Post by Barry Kresch

Tesla Continues to Lap the Field

The chart at the top of the post shows the trend of all EV makes and shows net registrations at each point in time. It makes very obvious the fact that registrations are largely concentrated among a small number of companies. This trend begins with 2017, which was the first year we received data from the Department of Motor Vehicles (DMV), and covers every data point we have through July 2021. Beginning with January 2020, updates have been provided semi-annually as that frequency is driven by the statutory requirements for EV reporting imposed upon the DMV.

Tesla has continued to have substantial increases. Toyota had a notable pop. Chevrolet reversed the negative momentum and gained modestly. Ford, BMW, Hyundai, Honda, Volvo, Porsche, Chrysler and Jeep all had modest increases. Other makes had very small increases or were flat.  I will look at the vehicles that were added and drill down to models to see what caused the changes.

The pie chart below shows the vehicles added by make for the first half of the year. Tesla, with 1421 adds, was double the nearest competitor, Toyota, though the latter still had a strong period with 761 adds. The other makes with over 200 adds were Chevrolet, Hyundai, BMW, Ford, and Jeep.

This second pie chart is filtered for BEVs (the title of the chart does not change when the filter is applied), where Tesla accounted for 6 in 10 vehicles added followed by Chevy, Hyundai, and Ford.

The charts below are a filtered review of net registration trends by model within make (i.e. net cumulative registrations). This provides some context to how lineups and model impact have evolved over time. There is some degree of a rising tide lifting all boats, but there are some new models that are decidedly making a difference. They are presented in order of the number of registered units for the make.

Tesla

Starting with Tesla, while the Model 3 continues to register significant gains at each data point, and remains the most widely registered model with 3,426 vehicles, the momentum has shifted to the Model Y. The first bar, the small one, for the Model Y is small due to lack of supply. While Tesla still can’t seem to build them fast enough (as of this writing, we are advised of a ~6 month wait for most orders), the delivery count is now substantial at 1,329, approaching that of the Model S at 1,580, which it will certainly pass when we receive our next update in January 2022. Again, we are looking at registrations, but it indicates that the Model Y is outselling the Model 3. Tesla has a new plant under construction in Texas and a new battery design (the 4860) forthcoming. These developments should speed the production of the Model Y and enable Tesla to begin deliveries of the Cybertruck. Inside EVs reports Tesla having over 1.25 million pre-orders for the Cybertruck as of early August.

Toyota

The next largest make is Toyota. The Prius Prime PHEV has been around a while and had displayed a flattening trend, but registrations jumped in the first half of 2021 to 2,152. This makes it the second most widely registered model. Added to that is a decent start for the new RAV4 Prime, also a PHEV, but with one of the higher electric ranges in its class at 42 miles. There are 386 of them registered and there have been reports of their being supply-constrained. Toyota briefly made a BEV RAV4 in limited quantities. There are 2 of them in CT. The other vehicle here, the Mirai is a fuel cell car. There are 3 of those.

Toyota has been resistant to BEVs for lack of any obvious reason. They introduced a concept SUV this year, the bZ4X, and have announced a plan for 15 BEV models by 2025 (not necessarily all of them for the USA).

Chevrolet

The third most widely registered make is Chevrolet. The most widely registered Chevy is still the Volt (PHEV) that was discontinued in 2019. For a time, before the Model 3, it was the most widely registered model in the state. The decline over the last 4 data points is pretty gradual, considering the discontinuation, and could reflect a presence as a used vehicle. Chevy re-introduced the Bolt in 2021 and significantly reduced the price (possibly due to GM phasing out of the federal tax incentive). The Bolt has been a lethargic presence since its introduction, but the combination of the new model and lower price enabled it to register a jump to 787 units registered. The new EUV version of the Bolt was not yet available during the analysis period.

Ford

Ford jumped into fourth position among EV makes, very clearly on the strength of the new Mustang Mach-E. Ford has been manufacturing EVs, both BEV and PHEV, for some time without any models getting traction. More recently, they have switched to a strategy of building an EV version of their most iconic brands, the Mustang and the F-150. In the case of the Mustang, it is more a case of branding as the electric Mustang is an EUV. The F-150 Lightning really is an electric F-150 pickup.

The Mach-E BEV has 136 units, enough to make a difference for Ford overall. It has been a supply constrained vehicle and dealers have been selling them above MSRP. The Escape is a successful compact SUV and Ford has introduced a PHEV version. There is only one registered, but it is only just about to be rolled out. The F-150 BEV is not scheduled to begin deliveries until second quarter 2022. Reports are that Ford has pre-orders for over 100,000 units.

BMW

The next ranking make is BMW. As you can see, they have quite a few plug-in models. After initially building the stubby, though fun to drive i3, which is primarily a BEV, though there is an option for a small gasoline range-extender engine, BMW has pivoted to PHEV versions of its ICE lineup. The notable model here is the X5 Xdrive40e. The 2021 version boasts a substantial electric range improvement from only 14 miles to 50 miles, plus a 6-cylinder gas engine. It has become BMW’s top plug in with 252 units. There was also a jump for the X3, though only to 74 units. The C Evolution is a motorcycle.

Hyundai

Hyundai is next and the Kona compact EUV is what is driving sales for them. There are 304 Kona vehicles registered. Hyundai announced that Ioniq will become its EV sub-brand, though the Kona is branded Hyundai.

Nissan

Nissan was one of the first entrants into the EV market with its BEV Leaf in 2010. It’s registration stats have been flat since 2019. As of today, the Leaf is still their only entry, though they have expanded the number of trim levels and improved the range. They are planning to launch an EUV model called the Ariya in 2022.

Honda

Honda is a major automaker that has been largely MIA in the EV space. A few years ago, they introduced the Clarity PHEV. Club members who own one have reported a good experience with it and the electric range is among the highest in the category at 47 miles. Due to Honda pulling back on distribution, the number of registered Claritys has been declining. A small increase this year offered some hope, but I read in the publication, EV Adoption, that Honda has canceled the Clarity PHEV and fuel cell models. Honda has announced a BEV EUV called the Prologue for a model year 2024 introduction, along with an Acura stablemate.

Volvo

 

Volvo has several EVS, mostly PHEVs plus the new BEV, XC40 Recharge. The company saw a spike from its XC90 PHEV to 227 units registered. This high-end, large SUV only gets 18 miles of electric range. The new XC40 Recharge is off to a slow start with 31 units. Volvo has announced an aggressive pivot to EVs with an all-electric lineup by 2030 and has moved EV sales to its online portal.

Porsche

Porsche has also been in the game for a while and is a leader among high-end automakers not named Tesla. Their newest introduction, the BEV Taycan sports car, had the biggest increase to 116 units.

Audi

Audi got into EVs with the A3 PHEV. It didn’t get traction, but the newer BEV E-Tron has been growing, now at 169 units, as well as to a lesser degree the Q5 PHEV compact EUV with 64 units.

Everyone Else

At this point, we start getting into some very small numbers, but I will mention a few others.

Chrysler, which has only one EV, the PHEV Pacifica minivan, rose to 214 units.

Jeep introduced its first EV, the PHEV Wrangler, which had a decent first year at 202 units.

New luxury carmaker Polestar (part of Geely, the owner of Volvo) has only 8 units for its Polestar 2 hatchback. (There were no Polestar 1 vehicles, an expensive, high performance PHEV.)

Mercedes has announced upcoming BEVs, the EQ series, with the EQS (like its S series), EQE (like its E series), and EQB, and electric EUV. The EQS is scheduled to arrive this year. The others will be 2022. Up to this point, Mercedes is another example of a major manufacturer that sells very few EVs. There are 8 models with registered units in the state with the highest being the GLC 350e at a measly 61 units.

Volkswagen, which has also announced aggressive targets for EVs, introduced the ID.4 in this country following a successful introduction of the smaller ID.3 in Europe. At this point, there are only 57 of these registered in CT, but it is still in a rollout phase.

Every screenshot here is taken from the Interactive EV Dashboard, July 2021 on the website. Using the slicers (checkboxes) enables drilldown to individual makes and models as I have done here.

Post by Barry Kresch

Estimates of EV Fleet Composition by Make Within City

This is something we haven’t published in a while. Not that we don’t find it interesting, but the DMV broke apart the geo from the vehicle data and has been giving it to us in a separate file. So we lost this. Their reason was that it was too close to the line of a privacy violation, that if we were to cross a low-volume vehicle with the city, someone could deduce who the owner might be. (We don’t get any personal information in our files.) While I respect their concerns, it never created any issues back when we did have it.

So I took a shot at knitting the information together and here it is. So remember: blame me, not the DMV. I was able to do a little bit of cross-referencing with the Westport Grand List and what I saw lined up nicely.

The chart at the top of the post color-codes the different makes within each city. It is easy to guess which part of the bar is Tesla, but beyond that, it can’t really be seen in a screenshot. This is now a page in the dashboard (page 19 – scroll down for page nav) and there is full interactivity. Slicers are there for both city and vehicle make. Hovering over a chart element will display the make and the count. And the profile changes quite a lot when sliced by city or make as a different socio-economic profile will be reflected in a different vehicle composition.

The two most widely registered Marques are Tesla and Toyota. Here is an excerpt of the Tesla profile:

 

And here is how it contrasts with Toyota, where there is less Fairfield County and more larger cities:

Sometimes it appears as if the profile could be influenced by a single dealer. Dealers are often a pain point in the EV landscape, but that is not the case for all of them. This excerpt is Audi, which, overall, has a fairly low volume. Of course, people can buy their vehicles from someplace other than where they live. But it sure seems like New Country Audi in Greenwich might be making a difference.

The same seems like it could be true of an even lower volume make, Jaguar, where Westport is over-represented. There are Jaguar dealers in Fairfield and Darien. The Fairfield dealer has been a sometime attendee at our meetings and they could be the ones making an effort with the i-Pace.

 

Finally, this is a close-up of a single city, in this case, Greenwich, which has the most EVs of any city in the state. The green represents the 651 Teslas there. The second most-widely registered vehicle make is Porsche with 69 EVs. This is the purple band a couple of places below Tesla. There are 969 total EVs in Greenwich, an increase of 105 over the final 6 months of the year, or 12.2%, which outpaces the rate of increase for the state as a whole.

Interactive EV Dashboard – July 2019 Update

The Department of Motor Vehicles has released its semi-annual update of EV ownership in the State of Connecticut. The update is dated July 1. The DMV only publishes the total on its website. We have obtained a detailed file to analyze the profile of EV ownership in CT. This is a file of all light-vehicle EV registrations. It is not new vehicle sales. It includes both purchased and leased vehicles, whether acquired new or used. It reflects newly acquired vehicles, less any turnover. There were 2136 EVs registered in the first half of 2019, but with a turnover of 628 vehicles, the net increase is 1508.

There is no PII. We received make, model, model year, fuel type, and zip code. We added in census data for population by city and median household income by city. The zip code reflects where the vehicle is registered, which could, in some cases, be different than where it is garaged.

This blog post summarizes some of the highlights and uses screenshots, which are not interactive. This link will take you to the browser version of the dashboard, which has the interactivity. Note: pagination is at the bottom of each page. The dashboard also lives on PBI.com, which we can link you to upon request.

Feel free to contact the club with any questions!

Growth

There are now 10,797 EVs registered in CT, an increase of 16% from Jan 2019. This is not a great number. It paces below the CAGR of about 40% that is necessary (based on the Jan. 1 number) to meet the goals outlined in the ZEV Multistate Action Plan. (Granted, this slower growth is occurring against a backdrop of slowing automobile sales generally.)

 

Fuel Type

53% of EVs are of the Plug-in Hybrid (PHEV) variety. Battery Electric Vehicles (BEV) are growing at a faster rate, mainly due to Tesla. However, the great majority of EV offerings from most other manufacturers are PHEVs, which is driving this. We expect the balance will change in a few years. BEMC refers to Battery Electric Motorcycles, and FCEV refers to Fuel Cell EVs.

Make

The story this year, much like last year, was that most of the growth was driven by Tesla. This is despite whatever sales friction exists due to CT still being among the handful of states that do not allow Tesla to open their own stores, and, of course, Tesla being in the phase-out of the Federal Tax Credit. Hyundai had a modest pop. All of the other manufacturers were either treading water or had lost ground. Honda, which had a boost last year with the PHEV Clarity, has flattened. There is a report in Inside EVs that Honda has pulled back on distribution and is now selling it only in California. The two makes that lost the most ground were Chevrolet and Ford. The chart excerpt below shows the trend of registered EVs by make for the four data points we have going back to 2017. The chart is an excerpt and includes those with the highest numbers as of July 2019.

Tesla now accounts for 34% of EVs registered in the state. As recently as 2018, the numbers for Tesla, Chevrolet, and Toyota were close, but that is no longer the case.

This waterfall chart looks at the contribution to incremental growth between January and July by make. Tesla was responsible for 52% of net EV growth. This was an increase of 780 units out of the net growth of 1508. Hyundai accounted for 32%. All other makes ranged from slightly below 4% to -4%.

Model

The Tesla Model 3 is now the most widely registered Model, less than 2 years after it became available. And, as one can see from the jump in the size of the bar, it is THE story in the EV world for the past 12 months. It is a great early success story, has overwhelmed every other model, and has arguably been something of a double-edged sword for Tesla as the growth of the Models S and X has slowed (more so the S).

The Prius Plug-in is second. (Note: The Prius numbers combine the gen 1 Plug-in Prius with the newer, and better selling, Prius Prime.) In the third position is the Model S, followed by the Chevy Volt. With the discontinuance of the Volt in March 2019, the sales of this model are drastically reduced as GM clears out remaining inventory. On this chart, the number of Volts shows a decline since January, meaning that turnover is greater than newly acquired vehicles being registered. This chart is also an excerpt of the most widely registered models as there are too many to display here.

EVs by City/County

The cities with the highest number of EVs are Stamford (524), Greenwich (489), Westport (431), Fairfield (316), and Norwalk (296). The chart below is an excerpt of the cities with the most EVs.

Fairfield County, in general, is where the largest concentration of EVs can be found, accounting for 40% of EVs in the state.

Per-Capita

On a per-capita basis, Westport is the leading city, followed by Weston, New Canaan, Woodbridge, and Wilton. The chart below is also an excerpt due to space limitations.

In the chart below, the size of the bubble reflects the count of EVs and the coloration is based on per-capita. The darkest blue-green has the highest per-capita and the deepest red is the lowest.

EVs by Zip Code

The final map displays EVs by zip code. Yes, the chart is dense where the populatioin is dense, and it reinforces what we already know from the cities, but gives added granularity. Notice how adjacent zip codes in Fairfield County span the highest to lowest levels of EV representation.

The newest version of the Electric Vehicle Interactive Dashboard has arrived.

 

Highlights

• EV growth was strong in 2018 but there is still a very long way to go to achieve the objectives set forth in the Multi-State ZEV Action plan.
• There are 9,289 registered EVs in the state as of Jan 1, 2019, an increase of 78% from the year ago point in time.
• The increase was largely powered by the Tesla Model 3.
• Plug-in hybrid vehicles (PHEVs) still account for somewhat more than half of all registered EVs.
• The first fuel cell vehicles appeared in the state in 2018.
• Tesla, despite only selling high-priced vehicles, including the higher-priced version of the Model 3, accounts for 31% of all registered EVs.
• The most widely registered model is the plug-in version(s) of the Toyota Prius (combining the first-generation Plug-in Prius and the successor Prius Prime).
• 61% of registered EVs are from the 2017 or 2018 model year.

Introduction

While the DMV is required by statute to publish the number of EVs in CT every six months, they do not publish any sort of breakdown. It is simply a topline number that can be used to measure the overall progress relative to the goals adopted when the state joined the Multi-state ZEV Action Plan (MZAP). Unless one has the financial wherewithal to subscribe to one of the syndicated research services that process automobile registrations, this is the only place to see the breakdown of electric vehicles in CT.

The Electric Vehicle Club of Ct (EVClubCT) has received files from the Connecticut Department of Motor Vehicles for the past three years, and from this we have developed the Interactive EV Dashboard. This blog post summarizes the findings. At the end of this post is information about how to link directly to the dashboard.

Technical Notes

These files have come to us via Freedom of Information Act request, but the timing, the included fields, and format have varied across the years. We work with it as best we can. For example, the file this year did not include fuel type. Even when it did, in 2017 and 2018, the DMV does not have Plug-in Hybrid Vehicles (PHEV) codified as a fuel type. We build that from the model name. The topline numbers published by the DMV do include all EV fuel types, which are Battery Electric Vehicles (BEV), PHEV, and Fuel Cell Electric Vehicles (FCEV).

We have received files from February 2017, March 2018, and January 2019 (actually all vehicles registered as of December 31, 2018). This asynchronous timing, along with our manually applying the fuel type designation, will cause our numbers to be slightly different than the DMV.

The dashboard is simpler this year because we did not receive the city associated with each vehicle, nor did we receive totals to give us a denominator. Consequently, we could not update our analysis by city, county, median income, per capita, and percentage of the fleet. We have make, model, and model year only.

Definitions

The numbers are based on vehicle registrations. NOT SALES. This is the most often misunderstood point about this exercise. In other words, it is cumulative minus any turnover. Vehicles may have been acquired new or used, purchased or leased. Also, the model year is exactly that, the vehicle model year – not the year in which it was sold.

Overall Growth

This blog has published in February that the number of registered EVs grew 78% year over year in 2019. The growth during the 9-month interval covered by the dashboard is 48%. Either number is an improvement over the 35% from the prior year. But the improved growth rate still leaves a big gap between the 9,289 EVs currently registered and the MZAP objective of about 500,000 EVs by 2030. We would need a going forward compounded annual growth rate of about 44% to achieve this level. The growth rate was relatively strong this year with the most significant factor being the pent-up demand for the Model 3.

All of the charts below are from the data in the dashboard, which, as earlier noted, use months other than January for 2017 or 2018.

Fuel Type

PHEVs are still the more dominant fuel-type. At some point, we assume that BEVs will dominate and we note that General Motors has announced going forward that it will only produce BEVs. But the PHEV is an important transitional power-train. As noted by DEEP at their clean transportation forum on January 30, PHEVs have a big impact on reducing fossil fuels and will be with us for some time until infrastructure and battery technology can overcome range anxiety and limitations.

The first fuel cell vehicles have appeared in the file since we began doing this. There were – wait for it – drum roll — TWO! Both are the Toyota Mirai. Toyota, which is heavily invested in hybrids, seems to also be looking to develop FCEVs rather than BEVs. Their only BEV was the short-lived compliance vehicle BEV version of the RAV4. If you think EV charging infrastructure is inadequate, well, there are currently as many refueling options for FCEVs as there are vehicles. No waiting! When last we checked, there was one in Hartford and one in Wallingford. FCEVs are true zero tailpipe emissions vehicles (and like with electricity, there is a variable carbon footprint depending upon how the hydrogen is manufactured). The CT purchase incentive program, CHEAPR, offers a $5,000 rebate for FCEVs, larger than for the other vehicle types. Though there are complaints about the lack of EV charging stations, it is about the hardware and not the power source, as the grid is ubiquitous. That is the nature of the infrastructure challenge facing hydrogen power, along with the high cost of the cars.

Make

Tesla, despite CT not allowing them to open stores in the state, has widened its lead, increasing from 26% to 31% of all registered EVs. 2,894 of the 9,289 EVs are Tesla. The only two other makes to exceed 10% in share are Chevrolet (19%) and Toyota (17%), with Toyota growing at a faster rate than Chevy. Below is an excerpt of the chart showing the 3-year trend by make, and below that, a donut chart showing the vehicle count as a share of the total.

% Of Growth By Make

Tesla was responsible for 42% of the unit growth, followed by Toyota and Honda, both at 11%. The vast majority of automakers were responsible for less than 1% of the growth each.

Model

As noted earlier, the Model 3 was the big story, with 1,025 units registered in CT in 2018, placing it fourth in terms of number of vehicles registered following the Prius (1,533), Model S (1,413), and Volt (1,267). These are the only vehicles with over 1,000 registrations. The Leaf and Bolt follow. One other new car made a modest splash, the PHEV version of the Honda Clarity, now with 409 units registered in 2018. Below is an excerpt.

Model Year

It isn’t surprising that most EVs are of the 2017 and 2018 model years. There were a few 2019 models that sneaked in at the end of the year. If you look at the legend below, you might find it surprising that there is an EV from 1998. It is actually a Ford Ranger. That’s all we know. Is it some one-of-a-kind DIY thing? Or an error in the file (it happens)? We’ll leave it there.

 

Closing Thoughts

• While EV ownership had strong growth in 2018, there is a long way to go to reach the MZEV goals.
• Early signs are pointing to a slower growth year in 2019. EV sales nationally grew 11% in the first quarter of 2019 relative to 2018. (And in Q1 2018, the Model 3 had not yet scaled.) This compares to growth of 81% for the full year of 2018 over 2017. There are relatively few new near-term EV introductions. Among them are a refreshed Leaf with a 150 mile range, the Kia Niro rated for 239 miles, Hyundai Kona rated for 258 miles, 200+ mile luxury vehicles in the Audi E-Tron and the recently introduced Jaguar I-Pace. Tesla will begin producing the lower cost version of the Model 3 and may possibly offer a lease option later this year. Deliveries of the Model Y from Tesla, expected to be another significant launch, will not begin until late 2020, assuming it remains on schedule. GM has canceled the Volt, a fairly large seller by EV standards, and announced a pivot towards a BEV only strategy centered under the Cadillac brand which will take a few years to become manifest.
• The EV Club was advocating for HB 7142, which would have permitted direct sales by a manufacturer without a dealer network (i.e. Tesla at this point in time). While Tesla’s announcement of a move to an Internet sales model has mooted this, the fact remains that this company has an outsize presence in the EV market in the state, though likely it could have been larger. This sales model may also be a consideration for prospective new entrants in the EV space.
• There were a couple of other bright spots outside of Tesla, mainly the Toyota Prius Prime and the Honda Clarity (PHEV version, which has an electric range only slightly below the Volt), but most of the automobile manufacturers are not generating much EV sales volume at this time.
• Both Tesla and GM are in the Federal Tax Credit phase-out period. Many of the newly announced EVs are a few years away from being available.
• Fuel prices have remained fairly low.
• There are a number of policies that the club advocates. Here are some important ones:
  • The CT CHEAPR rebate program does not have an ongoing source of funding and could run out this year.
  • We advocate the Federal Tax Credit be continued, preferably turned into a rebate, and that the 200,000 unit cap per manufacturer be removed.
  • Building codes should be updated to require pre-wiring for EV chargers, with particular attention to multi-unit dwellings.
  • Better time-of-use electrical rates.
  • Incorporation of EVs in public sector fleets.
  • Policies that de-carbonize the grid.
• While there are some encouraging signals, including a study from AAA indicating that one in five drivers say they are likely to go electric for their next vehicle purchase, this is no time to take our foot off the “gas.”

The browser version of the dashboard is available here

There is a Powerpoint, obviously not interactive, of the dashboard visuals downloadable from the home page.

If any reader would like access to the PBI.com version, let us know via the website contact form.