Community Choice Aggregation Can Provide a Cleaner Grid and Lower Electric Rates

EVs enable us to drive with zero emissions. But EVs can be an even cleaner choice when the electricity used to charge the battery comes from a clean grid.

On December 2, at 7:00 PM, the club will host a Zoom meeting where the featured speaker will be Peter Millman of People’s Action for Clean Energy (PACE). He will be speaking to us about Community Choice Aggregation (CCA) and how we can go about making this an option for CT residents.

CCA involves communities controlling power procurement and offering modern energy products and services. These include programs that encourage more rooftop solar, battery storage, energy efficiency, demand response, and EV infrastructure. The goals of CC are to reduce energy costs, lower GHG emissions, and increase resilience. The utility still owns, operates, and maintains the distribution infrastructure.

This is on the docket of the Public Utilities Regulatory Agency (PURA), but it requires action by the legislature as well. Peter will explain the details, the next steps, and what citizens can do to support this initiative.

CCA is operational in a number of other states where it has successfully enabled a cleaner energy mix and lower electric rates.

CCA can happen. This is not tilting at wind turbines!

Polestar Test Drive Event

A picture-perfect Indian summer day set the scene for an EV Club event sponsored by Manhattan Motors, the regional dealer for the new Polestar brand. Polestar is Volvo’s racing brand but has now been spun off as a standalone brand selling high-end EVs.

Polestar vehicles are manufactured by Geely, the parent company of Volvo. There are two Polestar vehicles, the Polestar 1, a plug-in hybrid, and the Polestar 2, a battery-electric vehicle with 233 miles of range and a 0 to 60 MPH sprint in under 5 seconds.

The Polestar 2 starts at about $60,000 with a performance version that sneaks past $70,000. The Polestar 1 starts at $155,000 and there are a few interior options that can add another $5000.

Both of the Polestar models have all-wheel drive. Delivery of these vehicles will begin within a month.

The Polestar distribution model is different than a traditional automobile company and different from Tesla. It sells through dealerships but only has 4 licensed dealerships in the country, 2 in the San Francisco metro area, 1 in Los Angeles, and one in New York City. The company has a “concierge”-style service model and the vehicle is delivered to the consumer’s residence. Unlike with Tesla, they can deliver a vehicle to a CT address because they are a dealership, meaning that Manhattan Motors buys the vehicles from Polestar.  For servicing, Polestar’s sister company is brought into the process. Volvo dealers will be able to service these vehicles. The concierge model extends to service. The car is retrieved from and returned to the customer, and a loaner is provided.

Polestar advises that there will be a subsequent version of the Polestar 2 with a smaller battery pack and without all-wheel drive at a lower price point. No ETA at this time.

EV Incidence and Political Party Registrations by City

As this is being written on Election Day, and with an enormous chasm between the environmental/climate change plans of the two presidential candidates, we thought it a good time to look at how EVs fit into the CT political landscape based on voter registration in Connecticut.

I do not have data at the individual person level. I am working with counts at the city level – of EVs, median household income, and voter registration.

The most highly-correlated factor with respect to EVs is income. With Tesla the dominant, and pricey, make, EVs still carrying a higher cost than ICE generally, and limited supply of affordable used EVs, that isn’t surprising. Also, there is still a significant lack of access to charging in our more urban areas with many people living in multiple unit dwellings. For that reason, in the charts below, I have filtered out the roughly one-third of cities with a median household income of <$75K in order to obtain a sharper focus on the political registrations.

The chart at the top shows EV incidence and voter registration counts by party by city. The bars are all the same size because they total back to 100%. The variations in proportions by each color are driven by the proportion of voter registrations, which come from CT.gov, by party. Red and blue are obvious. The gold represents both independents and minor party registrations. Minor parties are a very small part of that grouping. The line shows EVs as a percentage of all vehicles within each city.

This screengrab is an excerpt. The full chart has been added to the EV Dashboard.

Bipartisan presence of EVs

There is not a significant correlation between voter registration profile and EV incidence. The two top EV cities, Westport and Weston, are Democratic redoubts. The next two cities are New Canaan, where registered Republicans outnumber Democrats by 2:1, and Greenwich which also has a Republican skew. This is followed by Wilton, which is evenly divided, and then Darien, which has a similar profile to New Canaan. We regard this bipartisan profile to be encouraging and feel that this, and the environment in general, shouldn’t be a partisan issue.

2016 Election Profile

CT is a blue state and voted for Clinton in 2016. The two charts below filter the chart by which cities voted for Clinton vs. Trump.  The hypothesis was that the profiles might be more extreme than overall registration, and that turns out to be the case. (The income filter remains in these two charts.)

Looking at the data this way, as presumably, Trump won the most conservative cities, a clear difference emerges with much higher EV incidence in Clinton cities, including Republican-dominant cities that voted for Clinton.

Clinton Cities 2016

Trump Cities 2016

Looking at the data this way, as presumably, Trump won the most conservative cities, a clear difference emerges with much higher EV incidence in Clinton cities, including Republican-dominant cities that voted for Clinton.

Polestar 2 to Spend an Afternoon in Westport for Test Drives

A jazzy new entry in the luxury EV space, the Polestar 2, is being brought by Manhattan Motors to Westport on Saturday, November 7th at 12:00 PM. Test drives will be offered on a first-come-first-served basis.

Judging by the form-factor, it looks like a sport sedan. But it has a hatch and ample cargo space so that it feels like it is fitting in-between a sedan and a crossover. It is clearly targeting Tesla, along with the Jaguar iPace and the Audi eTron.

Location: TecKnow in Bedford Square, Westport

The location will be outside the TecKnow store at Bedford Square, 12 Elm Street in downtown Westport. If you come to the event, please leave the circle area for the Polestar. There is free parking across the street in the Baldwin lot.

Polestar is not exclusively an EV brand. The Polestar 1 is a sporty ICE vehicle Porsche competitor that starts at $155,000. The vehicles are manufactured in China by Geely, which is also the parent company of Volvo. The car shares some architecture with Volvo but is a more futuristic, high-tech brand.

A Polestar 2 base trim level will set you back $59,900, and a loaded vehicle gets to about $72,000. According to the manufacturer website, the EPA rated range is 233 miles delivered from a 78 kWh battery pack.

We have had one club-member do a test-drive to this point. His succinct evaluation: “Impressive.”

Numerous EV Models Appear in Parade

30 EVs participated in this parade, a joint effort between the EV Club of CT and the Sustainable Fairfield Task Force. Parade participation was capped at this number to avoid being overly disruptive to local traffic

There was one novelty vehicle, a 1903 Baker replica. In its day, the Baker was quite the speedster, topping at about 48 MPH. It is a reminder that electricity was the dominant mode of energizing cars around the turn of the previous century.

The parade followed a roughly 25-mile route, beginning at the Westport Metro-North Depot, where the proceedings were kicked off by Westport First Selectman Jim Marpe. The route headed north up Imperial Avenue, jagged over Jesup to then proceed up Main Street, looping around Avery and Myrtle, and taking a left onto the Post Rd. heading East. There it stayed until hitting downtown Fairfield, where it veered off to Old Town Hall and concluded with  a second brief ceremony with Fairfield officials.

Throughout the event, masking was required and social distancing was observed.

Escorting the parade was the Westport Police Tesla Model 3 that has been fully outfitted as a police cruiser.

Deliveries of the newest Tesla Model, the “Y”, have been coming into CT, and this was one of 4 appearing in the parade.

This Toyota Prius Prime, a plug-in hybrid, is one of four plug-in vehicles currently in use by the Westport Police and it was the rear bookend of the parade.

Few CHEAPR Rebates Given in August

Another tepid, desultory, underwhelming (I’m running out of adjectives – feel free to help in the comments) month for the CHEAPR program with only 40 rebates given out and a total dollar amount of $28,000. This is the second-lowest month of the year and continues the dispiriting (another adjective!) trend we have seen since November 2019. One interesting item: there were 9 rebates for the new Toyota RAV4 Prime plug-in hybrid. Between the RAV4 Prime and the Prius Prime, Toyota vehicles dominated the rebate activity. The reporting has been that the plug-in RAV4 Prime is a severely supply-constrained vehicle at present and there was some doubt that any would make it out of California, but apparently, they have.

Note: CHEAPR often restates the prior month when issuing new data. In this case, July has increased from 57 to 62 rebates and it is incorporated into the title graph.

Decision Time

The next CHEAPR meeting is scheduled for October 9 at 11:00 AM.

The Center for Sustainable Energy (CSE) presented a set of proposals for program revisions in July. The agenda includes a vote on the new program. The meeting is scheduled for only one hour, so we don’t expect much discussion. We do not know if this will be an up or down vote on the package or if the items will be considered individually. We know that despite 3 meetings and public comments, there isn’t a consensus on all the items.

This is what we know to the best of our information.

The package that will likely be presented to the board in October will have no differences relative to what was proposed in July.

• No e-bike incentive or even a pilot test. Ix-nay on this from the DEEP attorneys.
• A used-EV income-limited (lower/middle income, or LMI) incentive (non-controversial).
• A supplemental LMI EV incentive (non-controversial).
• No changes to base incentive levels or to the MSRP cap.
• No changes to the much higher fuel-cell vehicle incentive, which stands at $5000 with an MSRP cap of $60,000.

UPDATES as of 10/25/20

Modeling scenarios include:

• Maintaining the current (since 10/19) MSRP cap of $42K or raising it to $50K.
• Base BEV incentives of $2500 or $1500.
• A possible temporary “stimulus” additional sample of $1750 for BEVs and FCEVs, and $500 for PHEVs.
• $500 increase to $2500 for the LMI incentive.
• Possible inclusion of scenarios with base-level incentives less than $1500.

Incentive Levels and MSRP Cap

Much commentary, from board members, public attendees, and public comments, was in favor of raising the base incentives and the MSRP cap to at least where they were before DEEP lowered them in October 2019. These currently stand well below comparable incentive programs in nearby states. The CSE was tasked with modeling scenarios and they forecasted that there was a possibility that demand would exceed available funds, thus risking disruption. This blog doesn’t buy that line of argument for several reasons.

• A pandemic and recession of unknown duration make for a difficult environment in which to model. There is a lot of guesswork here, exacerbated by the fact that there are no empirical data on the take-rates for the new LMI incentives. A disruption would likely only occur if the economy roars back and the participation rates are at the high end of estimates.
• The dealership contingent spoke out for a higher MSRP cap. They argued that leases have grown in popularity to about half of all new car sales, and people can manage a lease payment on a vehicle they can’t afford to buy. Also, we are soon to see a wave of crossover and SUV EV launches, and these popular form factors are more expensive than sedans.
• Based on our analysis, and comments from the dealers, there isn’t much of a used EV market at this time. The incentive will help, but it will take some time for auction bids to be influenced such that inventory can build. Also, used Teslas are probably too expensive for an LMI limited buyer (and we don’t know how the rules will work for them – they may not qualify – something we will seek to find out).
• At the July meeting, when CSE proposed this incentive regime, they advised that the LMI system development would cause it not to be available until Q1 2021. We don’t know if they have been able to work on it during this period when the program isn’t finalized, but there could potentially be a delay.
• There is more money available – DEEP has indicated that the unspent funds from 2020 (they have only given out $398,000 in consumer rebates), as well as unspent bridge financing from 2019, will be rolled over into 2021. This will yield approximately $4.9 million in available funds (compared to the $3 million budget).
• The CHEAPR mission seems to be increasingly skewed towards the equity part of the mission. This blog supports the LMI incentives (and e-bikes, for that matter), but also sees the mission as just getting more EVs on the road. The program has fallen seriously short of that in the past year.

For these reasons, we think the best course is to raise the incentives and collect data. There will be plenty of time to course-correct if necessary. CHEAPR has an important role to play in moving people to drive electric. This is attested to by consumers, dealers, and our data. Let’s allow it to fulfill its potential.

Closing Pet Peeve

The $5000 fuel-cell rebate has never been given out in the 5+ years of the program’s existence, and there is no sign it will be anytime soon. You can’t buy one of these vehicles at present, and there is only 1 public hydrogen refueling station in the state. And yet, DEEP continues to use this as its headline incentive. It is misleading. It can be seen in the first sentence of the first paragraph on the CHEAPR home page. It was spoken out loud by Tracy Babbidge during the Sustainable Fairfield Webinar on September 28th. It was said by Victoria Hackett when she spoke at the Tesla leasing kickoff in February. Those are the occasions we are aware of but this is clearly not inadvertent. They are not helping themselves.

Editors Note: The October 9th meeting did not yield a resolution. A letter from the EV Coalition was debated that proposed a different structure. No vote was taken.

Meeting Details

We encourage members of the public to listen in! This is the Zoom info:

Webinar Information:

Join Zoom Meeting

https://ctdeep.zoom.us/j/99938032925

Meeting ID: 999 3803 2925

One tap mobile

+16468769923,,99938032925# US (New York)

Meeting ID: 999 3803 2925

Find your local number: https://ctdeep.zoom.us/u/adlDH6PJuC

EV Parade to be Part of Green Wheels Expo

The EV Club and Sustainable Fairfield Task Force have partnered for National Drive Electric Week events, including an EV Parade. (The parade is currently fully subscribed.)

Parade Details:

Date: Sunday, September 27th

Time: Check-in is at 9:30 AM. The parade begins at 10:00 AM. It will last for approximately 1 hour.

Route: It begins at the Westport Metro-North Depot, New Haven-bound side. The route goes north through downtown Westport, then east on the Post Road, and ends at Old Town Hall in Fairfield.

We wish to thank all of the public officials who are supporting this event. Westport First Selectman Jim Marpe will give remarks pre-rally at the train station. Fairfield Selectwoman Nancy Lefkowitz will speak at the parade terminus at Old Town Hall. Westport Chief of Police, Foti Koskinas, will provide the parade escort in the Tesla Model 3 police cruiser. Two other WPD cars, a BMW i3 and a Toyota Prius Prime, will also be along for the ride. WPD and the Fairfield PD have worked together to coordinate.

There will also be virtual events, including an interview with EVangelist Jay Leno (yes, that Jay Leno!).

If you have solar and would like to expand it because you are buying an EV

Or if you are starting from zero, this is the process for determining how to size a system and obtain necessary approvals from the utility.

This content was provided by Ron Nelson of Apex Solar

If you have a new construction home or are adding an addition to your home………

ConnectedSolutions program at Eversource

Net Metering

Net Metering is the law of CT for now.

The used car market, in general, is more than double that for new vehicles. That does not appear to be the case for EVs to this point.

CHEAPR Likely to Implement Used EV Incentive in 2021

CHEAPR, the CT state EV purchase incentive program, is considering offering incentives for purchases of used EVs. This incentive would be limited to lower and middle-income individuals/families. There are a number of changes being considered by CHEAPR, but with respect to used EVs, the legislature specifically authorized this incentive, the proposal was well received by the board, and the public comments were favorable. It seems a lock to happen, though there are below the line development tasks that will cause it to not be available until next year.

What is the State of the Used EV Market

We don’t have access to the data that would enable us to definitively answer this. But we have some information that may be useful for drawing inferences.

During the CHEAPR board meeting of July 17th, there was a presentation by the auto-dealership representatives on the board. They stated that there are few used EVs in the marketplace and the prices were low, creating an unvirtuous circle. They support the incentive and think that that it promises to sufficiently stimulate consumer demand so that dealers will be willing to bid more aggressively at auctions to augment the supply in the state.

The used EV incentive will differ from the new car incentive in that it will also apply to independent used car dealers. Used car dealers do not have to be affiliated with a manufacturer. A Google search for “used EVs for sale in CT” brought up a results page consisting of only independent dealers, mainly large ones like Carvana, Iseecars, and CarGurus. Those companies had both paid and organic listings on this first page of the search results. A search for “used Teslas for sale” brought up a largely similar set of sites, except that Tesla itself appeared, as it is in the business of retailing its own used vehicles. There is another company specializing in used Teslas called OnlyUsedTesla.com.

I suspect that the board members who represent the dealerships are not factoring Tesla into their thinking. For them, EVs are still a niche product and many of the non-Tesla EVs in the used marketplace are the first generation (read: low range) models. (We may be at a point where this is beginning to change as later model EVs are now coming off-lease.) And the dealers, based on the search results and their own words, aren’t making a serious effort to source and sell them. The fact that the independents are spending money on sponsored links indicates that there is at least a minimally viable business. Search is highly targeted and can yield a positive return on a small campaign.

Quantify Used EVs from the DMV File

To get some kind of quantification of used EVs relative to new, I went back to the file we recently got from the DMV of all registered EVs in the state as of July 1, just to get an idea of what was entering the market. My proxy for used EVs was vehicles added to the file between January and July with a model year earlier than 2019. This is a rough measure and is reflected in the chart at the top of the post. Each bar represents vehicles added to the file in the first half of the year sorted by make, with the orange portion being those that are categorized as used by our proxy measure. 22% of the EVs added to the file could be characterized as used based on this definition. 47% of the vehicles added are Tesla, but only 10% of those fit this definition of used.

• This, coupled with the information from the dealers, indicates a small used EV market at this point.
• Even though it is small, there is a used EV business.
• The fact that there is no franchise requirement begs the question of whether Tesla could sell used EVs in Milford (or elsewhere in the state) using the same rationale that led to their being able to lease. In the case of new vehicle leasing, customers still have to go out of state to pick up the vehicle. Would that be a requirement if they could sell used?
• The EV Club is supportive of a used CHEAPR EV incentive, but based on this information, along with the LMI restriction, we don’t expect that it will be disbursing large sums in 2021.
• It is important, as used and possibly other incentives, are incorporated into CHEAPR, that the stats page be updated to track them separately.

The CSE, DEEP’s consultant for CHEAPR, has been sent back to model new scenarios and we will see what they forecast.

Turnover Analysis of EV Makes Driving Adoption

When we build our semi-annual EV dashboard with data sourced from the DMV, we, of course, look at trends by vehicle make. The analysis in this post is intended to give a more focused look at the recent impact of the various EV makes by isolating the vehicles that departed between January and July 2020 and comparing that turnover to the new vehicles added in the most recent July file.

The chart above shows that Tesla has low turnover, coupled with a high number of new vehicles added. That is not a surprising result. When analyzing EV adoption data, the answer to almost every question is “Tesla.” But the impact is seen more starkly in this view compared to the “trends by make” or “waterfall” charts in the dashboard. Since the outsized presence of Tesla tends to overwhelm everything else, it makes it hard to visualize any movement that may exist elsewhere. The answer: show the data without Tesla.

What pops on this chart is the contribution increase from Hyundai. This may be an early signal of a serious EV push, followed this past week by the announcement that Hyundai is spinning off its Ioniq marque into a dedicated EV sub-brand (like Volvo with Polestar) and plans 3 new EV model introductions over the next several years, beginning with a mid-sized crossover in 2021.

Toyota, which has occupied a distant number 2 position over the past couple of years with its Prius Prime PHEV, showed a smaller increase on a lower base.

Ford is going in the opposite direction, with more EV turnover than additions. They have an eagerly anticipated launch in 2021 of the Mach-E, a crossover that bears the iconic Mustang logo.

Audi, Land Rover, and Subaru also spiked, but the numbers were low. Audi showed 9 departures and 34 adds for its new e-Tron. Land Rover, just entering the plug-in world (and separate from the Jaguar iPace), went from having 0 EVs to 16. Subaru had one departure and 19 adds.