48% Month Over Month Drop in October Rebates

Newly released data, updated with transactions through October 31, show a decline from September to October from 97 to 59 rebates. (The September number was restated and is slightly higher than the initial reporting.) The expenditure for consumer rebates for the 10 months of the year to date is $587,000. The annual budget (including admin and dealer incentives) is $3 million. (The consolation is that the unspent funds will be rolled over into 2021.) There have been 62% fewer rebates issued year over year, Jan. through Oct. (546 vs 1435).

The Tesla Model 3 (15 rebates) and the Toyota Prius Prime (13) were the only vehicles in double digits for the month.

2020 has been a lost year in many ways that are more important than CHEAPR. But in our EV world, this incentive program has been in need of revamping and it hasn’t happened. We will discuss our take on why in a moment.

In another 6 -8 weeks or, we expect we’ll have the data to see if this was a lost year for EVs in general in CT.

We have blogged in the past about how we feel that CHEAPR has been a meaningful program, having given out over 6,000 rebates since inception. But rebate numbers, which had been steadily building, have reversed course since the changes in October 2019 that lowered the incentive levels and the MSRP cap, which was then further exacerbated by the recession.

Revisions to the program that were promised for 2020 are still pending. The most recent board meeting was on October 9th. There is no meeting posted on its website as of this writing. The CHEAPR board apparently remains divided as we await a vote on revised parameters. (This is our reading of the situation. The EV Club is not represented on the board, something we have requested.)

The legislation passed in May 2019 authorized a used EV incentive. A revised program plan was submitted to the board in July that included an income-limited used EV incentive and an income-limited supplemental incentive for new EVs. There has also been discussion of a time-limited “stimulus” incentive adder.

From our perspective, the impasse stems from whether to restore the base incentive and MSRP cap to the levels of before Oct 2019. (The used and supplemental incentives haven’t been areas of controversy.) DEEP is concerned that doing that and adding the new incentives risks depleting funds that could result in a temporary interruption in the program. They rely on modeling from their program consultant to assess this. (Though there was another round of modeling requested in October that has not been publicly disclosed to this point).

There was a second reason articulated by DEEP, which is that for the more expensive vehicles, consumers will buy them anyway, rebate or no. We don’t see it that way but won’t get further into that here.

Time to Restore the Prior Incentive Levels

The EV Club, along with the broader CT EV Coalition, believes there is a strong case for restoring the pre-October 2019 incentive levels and MSRP cap, along with introducing the used and supplemental incentives.

• The program is clearly failing this year.
• As of the most recently published EV registration data by the DMV in July, the state is losing ground relative to the commitments made in the Multi-state Zero Emission Vehicle Action Plan.
• There will be $4.9 million in available funds in 2021 due to this year’s underspending and some unused bridge funds from 2019, a 63% increase relative to budget.
• The recessionary economy is likely to persist for another 6 months. Let’s hope it is only that long. (It also makes for a difficult environment in which to model.)
• Due to the income-limitation aspect of the used and supplemental incentives, software development is required for implementation. They are thus unlikely to be ready for launch on January 1.
• The take rate for the used EV incentive is likely to be low in the short-term.
  • The incentive is income-limited.
  • The dealership representation on the board stated that the current market for used EVs is small. Our analysis of DMV registration files is consistent with this perspective.
  • As noted, the start date is unknown at this time.
  • There is still a shortage of charging infrastructure in the urban communities that this is intended to most benefit. This applies to the supplemental incentive as well. Over time, this will improve, but it will still be an issue in 2021.
• For BEVs, which, as noted in DEEP’s EV Roadmap, have a greater impact in lowering greenhouse gas emissions, there just aren’t a lot of them available under the current $42,000 cap. As EV introductions move more toward larger battery packs, EUVs, crossovers, and other popular (and larger) form-factors, this is likely to be even more the case.
• Even at the old (higher) levels, the CT plan is less generous than what is offered in other, nearby states.
• Finally, the EV Coalition intends to lobby for a larger share of the clean-air fee to be devoted to CHEAPR. If successful, the budget issue will be ameliorated. If not, there will be plenty of runway to make adjustments, not to mention empirical data as a basis on which to do so.

The Ford Motor Company bets the Mustang brand on the battery-electric Mustang Mach-E!

Post by Larry Thompson

The original Mustang was launched in 1964 at the World’s Fair in New York (pictured).  It had a 6 cylinder gasoline engine producing 101 horsepower and could go from 0-60 mph in 8.2 seconds.  It cost $2,400 and sold 22,000 cars on the first day, more than 400,000 cars in 1965, and more than 10 million to date.

Times change, and the 2021 Mach-E is a battery-electric SUV with a 75 – 98 kWh battery located between the wheels for maximum cornering performance.  The performance (GT) model has 459 horsepower and can go from 0-60 mph in less than 4 seconds.   The Mach-E has a range of 210 – 300 miles and can be charged at home or any EV charging station with Combined Charging Systems (CCS) connectors.

Ford tells us the car can charge from 10% to 80% capacity in 38 to 45 minutes using public Level 3 charging stations.  Compatible charging providers include EVGO, Blink Charging, and Chargepoint.   Every Mach-E also comes with 250 kilowatt-hours of free charging at more than 400 Electrify America fast-charging stations.  Additionally, the FordPass Charging Network consists of more than 13,500 charging stations in North America.

Because the Mach-E is a battery-electric vehicle, it produces no tailpipe emissions or greenhouse gases which helps reduce the effects of climate change.

Mach-E Arriving in Showrooms Later This Month

The Mach-E will be in showrooms in late November and vehicle shipments are expected by the end of the year.  Pricing ranges from $42,895 to $61,600.  As of this writing (November 2020), the Mach-E qualifies for a Federal incentive of $7,500.  However, there is no incentive in Connecticut as the CHEAPR program currently only provides incentives for EVs with a maximum MSRP of $42,000.

Thanks to the folks at Stevens Ford and Lincoln in Milford, Connecticut for providing the opportunity to photograph the Mach-E.

Community Choice Aggregation Can Provide a Cleaner Grid and Lower Electric Rates

EVs enable us to drive with zero emissions. But EVs can be an even cleaner choice when the electricity used to charge the battery comes from a clean grid.

On December 2, at 7:00 PM, the club will host a Zoom meeting where the featured speaker will be Peter Millman of People’s Action for Clean Energy (PACE). He will be speaking to us about Community Choice Aggregation (CCA) and how we can go about making this an option for CT residents.

CCA involves communities controlling power procurement and offering modern energy products and services. These include programs that encourage more rooftop solar, battery storage, energy efficiency, demand response, and EV infrastructure. The goals of CC are to reduce energy costs, lower GHG emissions, and increase resilience. The utility still owns, operates, and maintains the distribution infrastructure.

This is on the docket of the Public Utilities Regulatory Agency (PURA), but it requires action by the legislature as well. Peter will explain the details, the next steps, and what citizens can do to support this initiative.

CCA is operational in a number of other states where it has successfully enabled a cleaner energy mix and lower electric rates.

CCA can happen. This is not tilting at wind turbines!

Polestar Test Drive Event

A picture-perfect Indian summer day set the scene for an EV Club event sponsored by Manhattan Motors, the regional dealer for the new Polestar brand. Polestar is Volvo’s racing brand but has now been spun off as a standalone brand selling high-end EVs.

Polestar vehicles are manufactured by Geely, the parent company of Volvo. There are two Polestar vehicles, the Polestar 1, a plug-in hybrid, and the Polestar 2, a battery-electric vehicle with 233 miles of range and a 0 to 60 MPH sprint in under 5 seconds.

The Polestar 2 starts at about $60,000 with a performance version that sneaks past $70,000. The Polestar 1 starts at $155,000 and there are a few interior options that can add another $5000.

Both of the Polestar models have all-wheel drive. Delivery of these vehicles will begin within a month.

The Polestar distribution model is different than a traditional automobile company and different from Tesla. It sells through dealerships but only has 4 licensed dealerships in the country, 2 in the San Francisco metro area, 1 in Los Angeles, and one in New York City. The company has a “concierge”-style service model and the vehicle is delivered to the consumer’s residence. Unlike with Tesla, they can deliver a vehicle to a CT address because they are a dealership, meaning that Manhattan Motors buys the vehicles from Polestar.  For servicing, Polestar’s sister company is brought into the process. Volvo dealers will be able to service these vehicles. The concierge model extends to service. The car is retrieved from and returned to the customer, and a loaner is provided.

Polestar advises that there will be a subsequent version of the Polestar 2 with a smaller battery pack and without all-wheel drive at a lower price point. No ETA at this time.

EV Incidence and Political Party Registrations by City

As this is being written on Election Day, and with an enormous chasm between the environmental/climate change plans of the two presidential candidates, we thought it a good time to look at how EVs fit into the CT political landscape based on voter registration in Connecticut.

I do not have data at the individual person level. I am working with counts at the city level – of EVs, median household income, and voter registration.

The most highly-correlated factor with respect to EVs is income. With Tesla the dominant, and pricey, make, EVs still carrying a higher cost than ICE generally, and limited supply of affordable used EVs, that isn’t surprising. Also, there is still a significant lack of access to charging in our more urban areas with many people living in multiple unit dwellings. For that reason, in the charts below, I have filtered out the roughly one-third of cities with a median household income of <$75K in order to obtain a sharper focus on the political registrations.

The chart at the top shows EV incidence and voter registration counts by party by city. The bars are all the same size because they total back to 100%. The variations in proportions by each color are driven by the proportion of voter registrations, which come from CT.gov, by party. Red and blue are obvious. The gold represents both independents and minor party registrations. Minor parties are a very small part of that grouping. The line shows EVs as a percentage of all vehicles within each city.

This screengrab is an excerpt. The full chart has been added to the EV Dashboard.

Bipartisan presence of EVs

There is not a significant correlation between voter registration profile and EV incidence. The two top EV cities, Westport and Weston, are Democratic redoubts. The next two cities are New Canaan, where registered Republicans outnumber Democrats by 2:1, and Greenwich which also has a Republican skew. This is followed by Wilton, which is evenly divided, and then Darien, which has a similar profile to New Canaan. We regard this bipartisan profile to be encouraging and feel that this, and the environment in general, shouldn’t be a partisan issue.

2016 Election Profile

CT is a blue state and voted for Clinton in 2016. The two charts below filter the chart by which cities voted for Clinton vs. Trump.  The hypothesis was that the profiles might be more extreme than overall registration, and that turns out to be the case. (The income filter remains in these two charts.)

Looking at the data this way, as presumably, Trump won the most conservative cities, a clear difference emerges with much higher EV incidence in Clinton cities, including Republican-dominant cities that voted for Clinton.

Clinton Cities 2016

Trump Cities 2016

Looking at the data this way, as presumably, Trump won the most conservative cities, a clear difference emerges with much higher EV incidence in Clinton cities, including Republican-dominant cities that voted for Clinton.

Polestar 2 to Spend an Afternoon in Westport for Test Drives

A jazzy new entry in the luxury EV space, the Polestar 2, is being brought by Manhattan Motors to Westport on Saturday, November 7th at 12:00 PM. Test drives will be offered on a first-come-first-served basis.

Judging by the form-factor, it looks like a sport sedan. But it has a hatch and ample cargo space so that it feels like it is fitting in-between a sedan and a crossover. It is clearly targeting Tesla, along with the Jaguar iPace and the Audi eTron.

Location: TecKnow in Bedford Square, Westport

The location will be outside the TecKnow store at Bedford Square, 12 Elm Street in downtown Westport. If you come to the event, please leave the circle area for the Polestar. There is free parking across the street in the Baldwin lot.

Polestar is not exclusively an EV brand. The Polestar 1 is a sporty ICE vehicle Porsche competitor that starts at $155,000. The vehicles are manufactured in China by Geely, which is also the parent company of Volvo. The car shares some architecture with Volvo but is a more futuristic, high-tech brand.

A Polestar 2 base trim level will set you back $59,900, and a loaded vehicle gets to about $72,000. According to the manufacturer website, the EPA rated range is 233 miles delivered from a 78 kWh battery pack.

We have had one club-member do a test-drive to this point. His succinct evaluation: “Impressive.”

Numerous EV Models Appear in Parade

30 EVs participated in this parade, a joint effort between the EV Club of CT and the Sustainable Fairfield Task Force. Parade participation was capped at this number to avoid being overly disruptive to local traffic

There was one novelty vehicle, a 1903 Baker replica. In its day, the Baker was quite the speedster, topping at about 48 MPH. It is a reminder that electricity was the dominant mode of energizing cars around the turn of the previous century.

The parade followed a roughly 25-mile route, beginning at the Westport Metro-North Depot, where the proceedings were kicked off by Westport First Selectman Jim Marpe. The route headed north up Imperial Avenue, jagged over Jesup to then proceed up Main Street, looping around Avery and Myrtle, and taking a left onto the Post Rd. heading East. There it stayed until hitting downtown Fairfield, where it veered off to Old Town Hall and concluded with  a second brief ceremony with Fairfield officials.

Throughout the event, masking was required and social distancing was observed.

Escorting the parade was the Westport Police Tesla Model 3 that has been fully outfitted as a police cruiser.

Deliveries of the newest Tesla Model, the “Y”, have been coming into CT, and this was one of 4 appearing in the parade.

This Toyota Prius Prime, a plug-in hybrid, is one of four plug-in vehicles currently in use by the Westport Police and it was the rear bookend of the parade.

Few CHEAPR Rebates Given in August

Another tepid, desultory, underwhelming (I’m running out of adjectives – feel free to help in the comments) month for the CHEAPR program with only 40 rebates given out and a total dollar amount of $28,000. This is the second-lowest month of the year and continues the dispiriting (another adjective!) trend we have seen since November 2019. One interesting item: there were 9 rebates for the new Toyota RAV4 Prime plug-in hybrid. Between the RAV4 Prime and the Prius Prime, Toyota vehicles dominated the rebate activity. The reporting has been that the plug-in RAV4 Prime is a severely supply-constrained vehicle at present and there was some doubt that any would make it out of California, but apparently, they have.

Note: CHEAPR often restates the prior month when issuing new data. In this case, July has increased from 57 to 62 rebates and it is incorporated into the title graph.

Decision Time

The next CHEAPR meeting is scheduled for October 9 at 11:00 AM.

The Center for Sustainable Energy (CSE) presented a set of proposals for program revisions in July. The agenda includes a vote on the new program. The meeting is scheduled for only one hour, so we don’t expect much discussion. We do not know if this will be an up or down vote on the package or if the items will be considered individually. We know that despite 3 meetings and public comments, there isn’t a consensus on all the items.

This is what we know to the best of our information.

The package that will likely be presented to the board in October will have no differences relative to what was proposed in July.

• No e-bike incentive or even a pilot test. Ix-nay on this from the DEEP attorneys.
• A used-EV income-limited (lower/middle income, or LMI) incentive (non-controversial).
• A supplemental LMI EV incentive (non-controversial).
• No changes to base incentive levels or to the MSRP cap.
• No changes to the much higher fuel-cell vehicle incentive, which stands at $5000 with an MSRP cap of $60,000.

UPDATES as of 10/25/20

Modeling scenarios include:

• Maintaining the current (since 10/19) MSRP cap of $42K or raising it to $50K.
• Base BEV incentives of $2500 or $1500.
• A possible temporary “stimulus” additional sample of $1750 for BEVs and FCEVs, and $500 for PHEVs.
• $500 increase to $2500 for the LMI incentive.
• Possible inclusion of scenarios with base-level incentives less than $1500.

Incentive Levels and MSRP Cap

Much commentary, from board members, public attendees, and public comments, was in favor of raising the base incentives and the MSRP cap to at least where they were before DEEP lowered them in October 2019. These currently stand well below comparable incentive programs in nearby states. The CSE was tasked with modeling scenarios and they forecasted that there was a possibility that demand would exceed available funds, thus risking disruption. This blog doesn’t buy that line of argument for several reasons.

• A pandemic and recession of unknown duration make for a difficult environment in which to model. There is a lot of guesswork here, exacerbated by the fact that there are no empirical data on the take-rates for the new LMI incentives. A disruption would likely only occur if the economy roars back and the participation rates are at the high end of estimates.
• The dealership contingent spoke out for a higher MSRP cap. They argued that leases have grown in popularity to about half of all new car sales, and people can manage a lease payment on a vehicle they can’t afford to buy. Also, we are soon to see a wave of crossover and SUV EV launches, and these popular form factors are more expensive than sedans.
• Based on our analysis, and comments from the dealers, there isn’t much of a used EV market at this time. The incentive will help, but it will take some time for auction bids to be influenced such that inventory can build. Also, used Teslas are probably too expensive for an LMI limited buyer (and we don’t know how the rules will work for them – they may not qualify – something we will seek to find out).
• At the July meeting, when CSE proposed this incentive regime, they advised that the LMI system development would cause it not to be available until Q1 2021. We don’t know if they have been able to work on it during this period when the program isn’t finalized, but there could potentially be a delay.
• There is more money available – DEEP has indicated that the unspent funds from 2020 (they have only given out $398,000 in consumer rebates), as well as unspent bridge financing from 2019, will be rolled over into 2021. This will yield approximately $4.9 million in available funds (compared to the $3 million budget).
• The CHEAPR mission seems to be increasingly skewed towards the equity part of the mission. This blog supports the LMI incentives (and e-bikes, for that matter), but also sees the mission as just getting more EVs on the road. The program has fallen seriously short of that in the past year.

For these reasons, we think the best course is to raise the incentives and collect data. There will be plenty of time to course-correct if necessary. CHEAPR has an important role to play in moving people to drive electric. This is attested to by consumers, dealers, and our data. Let’s allow it to fulfill its potential.

Closing Pet Peeve

The $5000 fuel-cell rebate has never been given out in the 5+ years of the program’s existence, and there is no sign it will be anytime soon. You can’t buy one of these vehicles at present, and there is only 1 public hydrogen refueling station in the state. And yet, DEEP continues to use this as its headline incentive. It is misleading. It can be seen in the first sentence of the first paragraph on the CHEAPR home page. It was spoken out loud by Tracy Babbidge during the Sustainable Fairfield Webinar on September 28th. It was said by Victoria Hackett when she spoke at the Tesla leasing kickoff in February. Those are the occasions we are aware of but this is clearly not inadvertent. They are not helping themselves.

Editors Note: The October 9th meeting did not yield a resolution. A letter from the EV Coalition was debated that proposed a different structure. No vote was taken.

Meeting Details

We encourage members of the public to listen in! This is the Zoom info:

Webinar Information:

Join Zoom Meeting

https://ctdeep.zoom.us/j/99938032925

Meeting ID: 999 3803 2925

One tap mobile

+16468769923,,99938032925# US (New York)

Meeting ID: 999 3803 2925

Find your local number: https://ctdeep.zoom.us/u/adlDH6PJuC

EV Parade to be Part of Green Wheels Expo

The EV Club and Sustainable Fairfield Task Force have partnered for National Drive Electric Week events, including an EV Parade. (The parade is currently fully subscribed.)

Parade Details:

Date: Sunday, September 27th

Time: Check-in is at 9:30 AM. The parade begins at 10:00 AM. It will last for approximately 1 hour.

Route: It begins at the Westport Metro-North Depot, New Haven-bound side. The route goes north through downtown Westport, then east on the Post Road, and ends at Old Town Hall in Fairfield.

We wish to thank all of the public officials who are supporting this event. Westport First Selectman Jim Marpe will give remarks pre-rally at the train station. Fairfield Selectwoman Nancy Lefkowitz will speak at the parade terminus at Old Town Hall. Westport Chief of Police, Foti Koskinas, will provide the parade escort in the Tesla Model 3 police cruiser. Two other WPD cars, a BMW i3 and a Toyota Prius Prime, will also be along for the ride. WPD and the Fairfield PD have worked together to coordinate.

There will also be virtual events, including an interview with EVangelist Jay Leno (yes, that Jay Leno!).

If you have solar and would like to expand it because you are buying an EV

Or if you are starting from zero, this is the process for determining how to size a system and obtain necessary approvals from the utility.

This content was provided by Ron Nelson of Apex Solar

If you have a new construction home or are adding an addition to your home………

ConnectedSolutions program at Eversource

Net Metering

Net Metering is the law of CT for now.