is what we work from. There are two date columns and we use the application submission date rather than the sale date as that is what CHEAPR bases its own reporting on.

We have reached out to CHEAPR to request the names of the dealers associated with each rebate (for non-Teslas, obviously). Our request has been “escalated to management.” It is common for our club to get asked for dealer recommendations by people in the market for an EV. By the time they contact us, they have usually already visited one or two dealers and it wasn’t a pleasant experience. We have names of some dealerships that have been recommended by members, but this would be hard data and we think it will help, especially in areas of the state where we don’t have a lot of members. We also understand its limitations and will act accordingly. Dealership-level info is published in some other states, NY for example.

The CHEAPR board is supposed to meet in July. We have not heard about a confirmed date. According to the website, the program will have some revisions for 2020 and we eagerly await to hear what they are. We feel the current structure is not working and have offered our input, which has been described in prior blog posts, such as this recent post from June 1.

Westport Police Department Receives Donation of Used BMW i3

The local police have been rather busy of late with the protests that have been occurring in the wake of George Floyd’s murder at the hands of the Minneapolis PD, and, of course, coping with the stresses of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Not to lose sight of the significance of that, the greening of the municipal police force continues apace. The police department was recently the recipient of a donation of a used BMW i3 from a local resident. It is a 2015 REx model, which translates to an EPA-rated 72 miles of electric range, or up to 150 miles total, including the gasoline range-extender engine.

The vehicle has been customized for its duties and it looks sharp!

The “bimmer” joins a growing family of green vehicles as the police, part of the town’s push to net-zero, are testing a variety of vehicles for different use cases. This “new” addition is being used for security at Staples High School and adjacent Bedford Middle School, where security duty lasts 8-10 hours per day. It replaces a Ford Taurus that was consuming 6 to 8 gallons of gasoline daily, per Chief of Police Foti Koskinas. If we take an average daily usage of 7 gallons and multiply it by 200 service days per year (per the police), it works out to an estimated 1400 gallons of gasoline and 14 tons of carbon emissions annually. (Source for calculation: NASA)

There is a no-idling rule at Staples. Ironically, the most persistent offender has been the police since the patrol vehicle must remain running while on duty. Now they have emission-free idling running off the battery. When it comes to the police, this is why it is important to focus on gallons of gasoline used or saved rather than just MPG. A police vehicle spends thousands of hours idling over the course of its service life.

The low-speed patrolling around the schools means the electric drive will function at high efficiency.

Daily recharging? No sweat. There are two level-2 charging stations at Staples and the vehicle gets plugged in after hours.

Expanding Number of Green Vehicles

Along with the new arrival, the WPD has a Tesla Model 3 that was customized as a police cruiser and went into service during February, 2 plug-in Toyota Priuses that are used for parking and traffic enforcement at the town’s two Metro-North train stations and downtown, and a Ford Explorer hybrid (not a plug-in hybrid) that was also acquired for cruiser duty this year. Before the Tesla and the hybrid Explorer, the standard vehicle for cruisers was a conventional Ford Explorer. The EPA-rated mileage of the hybrid Explorer is 28 MPG, compared to 16 MPG for the standard version. These 5 environmentally friendly vehicles, which comprise a little less than 10% of the total fleet, will enable the collection of data to refine the department’s approach to future acquisitions.

Tesla Model 3 Update

This blog covered the vehicle entering service in February of this year here and here. There was a planned public press event for when the weather turned warmer, which did not happen due to the pandemic. We have a few updates.

According to Chief Foti, the vehicle has been performing as hoped and he describes the ongoing relationship with Tesla as excellent, crediting them with being very responsive and having a continued willingness to work with the PD in terms of making upgrades.

As previously reported, the Model 3 is already making use of the Tesla cameras. The Tesla lights are incorporated into the police emergency lighting, and all of the accessories requiring electricity are wired into the large battery.

Since we wrote about the vehicle in February, there have been two additional upgrades. The default setting for the headlights is that they turn off one minute after the car turns off. This was not enough for the police. Tesla did some software recoding and the lights now persist longer.

The biggest open question at the time the vehicle was put into service was whether the police would be able to use the computer that is native to the vehicle rather than install their own. This is a complex challenge due to the need to have an airtight firewall between the police databases that would be accessed and Tesla’s proprietary information. It is still a work in progress but there has been one significant development. Working with Tesla, the police have installed stationary radar, which logs directly into the computer. If they get to the point where the Tesla computer can be fully utilized, it would save between $5-$6,000 in customization costs.

The i3 donation was not a planned event, but it wouldn’t have happened had not Chief Foti, the department, and the town administration not demonstrated a vision for how to move the town forward in an environmentally-friendly way (which also happens to save money). The EV Club applauds and supports that vision.

Rebates at Lowest Level Ever

The lowest number of monthly rebates since its inception has been awarded by CHEAPR in April 2020, a not so grand total of 13, down from 90 in March.

There is almost no public reporting anymore of monthly new vehicle sales, but we know the automotive sector rapidly plunged in the latter half of March, which was felt over the duration of April. There have been some reports of a modest uptick in May.

Following the counter-intuitive increase in rebates in March (relative to Jan. and Feb.), when the rest of the world was collapsing, this is probably more in line with what will be the new normal for the time being. Tesla so dominates the EV market, as well as being the only manufacturer to post a sizable YOY sales increase in Q1, that how many Model 3s are rebate eligible is mostly what determines where the trend goes. It is also possible that some Model 3 supply disruption due to the temporary closure of the Fremont plant is part of the reason, as well. The Model 3 accounted for 54% of April rebates, which translates to all of 7. General Motors has been heavily discounting the Chevy Bolt, but there were no Bolt rebates in April.

CHEAPR Way Under Budget

This blog has been critical of the drastic restrictions imposed on rebate parameters in October 2019. DEEP told us at the Tesla Leasing Event in February that they were concerned that funds would run dry. That was a 3-month problem (Oct – Dec. 2019) until the new funding started, but the new CHEAPR board has yet to course-correct, despite pacing hugely under budget.

The CHEAPR budget is $3 million annually and there are no rules about how it is supposed to pace. There are good reasons for carefully managing the budget. Temporary funding disruptions are, well, disruptive. However, if we look at the budget on a straight-line cumulative basis and compare it to the dollar amount issued for rebates, by that definition it is pacing 79% below budget.

There is also the consideration of a forthcoming rebate for used EVs. To this point, there has been no announcement, and we are doubtful there will be one anytime soon because the Roadmap recommends that an outside contractor be engaged to design and implement it, meaning this presumably hasn’t happened yet. We also expect that an incentive for a used EV will be lower than for a new vehicle, and will include an income cap, as well as a lower MSRP cap. We don’t see this as a budget-buster.

EV Roadmap and CHEAPR

The subject of purchase incentives is accorded 15 pages in the EV Roadmap and it traces the origins and thinking about the program. It is still true today, as it was in 2015 when CHEAPR was begun, that while battery prices are on a downward trajectory, EVs have not yet reached cost-parity with ICE vehicles. Cited in the Roadmap is a stat from the Multi-State ZEV Action Plan that there was an average purchase price difference of greater than $10,000 between comparable EV and ICE vehicles in 2016. While EVs cost less to run and maintain, this headline price difference is a real barrier.

I have to say that it was a surprise to learn from the Roadmap that until 2020, CHEAPR was a pilot. For 5 years. Well, okay. With the legislation that was passed last year, it is now reconstituted with an independent board that remains situated in DEEP for administrative purposes.

Something that has changed is that two manufacturers, Tesla and General Motors, have exceeded the unit sales threshold for the federal EV tax credit and have passed beyond the phase-out period. There is no federal incentive for vehicles from these two manufacturers. The Roadmap cites projections from EVAdoption that indicate the next automaker to cross the sales threshold will be Nissan in the latter half of 2021. (This projection predates the COVID-19 crisis.) Attempts in Congress to modify the program and raise the threshold have not met with success. In this context, CHEAPR assumes a larger role.

Value of Purchase Incentives

The EV Club of CT is a supporter of CHEAPR and available data indicate that incentives matter. CHEAPR has handed out 5,984 rebates through April 30, 2020. Given that there were 11,677 EVs registered in the state as of Jan 1, 2020, the program looks to have played a meaningful role. Survey-research of rebate recipients reports that over 80% of respondents cite the incentive as being either extremely or very important to their decision to acquire an EV.

The Roadmap cites experiences of similar programs in other states. One of them is Georgia, which has been cited previously in this blog, as a dramatic example of a “light switch test.” When Georgia lawmakers rescinded a generous tax credit of $5,000 and added an annual EV fee, sales fell off a cliff. This is a graphical representation of what happened that was published on page 89 of the Roadmap.

Rebate Parameters

There are several variables that go into how much of a rebate if any, a given EV purchaser qualifies for, which we are calling rebate parameters (and which DEEP refers to as “bins).

• Available funding
• Rebate size and tiers
• MSRP cap
• Future consideration of a rebate for used EVs, along with a likely income cap.
• One rebate lifetime per licensed driver

Rebates are offered for battery electric vehicles (BEV), Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles (PHEV), and Fuel-Cell Electric Vehicles (FCEV). Rebate parameters have changed several times since the program began. The size of the rebate was originally pegged to the size of the battery pack but was modified in 2017 to be based on EPA-rated electric range. Battery pack size is not directly indicative of the range, so this approach makes sense. Also, over time, there are changes in technology (substantially longer ranges) and other aspects of the environment that gradually, but consistently, evolve.

The MSRP cap initially was $60,000. It was changed to $50,000 in October of 2018 and then to $42,000 where it currently stands. Rebate tiers are currently $5000 for any FCEV, $1500 for a BEV with a range of at least 200 miles, $500 for a BEV with a range of fewer than 200 miles, and $500 for any PHEV.

The number of rebates awarded has declined significantly since the October change and it is obviously because the lower level now excludes almost all trim levels of the Model 3. This blog has discussed this previously on April 2nd and in earlier posts.

We also noted that the lowering of the MSRP caused a shift in the mix of rebates toward PHEVs, which we discussed here. (April is the low-volume exception.) But you wouldn’t know this from the Roadmap, which on page 83, contains this exhibit of rebates by fuel-type.

The footnote indicates that the rebate data had been updated through July 26, 2019, in other words, before the changes were made. It seems clear that lowering the MSRP cap was counter-productive, both from the perspective of consumers being able to use the rebate along with making the funds less efficient in terms of zero-emission miles subsidized. The market in general is trending toward BEVs which may eventually change things. But we strongly feel that the MSRP should be raised to at least $50,000 (same as MA) or higher (NJ is $55,000 and NY is $60,000). The rebate levels could be left in place while the run-rate is evaluated with the higher MSRP, whatever modeling has been done for used EVs, and projections for when this depressed market normalizes. We are not aware of the law allowing unused funds from one year to be carried forward.

Dealer Incentive

A headline that appeared over a NY Times story in 2015 read, “A Car Dealers Won’t Sell: It’s Electric.” The unwillingness of many dealers to sell EVs has been a persistent bottleneck. So the idea that DEEP included in the original CHEAPR formulation a $300 incentive that would go to the dealership for each EV sold seemed a worthwhile experiment. It may sound slightly farcical to pay a business that is in the business of selling cars to sell cars, but if that is what it takes to seed change, so be it.

The incentive was subsequently lowered from $300 to $150. In the Roadmap, DEEP openly questions whether it is worth it and whether the funds would be better allocated to consumers to stretch what is a modest budget when compared to incentives in other states. (For example, the New Jersey per capita funding is 50% higher.) DEEP also found that the majority of the incentives were kept by the dealership, i.e. not given to the salespeople, which was kind of the basic idea.

This was underscored by two EV Shopper Studies done by the Sierra Club in 2016 and 2019. In the latter study, it was found that 74% of dealers did not have a single EV on the lot. The study did not report out CT separately (only CA had sufficient sample size for that) but in the 2019 study, there were no local dealers among those visited in the research that scored the highest rating. Our EV Club does know of some dealerships that do a good job with EVs and we appreciate them. We just wish they were the norm and not the exception.

VW Works Around Its Dealers in Germany

The most interesting recent development is from VW in Germany. They have announced that VW corporate will take responsibility for selling EVs and the dealers will only act as agents. Dealers will arrange test drives and deliver the car, but will not otherwise be part of the sales process. They will receive a fee for each vehicle they deliver and they will not have to buy the car. This last part is particularly interesting because it eliminates the risk of having to carry the cost of financing the vehicle if it is a slow-seller. It is the closest one can come to direct sales while still maintaining the franchise sales model and implicitly acknowledges its limitations. Here is a more detailed description published in ChargedEVs.

Dealer Recognition Program

Instead of the dealership financial incentive, we endorse DEEP’s proposal to work with the CT Auto Retailers Association (CARA) and create a dealer recognition program. If this is promoted to the consumer, it could serve to avoid some of the negative feedback loop that currently exists. We encourage that care is taken in giving this award so it isn’t vaporware. EV Club of CT works with the Sierra Club to conduct its EV Shopper Studies and our feedback to them will be to separately track visits to dealerships that are recognized in this way to see if their actions match the certification.

Fuel-Cell Electric Vehicle Incentive

CHEAPR has included FCEVs in its incentive plan from the beginning when incentives were set at $3,000. In July of 2016, the FCEV incentive was raised to $5,000. And when the MSRP cap was lowered to $42,000 for EVs, it was raised to $60,000 for FCEVs (they’re more expensive).

There have been exactly zero of these incentives awarded and there is a total of 3 FCEVs registered in the state. There is only 1 public hydrogen refueling station in CT.

FCEVs were dropped from the federal tax credit in 2017.

The rationale in the Roadmap is to support all promising new technologies and DEEP recommends continuing these levels for FCEVs for the duration of the current funding, which is through 2025. Their goals are modest: 591 FCEVs in the fleet and 6 or 7 refueling stations in the state by 2025. Keep in mind that a hydrogen refueling infrastructure has to be built from scratch. The other rationale that we have heard is that FCEVs have a longer range (and a short refueling time if you can find a place to fill up). The range part of that used to be the case, but now the longer-range BEVs have a similar range as FCEVs and higher mpg-e. Certainly, the differential in incentive can no longer be justified by range alone.

This blog is not against FCEVs, which are zero-emission vehicles. We do feel that DEEP/CHEAPR over-emphasizes them and, at times, uses them to represent CHEAPR in an intellectually dishonest way. At the Tesla Leasing Event in February, the DEEP spokesperson said that the CHEAPR program offers rebates of up to $5,000. It may be a convenient headline, but it is only true in the narrowest technical sense. For all practical purposes, the max rebate is currently $1500. And almost no Tesla qualifies for even that.

This is a link to the Roadmap. DEEP recommendations for CHEAPR are on page 92. We won’t repeat them here.

As we have made clear, these are our priorities:

• Raise the MSRP cap.
• Move quickly to implement an incentive for used EVs.
• Raise rebate levels, funds permitting.
• Eliminate the dealer incentive and re-purpose those funds for consumers.
• Develop guidelines for a dealer recognition program, which hopefully includes some input from consumers.
• Publish rebate data at the dealership level as they do in New York. Arguably, that alone is a dealer recognition program.
• Make e-bikes eligible for incentives under CHEAPR.

And, finally, one area where we are in agreement with the Roadmap, is to look to the future and the potential for leveraging incentives by partnering with utilities, as part of TCI, and with the manufacturers.

The photo above of the Hartford area air quality, with readings of zero, means that in order to have cleaner air, you’d have to live on the moon. Air quality was already hugely improved as a result of the COVID related lockdown which has shuttered industry and greatly lessened traffic volume. Add to that a storm system that moved through the area yesterday, followed by high winds today, and we now have a “breathe deeply” moment.

As we have said in previous posts, we have an opportunity as a society, to implement measures going forward to maintain this level of air quality.

Below is Fairfield County. Not quite perfect, but close.

For comparisons to what air quality typically is in recent years in this area, which ain’t great, see our earlier post. It contains historical images from PurpleAir and NASA.